Three Days Until Kickoff: Three Reasons To Worry vs. Bears

The Packers crushed the Bears in Week 12 but there's reason for concern heading into Sunday's rematch.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 12-3, winners of five straight and barreling toward the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. They also crushed the Chicago Bears in their first matchup.

However, there are three reasons to believe Round 2 will be much more difficult than Round 1.

1. Montgomery’s Rushing

For the first time since 1955, the Bears have scored 30-plus points in four consecutive games. It’s easy to see why. Dating to the Week 12 game at Green Bay, the Bears have averaged 151.4 rushing yards per game with at least 121 yards in all five games. In the seven previous games, they surpassed 63 yards just once with a high of 96.

Second-year running back David Montgomery’s been at the forefront. Starting with his 103-yard game at Lambeau Field – a game bolstered obviously by his 57-yard dash on the opening series – Montgomery has rushed for 529 yards and six touchdowns the past five games. That’s more than the first 10 games – 472 yards and one touchdown. He’s on a four-game touchdown streak.

Of the 44 running backs with at least 100 carries, Montgomery is eighth with 3.34 yards after contact per carry, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s third with 52 missed tackles.

While Green Bay’s run defense managed to keep rampaging Titans running back Derrick Henry under wraps last week, it did miss eight tackles, by our unofficial count. A swarming defense limited the damage. The Packers will need to tackle better but continue getting multiple hats to the ball.

“I think they found what works for them and the result of that is how Montgomery’s been running,” Packers defensive lineman Kenny Clark said. “He’s been doing a great job in getting in and out of blocks and running the ball well, so we’re going to have our hands full with them.”

2. Akiem the Dream

Week 12 was a massacre. The Packers scored 41 points – all in the first three quarters – behind four touchdown passes by Rodgers and a combined 163 rushing yards from Jones and Jamaal Williams. Amazingly, standout Bears linebacker Roquan Smith didn’t collect a single solo tackle.

“That’s a great question. I don’t know,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said when asked how his offense accomplished that feat. “I thought our guys played really hard. Up front, we did a nice job winning the line of scrimmage, which I think is imperative when you’re going against a front such as this that has just really great players across the board, has great linebacking play and they’ve got great players in the secondary. It’s one of the best defenses in the National Football League. We didn’t face Akiem Hicks, so that presents a new challenge for us and a big challenge and one that we’re going to have to prepare and be ready for.”

Hicks missed that game with an injured hamstring. While he wouldn’t have practiced on Wednesday, the expectation is their former Pro Bowl defensive lineman will be ready for what could be a must-win game on Sunday. Hicks hasn’t had a sack since Week 3 but has a team-high 19 quarterback hits. Of the 81 interior linemen with at least 200 pass rushes, he’s 16th in PFF’s pass-rushing productivity and ninth with 48 pressures.

3. Situational Superiority

It will be strength vs. strength when it matters most. Offensively, the Packers are second on third down (49.1 percent conversions) and first in the red zone (78.6 percent touchdowns). Defensively, Chicago ranks sixth on third down (37.4 percent) and second in the red zone (51.0 percent).

In a clash of elite units, the Packers’ ability to keep the chains moving and score six points instead of three will be critical. Green Bay is 8-0 when moving the chains on at least 50 percent of third downs. And during its five-game winning streak, it’s scored 16 touchdowns out of 18 possessions inside the 20.

“They have players all over the board, especially in the front seven, that are really talented and they play hard and they obviously have a lot to play for this week, just like we do,” center Corey Linsley said. “So, it’s going to be a heck of a matchup. It has been for a number of years. Even when they weren’t doing so hot, their defense has always been well coached, stout, they’ve been good on third down. They’ve been a good defense for a number of years and they’ll obviously have Akiem back, who’s a really good player and he adds another dimension to that defense.”