Packers at 49ers: Rest, Rust and Upsetting No. 1 Seed

Can the Green Bay Packers knock off the No. 1-seeded San Francisco 49ers on Saturday? Here is what history says.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers last week became the first No. 7 seed in NFL playoff history to win a wild-card game, which sounds pretty cool until you remember the seventh-best team in the conference wasn’t given admission into the postseason until 2020.

After routing the Dallas Cowboys in that history-making victory on Sunday, the Packers will take a red-hot offense and plenty of momentum into a divisional-round matchup at the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers, who are powerful and well-rested.

So, what’s better? Riding momentum to face a team that might be a bit rusty? Or being well-rested?

Since 1990, the No. 1 seed has been one-and-done in the playoffs 27.3 percent of the time. That’s a surprising figure considering the No. 1 seed: A, was the best team over the course of the season; B, is at home; and, C, is fresh and healthy.

Packers coach Matt LaFleur has some knowledge of the topic. In the divisional round as the No. 1, the Packers beat Seattle in 2020 but lost to San Francisco in 2021.

“There’s a lot of pros and cons to it in terms of just being able to rest guys,” LaFleur said. “But also, I think as a coach you always get a little concerned are you going to get out of your rhythm. But, bottom line is both teams have got to strap it up and go play on Saturday.”

In San Francisco, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan was posed with some of the same rest-vs.-rust dilemmas as LaFleur in previous seasons. In the finale against the Rams, the 49ers didn’t play quarterback Brock Purdy, running back Christian McCaffrey or tight end George Kittle. Other key players, such as receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, defensive end Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner, played less than half the game.

Shanahan had some starters-vs.-starters work during the bye in hopes of striking the right balance between being healthy and sharp.

The rest should be huge for key veterans such as McCaffrey and Williams, in particular, but Purdy hasn’t played since Dec. 31.

“Obviously, it wasn’t like you’re going to have a bunch of days off to just go do whatever you want,” Purdy said. “We came in every day, got good work in, still obviously getting after it with the playbook and little fundamentals for myself that I need to get better at, that have popped up on film and stuff throughout the year. So, we just wanted to keep hammering away at those things. Then just getting into that competitive nature with our defense.”

That the No. 1 has gone down so frequently – Green Bay and Tennessee were swept aside in 2021 – shows the fickle nature of the NFL.

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“I think we’ve had some dominant performances we’ve had when we’ve had no rest,” Shanahan said. “I think we’ve played bad when we’ve had no rest. But, you try to go with how you feel your team is and our team’s ready to go. So, excited to see how we play.”

Over the last five years, an upset has brought at least one upstart team to a divisional-round game against a No. 1 seed. The No. 1 is 6-2:

Last year, the sixth-seeded Giants upset Minnesota in the wild-card round, then got drilled by No. 1 Philadelphia in the divisional round.

In 2021, the sixth-seeded 49ers upset Dallas in the wild-card round, then shocked Green Bay in the cold in the divisional round.

In 2020, the sixth-seeded Rams and Browns scored wild-card upsets, only to lose at No. 1 Green Bay and Kansas City in the divisional round.

In 2019, both No. 6 seeds won. A week later, the Vikings got clobbered at No. 1 San Francisco but Tennessee upset No. 1 Baltimore.

In 2018, both No. 6 seeds won their wild-card matchup but lost in the divisional round, with the Chiefs beating the Colts and the Saints beating the Eagles.

The Packers, obviously, are feeling good about their chances. They’ve won four consecutive games. They peaked at the right time and are relatively healthy, as well. Perhaps most importantly, they’ve got a red-hot quarterback.

“It’s huge,” Jordan Love said of the momentum. “I think coming into the postseason, that’s been huge for us. Kind of got rolling, those three wins back-to-back-to-back. It’s huge for us right now just having that momentum and continue to keep it rolling.”

No. 1 Seed History

Can the Green Bay Packers upset the No. 1-seeded San Francisco 49ers in a divisional-round playoff game on Saturday night?

In 1990, the NFL expanded the playoffs to 12 teams (six per conference), with the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds getting a wild-card bye. In 2020, the playoffs were further expanded to 14 teams (seven per conference), with only the No. 1 seed getting the bye.

From 1990 through 2022, the No. 1 seed:

Lost in divisional round: 18 times (27.3 percent)

Lost in conference championship game: 14 times (21.2 percent)

Reached Super Bowl: 34 times (53.1 percent)

Lost Super Bowl: 19 times (28.8 percent)

Won Super Bowl: 15 times (22.7 percent)

No. 1 seed since expanded 14-game field: 4-2 in divisional round

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