Packers at Bears: Three Reasons to Worry

The Green Bay Packers have owned their rivalry over the Chicago Bears over the past three decades and especially the last four years. Here are three reasons why the Bears will turn the tide on Sunday.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur is undefeated against the Chicago Bears, taking an 8-0 record into Sunday’s season-opening game at Soldier Field.

That fact means “nothing” to LaFleur. Improving to 9-0, on the other hand, would mean a lot.

“It’s about going 1-0,” LaFleur said this week. “We all know the rivalry, but not only the rivalry, it’s an NFC North opponent. So, it’s Week 1. Week 1 has a different feel to it always. The intensity – I can still remember our first year opening on the road there in ‘19 and how crazy it was. I would imagine it being the same. It just has a playoff-like feel in Week 1 because everybody’s geared up. The fans are geared up. Our players are geared up. Everybody’s ready to roll and kick off the season.”

Will the Packers extend their Soldier Field winning streak to eight consecutive games? Here are three reasons for worry.

Run Defense

This is the undisputed No. 1 worry. The Packers haven’t fielded a stout defense since the Jurassic. Well, that’s not quite true. Nonetheless, during LaFleur’s first four seasons as coach, the Packers rank 31st with 4.73 yards allowed per carry. Only the Houston Texans, who rank 29th during that span with just 21 wins, have been worse.

The Bears, meanwhile, ranked No. 1 in the NFL last season with 5.40 yards per carry. Quarterback Justin Fields, whose 1,143 rushing yards last year rank second all-time at the position, averaged a league-high 7.14 yards per carry. Khalil Herbert, who has replaced David Montgomery as the No. 1 running back, ranked fifth with 5.67 yards per carry.

Based on history, this is the ultimate strength-vs.-weakness matchup.

Green Bay’s defensive line is a big question mark. Two-time Pro Bowler Kenny Clark is the undisputed driving force of a unit that otherwise is incredibly young. In two years, TJ Slaton has played 588 snaps. As a rookie, Devonte Wyatt played 224 snaps. They’ll be joined by rookies Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks.

Added together, the four players with Clark on depth chart have played 812 career snaps. Jarran Reed, last year’s veteran addition, played almost that many by himself last year.

Maybe this will be a case of addition by subtraction. Slaton had a strong summer, Wyatt had his moments and the rookies flourished against backups in the preseason. Or, maybe the depth won’t be quite ready for primetime and the Bears will run roughshod.

“It’s got to be” better, defensive coordinator Joe Barry said this week. “It was a huge point of emphasis, obviously, all offseason, all through the OTAs and training camp. What a challenge this first game in defending the best rushing offense in the National Football League last year. And then it’s a whole other dynamic when you talk about what Justin brings. It’s going to be a great challenge for us, no doubt.”

Run Offense

If you want to go by last year’s numbers, this category should have fallen under the counterpoint to this story.

Led by Aaron Jones, who ranked sixth in the NFL with 5.26 yards per carry, Green Bay ranked 12th with 4.63 yards per carry while Chicago was 27th with 4.93 yards allowed per carry.

However, Bears GM Ryan Poles went out and bought a defense. The fulcrums of that are the powerhouse linebacker tandem of Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards and defensive tackle Andrew Billings.

Edmunds, a two-time Pro Bowler with the Buffalo Bills, has topped 100 tackles in each of his five seasons. Edwards, the former Wisconsin standout, ranked among the NFL leaders with 159 tackles last season. They are joined by Jack Sanborn. An undrafted free agent out of Wisconsin last year, he had double-digits tackles in three of his six starts, including 11 vs. Green Bay in December.

“We're a little bit bigger, stronger, faster up front and in the middle,” Bears defensive coordinator Alan Williams told reporters in Chicago. “We have more experience and guys that have one year under their belt, so they are setting the edge better. They are getting off the ball better.

“We need to control the line of scrimmage better. We need to play on their side of the line of scrimmage, and it's not just our front four. Our ’backers need to play a little bit more downhill, read our keys. If you add all those things up, I think that means stopping the run better.”

One thing to note: Given the limited practices allowed in training camp, it’s hard for teams to build a passing attack and rushing attack prior to Week 1. The Packers, obviously, had to devote a lot of time to getting Jordan Love ready. Will Green Bay’s rushing attack – even with a veteran offensive line and top-shelf backfield duo of Jones and AJ Dillon – be capable of handling Chicago’s revamped defense?

Who Will Get Open?

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

The Packers will be without one of their premier playmakers with big-play receiver Christian Watson inactive with a hamstring injury. Without Watson, can the Packers make the big plays necessary to win?

Last year, the Packers had 19 completions of 27-plus yards. Five were to Watson, five were to Allen Lazard and three were to Randall Cobb. Heck, Sammy Watkins had two and Marcedes Lewis had one. Romeo Doubs – who might not be at full speed, anyway, due to his injured hamstring – had zero. Of the 63 receivers with at least Doubs’ 42 catches, he ranked 52nd with 10.1 yards per reception.

Doubs will be joined by Samori Toure, who had five catches last year, and three rookies. Can they get open? Can they make the key play on third down? And can they make the explosive plays to set up touchdowns?

Without a real X-factor receiver, it’s hard to consistently move the ball through the air. Just ask the Kansas City Chiefs. With all-world tight end Travis Kelce inactive, MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes couldn’t make enough plays to beat the Detroit Lions on Thursday. Love isn’t Mahomes. Can Doubs and Co. make enough plays to beat the Bears?

Want the other side of the story? Here are three reasons for optimism.

More Green Bay Packers News

The #Packers made their usual Saturday roster moves. One really interesting move. One obviously important non-move.https://t.co/SjQDwgI1vO

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 9, 2023

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