Packers at Raiders: Three Reasons to Worry

The Green Bay Packers (2-2) will battle the Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) on “Monday Night Football.” Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose to Davante Adams and Co.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have a chance to get to their bye week with a winning record. To do it, they’ll have to beat the Las Vegas Raiders, who have lost three straight despite a roster featuring some of the NFL’s biggest stars.

Who will win this Monday night clash? Here are three reasons why the Packers will go bust in Sin City.

1. By Gosh, It’s Josh Jacobs

With only the Monday night game remaining on the Week 5 docket, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is averaging a league-worst 2.68 yards per carry.

So, why is Jacobs listed among the reasons to worry?

Because he’s a great back, no matter what the stats say, and the Packers’ run defense, as usual, is terrible.

With 1,653 rushing yards, a 4.86-yard average and 12 rushing touchdowns last year, Jacobs led the NFL in rushing by about 100 yards. He entered this season needing 658 rushing yards to eclipse Hall of Famer Marcus Allen for the most yards by a Raiders running back through five seasons.

He’s also an adept receiver. With 53 receptions for 400 yards last year, he finished the season with a league-high 2,053 scrimmage yards. Even amid his slow start as a runner, he entered the week leading all NFL running backs with 173 receiving yards.

“Great running back,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “He can do everything. He can do it all. We’ve got to play with great technique, execute the call and we’ve got to win up front.”

Green Bay’s run defense is off to its usual terrible start. It ranks 26th in rushing yards allowed per game (139.5) and 28th in rushing yards per attempt (4.95).

An obvious solution to the Packers’ problems is putting a safety in the box to provide an extra run defender. That’s mostly an impossibility for this game, however, considering the guy in the No. 17 jersey. So, it will be up to Green Bay’s defensive front to do what it hasn’t done with regularity: win individual matchups, stay in their gaps and tackle the ball-carrier. Again and again and again.

“I just believe in our guys, man,” Clark said. “I believe in our process, I believe in the work that we put in. Every day, we’re putting in work. We’re not bull-shitting by any means. We come here to work. I just believe in that. I believe in our process, I believe in what we do. At the end of the day, it’s all about consistency.

“Somebody might run the ball 40 times and six times out of those 40 it’s going to be explosive and it will look like you got ran up and down. It’s all about consistency. It’s all about consistency, play in and play out. Teams know that. Teams know they’ve got to stick to the run. That’s why you’ve got guys running the ball 40 times. Atlanta was down 12 points and they’re still running the ball, they’re still running the ball. Teams know that. We’ve got to be consistent. We understand that.”

Josh Jacobs vs. the Packers in 2019 :: Photo by Mark Hoffman/USA Today Sports Images

2. Dominant Davante Adams

The Raiders make defenses pick their poison. Do they put an extra defender in the box to contend with Jacobs? Or do they devote an extra defensive back to deal with All-Pro receiver Davante Adams?

The Packers presumably will regain the All-Pro services of cornerback Jaire Alexander. There have been times when Alexander went to defensive coordinator Joe Barry to tell him he wanted the one-on-one matchup. How about this week?

“Nah, I don’t think anything need to be said,” Alexander said. “I think the coaches got a good plan and we’ll stick with it.”

Alexander is one of the best in the business, but Adams is one of the best of all-time. To expect Alexander to shut down Adams for 30 or 40 passing plays is a fool’s errand. And he probably won’t get that chance, anyway.

Adams has at least six receptions in every game thanks in part to how he’s moved around the formation. For instance, according to Pro Football Focus, he caught only 2-of-5 passes for 16 yards against Denver’s stud corner, Patrick Surtain, but caught all four targets for 50 yards against other defenders.

Of 54 receivers to be targeted at least 20 times before Sunday’s games, Adams ranked 10th with 2.80 yards per pass route, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s the same player he was in Green Bay. He can win short and deep. He can make defenders miss or he can get the jump ball.

Here’s the X-factor: With the Packers, Adams was a lethal receiver in the slot. He hasn’t moved inside much this season. What if he does? Will Alexander follow him inside, with Keisean Nixon bouncing outside? Or will Nixon stay in the slot and be the man on Adams?

“It’ll definitely be different than any head-to-head, for lack of better words, than I’ve had in the past,” Adams said. “But it’ll be just like the other ones in the sense that we’re not going to be lined up across from each other every play. He’s not going to follow me probably every single place and that’s just by their defensive scheme.

“I move around a lot and different things like that, and it’s just really not how the game is played too much these days. You don’t really see one guy just going wherever a guy is because it gives up a lot of tells of what the defense is doing and just the way that they scheme. So, the times that we’ll have, we’ll definitely go and compete, but it won’t be some, we line up on each other 70 snaps across from each other the whole game. It’ll be fun either way.”

The complementary piece to this story will go live on Monday morning. Until then, here are three reasons why the #Packers will beat the #Raiders on Monday night. ⬇️⬇️https://t.co/D3g0pLtwq2

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 8, 2023

3. Mad Maxx Crosby

The Raiders’ defense is off to a poor start. Entering Monday, it ranks 27th in yards allowed per play overall, 23rd in rushing yards per play and 27th in passing yards per play. It’s 30th in sack percentage, 32nd in interception percentage and 26th on third down.

The Raiders do have one indomitable, game-wrecking defender: defensive end Maxx Crosby.

“I just think it’s his tenacity in which he plays the game,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “Obviously, he’s incredibly talented, but I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a guy that works as hard as he does and can sustain that for 70 plays. He rarely comes out of the game and he’s going to give you everything he has on every play.”

Since entering the NFL in 2019, Crosby ranks ninth in the NFL with 41.5 sacks. Last season, he ranked eighth with 12.5 sacks. A constant menace, he was third with 81 pressures. He’s much more than just a pass rusher, though. His 88 tackles were 22 more than any other edge defender. His 22 tackles for losses led the NFL.

What’s remarkable is Crosby’s workload.

Rashan Gary, who like Crosby entered the NFL in 2019, has never played more than 51 snaps in a game. Crosby has played at least that many snaps in 22 consecutive games. He’s played at least 90 percent of the snaps in 21 consecutive games, including a staggering 65-of-65 against the Chargers last week, when he had two sacks.

“He is relentless,” LaFleur said. “If you think you have him blocked for a second and you let up, he ends up finding a way to swim you or maneuver around you and hit the quarterback. He is constantly hitting the quarterback whether the quarterback’s got the ball in his hands or not or he’s just releasing it. This guy is a special player. He’s one of the best players in this league.”

Crosby lines up mostly on the defense’s left side, meaning a matchup against right tackle Zach Tom. Tom opened the season with three excellent games but struggled against the Lions last Thursday night. A knee injury sustained on the game-winning drive against the Saints no doubt was a big factor in his performance.

Tom was not given an injury designation, so he’ll be in the starting lineup. Will he be healthy enough to keep Crosby from pummeling Jordan Love and Aaron Jones?

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A lot has been written and said about Jordan Love's NFL-worst completion percentage. Of course, it's not all Love's fault. ⬇️https://t.co/6oGvnIJIGB

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 8, 2023

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