Packers at Broncos: Three Reasons for Optimism

The Green Bay Packers (2-3) will play at the Denver Broncos (1-5) on Sunday. Here are three reasons why Jordan Love and Rashan Gary will get the Packers a key victory.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Coming off back-to-back losses, the well-rested but injury-plagued Green Bay Packers are in desperate need of a victory. Sunday’s game at the Denver Broncos could be just what the doctor ordered.

The Broncos are 1-5. Defensively, they’ve allowed the most points in the NFL. From a yards-per-play perspective, they’ve got the worst run defense and pass defense in the league. Offensively, quarterback Russell Wilson’s numbers are fine, but it hasn’t led to enough points (28 touchdown passes in 21 starts for Denver vs. average of 32 with Seattle) or wins (104-53-1 with Seattle, 5-16 with Denver).

Here are three reasons why the Packers (2-3) will snap a two-game losing streak and get back to .500 with a critical win at Denver.

Return of the Run Game

To be sure, the Miami Dolphins’ 70-point onslaught has skewed a lot of the numbers. Not so for Denver’s run defense, which makes Green Bay’s maligned unit look like a mash-up of its Super Bowl champions from 2010, 1996 and the Lombardi era.

While they played well against the Chiefs last week, the previous four games were a horror show. The Broncos allowed 122 rushing yards and a 5.3 average against Washington, 350 rushing yards and an 8.1 average against Miami, 171 rushing yards and a 5.5 average against Chicago and 234 rushing yards and a 7.3 average against the Jets.

Through six games, the Broncos are allowing 5.59 yards per rushing attempt. That’s the worst mark since the 1950 New York Yankees, according to Pro Football Reference’s Stathead.

Meanwhile, there’s real optimism that the Packers found something with their rushing attack against the Las Vegas Raiders before the bye.

“There’s a feeling that we’re right there,” right tackle Zach Tom said. “When you turn on the film, we are right there.”

No, AJ Dillon didn’t run wild, but he ran with the power and authority that had been lacking in fueling Green Bay’s first 100-yard performance of the season.

“I’m not going to sit there and worry about what it looks like,” Dillon said. “I don’t care what people have to say about yards per carry. I’m going to go make stuff happen. That was kind of the mindset I had in that game.”

More importantly, coach Matt LaFleur called running plays, which allowed the line to get into a flow.

With the presumed return of Aaron Jones this week, the Packers will have their one-two punch to attack a run defense that’s allowing 25 more yards per game than any other unit.

“Aaron Jones is probably the best player on our team,” guard Jon Runyan said this week. “Anytime you’re missing the best player on your team, it’s going to be tough to play without him. Having him back there, he’s going to get through the smallest holes and explode out there for 12, 15 yards. You never know, he might take it to the house.”

Rushing Russell Wilson

Defensive coordinator Joe Barry said this week that Rashan Gary is in line to play more snaps as he continues his remarkable comeback from last year’s torn ACL.

“He’s proven week in and week out that he can handle more with his injury,” Barry said. “I’m hoping that we can get even more production out of him the more we can play him.”

That’s good news for the Packers. And bad news for Russell Wilson.

Packers OLB Rashan Gary vs. the Broncos in 2019 :: Photo by Benny Sieu/USA Today Sports Images

The Broncos have allowed the seventh-highest sack percentage in the NFL. While left tackle Garrett Bolles is a high-level starter, right tackle Mike McGlinchey is a weak link. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s not only allowed five sacks but 23 pressures – fifth-most among offensive tackles. He’s fourth from the bottom in its pass-blocking efficiency, which measures sacks, hits and hurries per pass-rushing snap.

Defensively, Green Bay is 10th in sack percentage. While Gary has been an Army of One among the outside linebackers, defensive tackles Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt and Karl Brooks have been impact rushers.

If Green Bay’s rushers can win and keep Wilson in the pocket, there will be opportunities for big plays in the secondary.

Packers in the Red Zone

The big matchup on Sunday will take place in the red zone.

Offensively, Green Bay is sixth in the red zone (62.5 percent touchdowns) and sixth in goal-to-go situations (90.0 percent). That’s a huge improvement over last year, when the Aaron Rodgers-led offense was 24th in the red zone (51.9 percent) and 32nd in goal-to-go (50.0 percent).

Asked what he liked best about the offense through the first five games, quarterback Jordan Love pointed to that inside-the-20 success.

“I can’t put my finger on one thing,” Love said in explaining the efficiency. “I think it’s just guys are executing and making plays down there and winning: Winning on routes, winning up front with the protection and making plays. That’s when we need it most. We talk about every week in the red zone how much tighter those windows are and how much harder it is than when you’re in the regular field to make those plays, and guys have just stepped up and executed down there.”

Defensively, Denver is 19th in the red zone and 12th in goal-to-go. However, after opponents went a combined 13-of-16 against the Broncos in the first four games – including 9-of-9 by Washington in Week 2 and Miami in Week 3 – the Jets and Chiefs the last two weeks scored one touchdown in 10 red-zone possessions.

In the Kansas City game, the Broncos limited Patrick Mahomes to 3-of-8 passing for 13 yards with one touchdown and one interception, a huge reason why the Chiefs scored only 19 points despite Mahomes reaching 300 passing yards.

Love hasn’t been great in the red zone with a 50.0 percent completion rate but he’s thrown six touchdown passes and run for two others. His legs could be an X-factor.

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For a team to win, its high-priced players must perform like, well, high-priced players.

From a financial perspective, just look at the #Packers' salary cap and who might not/will not play vs. Denver. ⤵️⤵️https://t.co/QFw0TsMCMr

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 21, 2023

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