Only Lombardi Trophy Can Support Packers’ House of Cards

The Packers remain in win-now mode, joining with Aaron Rodgers in a race against Father Time and the collection agency to finally get back to the Super Bowl.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Brian Gutekunst says future salary caps matter.

“It all matters,” the Green Bay Packers’ general manager said at the Scouting Combine. “If I said it didn’t matter, Russ (Ball) might come across the table and grab my throat.”

Gutekunst went on to say the team views the salary cap through three-year windows. Coincidentally, Aaron Rodgers’ long-awaited contract extension, which he signed on Tuesday, includes three manageable years before the pain arrives.

“We are very pleased to be able to come to an agreement with Aaron that keeps him in Green Bay,” Gutekunst said in the official announcement on Tuesday afternoon. “His play on the field and leadership in our locker room remain vital in our pursuit of another Super Bowl title. The agreement also allows us to maintain and enhance what we feel is already a very competitive roster.”

NFL Network reported details of Rodgers’ contract on Tuesday morning. By midday Tuesday, OverTheCap.com had the contract laid out to the best of its ability.

Critically, the extension took a massive bite out of Rodgers’ 2022 scheduled cap charge, producing a 39 percent reduction from the previously scheduled $46.66 million. And it keeps him contractually tied to Green Bay through the 2024 season, though the actual contract runs through 2026.

The Packers remain in win-now mode, joining with Rodgers in a race against Father Time and the collection agency to finally get back to the Super Bowl. At some point, they’ll sign franchise-tagged receiver Davante Adams to a new contract and cornerback Jaire Alexander to a contract extension.

When that happens, the team will have an incredibly top-heavy salary structure in which Rodgers, Adams, Alexander, running back Aaron Jones, left tackle David Bakhtiari, defensive tackle Kenny Clark, outside linebacker Preston Smith and inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell are going to be playing under contracts ranked at or near the top of the league at their positions. And the bottom half of the roster will be filled out by minimum-wage salaries. The hope is the great players will win games and the not-so-great players won’t lose them.

It's a hell of a way of doing business but what’s the alternative? Trade Rodgers and wave the white flag of surrender on trying to win a Super Bowl? Let Campbell sign elsewhere and create a big hole on the defense? Release Preston Smith and create a huge void opposite Rashan Gary at outside linebacker?

With a star-studded roster, the Packers are built to win now. And with a 38-year-old quarterback who presumably will contemplate retirement after every season until he actually retires, Gutekunst is right to shove all his chips to the middle of the table every offseason, force Ball to do all sorts of financial gymnastics and then do a Cristiano Ronaldo and kick the salary cap as far into the future as humanly possible.

It's an enormous gamble, obviously. It’s a house of cards that will be supported by a Lombardi Trophy or collapse like the special teams.

“This is the MVP of the league,” Gutekunst said before the Scouting Combine of working around his quarterback’s colossal contract. “What he means to our football team is so important. To me, you work everything else around that.”

And so they did.

According to NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, Rodgers’ cap hits are $28.5 million in 2022 – an immediate savings of about $18.2 million that will help the Packers get to the salary cap by the Wednesday deadline – $31.6 million in 2023 and $40.7 million in 2024. Paired with the expectations of a significant rise in future salary caps, those are major victories for that aforementioned three-year window.

The problem is the financial reckoning that is coming. In 2025 and 2026, the last two seasons of the contract, Rodgers’ cap numbers are scheduled to soar beyond $55 million. And the dead-cap could be catastrophic.

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If Rodgers were to retire after the 2023 season, the Packers would be faced with $68.2 million of dead cap money. The pain of that can be spread out with a phony-baloney extension, like how the Saints handled Drew Brees’ retirement. Nonetheless, Gutekunst would be paying significant money for a player no longer in the league. That’s obviously not ideal but, again, what’s the alternative?

Credit Gutekunst for recognizing the reality. This is no time for half-measures. Stomp on the gas and go for a Super Bowl or stomp on the gas and throw everyone out of the car.

“I do think we recognize what kind of football team we have and the opportunity that’s in front of us,” Gutekunst said. “But I think there’s, you’re always kind of making sure you can field a competitive team year in and year out. And you’ve got to be mindful of what we’re doing in the future, even though sometimes right now feels like all that matters. You always have to keep that in mind.”

Not too much in mind, though. With a Hall of Fame quarterback nearing the final hours of his career, it’s time to do anything and everything possible to win a championship. No pain, no gain, as the saying goes. If the Packers win a Super Bowl, the financial pain will serve as the Novocaine. Anything short of that will make the pain of a rebuild practically unbearable.

Green Bay Packers: Key 2022 Transactions

Extended: QB Aaron Rodgers

The offseason drama is over. Four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers signed a contract extension with the Packers that significantly lessens his 2022 cap charge while tying him to Green Bay through at least the 2024 season.

Re-Signed: LB De'Vondre Campbell

All-Pro linebacker De'Vondre Campbell will return on a five-year, $50 million contract, Packer Central was the first to report. He turned a one-year, $2 million contract into a Year 1 payout of $16.25 million.

Tendered: WR Allen Lazard

The restricted free agent, and coach Matt LaFleur's beloved "goon," was given the second-rounder of almost $4 million. He'll be able to shop himself around the league until April 22.

Extended: OLB Preston Smith

The Packers extended outside linebacker Preston Smith after he recorded nine sacks in 2021. The upcoming season would have been his final one under contract. The extension resulted in more than $8 million of cap savings and includes sack-based incentives.

Released: OLB Za’Darius Smith

Releasing two-time Pro Bowl outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith produced more than $15 million in cap savings. He missed most of last season with a back injury.

Released: RT Billy Turner

The Packers released offensive lineman Billy Turner, who started 43 games at three positions in his three seasons with the team. Elgton Jenkins or Yosh Nijman could wind up in the lineup.

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