Packers at Falcons: Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Atlanta Falcons haven’t posted a winning record since 2017. They might have the most limited passing attack in the NFL. They ranked 27th in points allowed the last two seasons.
However, the Falcons appear to have taken flight. With an elite rushing attack and an ascending defense, they’ll pose an enormous challenge for the potentially short-handed Green Bay Packers on Sunday.
As opposed to the three reasons for optimism, here are this week’s three reasons to worry.
1. Bijan Robinson Brings Extra Mustard
Last season, the Falcons ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards per game and fourth in rushing yards per attempt. To that elite rushing attack, they used the eighth pick of this year’s draft on Texas’ Bijan Robinson, one of the top running back prospects in years and the favorite to win AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry called Robinson “great” and “elite.” One game into his NFL career. However, Barry’s book of knowledge goes deeper than Robinson’s impressive debut against Carolina. Barry took note of Robinson whenever he was scouting defensive players who were playing against the Longhorns.
“It’s not a huge sample size, at least from what he’s done in the NFL,” Barry said on Thursday. “It was limited in preseason and just the one game, but even going back a little bit of the film that I saw [before the draft], I distinctly remember, it’s like, ‘Oh, my God, he always makes the first guy miss.’ That’s an unbelievable trait for a running back, obviously, to make people miss and miss tackles.
“He’s an elite back. Obviously, a top-10 pick and he’s of those do-it-all backs. He can catch the ball, he can run the ball.” They’re able to do … some of the things we do with Aaron Jones. He’s not a good back; he’s an elite back.”
The Packers must contend with Falcons RB Bijan Robinson.
Photo by Dale Zanine/USA Today Sports Images
Against Carolina, Robinson carried 10 times for 56 yards and caught six passes for 27 yards. According to Pro Football Focus, of the 34 backs with at least 10 carries in Week 1, Robinson ranks 11th in yards after contact on rushing plays (3.10). Among all players, regardless of position, he’s tied for first with four missed tackles after receptions.
The Packers’ horrendous run defense showed some teeth against the Bears last week. They’ll have to do it again against Robinson and 220-pound Tyler Allgeier, who rushed for 1,035 yards on a 4.9-yard average as a rookie last year.
“Obviously, new challenge this week,” Barry said, “but it’s a big one because they want to run the game and they really know how to run the ball and they do a great job with it.”
2. Deep Thoughts … Potentially
With the Falcons’ featuring such a running back-focused offense – Robinson and Allgeier received 71 percent of the touches against Carolina – it would be easy for Green Bay’s defense to get a bit of tunnel vision.
However, the Falcons do have two elite perimeter weapons with receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. If the Packers are too focused on Robinson and Allgeier, they’ll see the ball soaring over their heads.
“Yeah, that’s a great point,” defensive backs coach Ryan Downard said on Thursday. “The first slide that I put up is a big picture of a bald eagle starting right at them. Underneath it, it says ‘Disciplined Eyes.’ To play safety in this league, that is one of the most important things – if not the most important thing – and so that shows up in play-action teams. If you don’t properly key and have good tempo on those keys with your timing, you can get hit for big ones. So, we’ve got to be locked and reading our keys properly.”
The Packers are over the moon about rookie tight end Luke Musgrave’s potential. That’s nothing compared to Pitts, who at 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds ran his 40 in 4.44 seconds at the 2021 Scouting Combine. The fourth pick of the 2021 draft, he caught 68 passes for 1,026 yards as a rookie. Last week, he had a 34-yard catch on quarterback Desmond Ridder’s only deep shot.
“When I was watching him come out of college looking at DBs in the SEC, 50-50 balls were more like 90-10 balls for him. He never missed them,” defensive passing game coordinator Greg Williams said. “That’s going to be another challenge for all of us as we go. Everybody understands [his] skill-set and understands that we have to step up to that challenge.”
3. Who Will Make a Play for Packers?
The Packers might have the edge at quarterback with Jordan Love vs. Ridder, but Ridder could have the big edge in terms of supporting casts.
That’s because the Packers could be without their big-play receiver, Christian Watson, and their star running back, Aaron Jones. Both are questionable.
Watson, who missed Week 1 at Chicago with a hamstring injury, didn’t practice on Wednesday and Thursday and was limited participation on Friday, his first practice in two-and-a-half weeks. If Watson plays, will he be at full speed? And for how many snaps? Jones, who dominated at Chicago with two long receptions, suffered a hamstring injury vs. the Bears and didn’t practice all week. If Jones plays, will he be anywhere near his playmaking best?
If it comes to it, can Green Bay cobble together a winning offense with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave catching passes and AJ Dillon and Emanuel Wilson running the ball?
“That’s the NFL. Trying to stay healthy,” Love said. “Obviously, when guys get banged up and if they can’t go, it’s always a next-man-up mentality. But that’s why everybody gets reps during practice, and they’ve got to be on their Ps and Qs and understand the game plan in and out so, if they get thrown in a situation where they’ve got to play, they know what they’re doing.”
More Green Bay Packers News
Packers-Falcons: Three reasons why Packers will win
