Packer Central

Packers Are Heavy Underdogs for Sunday at Bills

The Green Bay Packers are the biggest underdogs on the board for Week 8 of the NFL season.

Bill Huber

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GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Packers with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback have never been double-digit underdogs.

Until now.

The Packers are 10.5-point underdogs for Sunday night’s game against the Buffalo Bills. That is the biggest spread of the week at SI Sportsbook. The Bills are -549 on the moneyline. That equates to an implied probability of 84.6 percent that the Bills, who are the Super Bowl favorites and coming off their bye, will kick the Packers when they’re down.

“I’m not worried about this squad,” Rodgers said after a dismal 23-21 loss at Washington on Sunday. “In fact, this might be the best thing for us. This week, nobody’s going to give us a chance, going to Buffalo on ‘Sunday Night Football,’ with a chance to get exposed … Shoot, this might be the best thing for us.”

During the Rodgers Era, the Packers have been more than a seven-point underdog in seven games. Five of those were with backups at quarterback.

Dec. 19, 2010: 14.5 at Patriots with Matt Flynn in and Rodgers (concussion) out. Packers lost 31-27 but covered.

Nov. 26, 2017: 14 at Steelers with Brett Hundley in and Rodgers (collarbone) out. Packers lost 31-28 but covered.

Dec. 23, 2017: 8.5 vs. Vikings with Hundley in and Rodgers (collarbone) out. Packers lost 16-0 and did not cover.

Sept. 4, 2014: 8.5 at Seahawks with Rodgers starting. Packers lost 36-16 and did not cover.

Nov. 7, 2021: 7.5 at Chiefs with Jordan Love in and Rodgers (COVID) out. Packers lost 13-7 but covered.

Oct. 28, 2018: 7.5 at Rams with Rodgers starting. Packers lost 29-27 but covered.

Dec. 31, 2017: 7.5 at Detroit with Hundley in and Rodgers (collarbone) out. Packers lost 35-11 and did not cover.

How rare is it for a Rodgers-led Packers team to be even an underdog of more than six points? This marks only the fourth game. The Packers lost the aforementioned games to Seattle and the Rams but beat the then-undefeated Cardinals 24-21 as 6.5-point underdogs last season.

With three decades of quarterbacking greatness, the Packers have been 10-point underdogs just six times since 1992, according to Stathead. That also marks the last time the Packers sprung a huge upset, a 27-13 victory at Detroit as 10-point dogs in 1992.

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.

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