Three Reasons for Packers to Worry Today at Steelers
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Sunday’s game between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers is a statistical oddity.
Offensively, the Packers average more points, yards, passing yards and rushing yards than the Steelers. The same is true on defense, with the Packers allowing fewer points, yards, passing yards and rushing yards than the Steelers.
Pittsburgh’s offense has been held to less than 300 yards in six of eight games, though that’s partially a byproduct of facing the powerhouse defenses of the Ravens, Browns and 49ers. That vaunted defense? It ranks 31st in yards allowed per game.
Nonetheless, the Steelers are 5-3 and the Packers are 3-5. Here are three reasons why Pittsburgh will beat Green Bay on Sunday.
1. Turnovers
Looking at all those numbers – including this crazy stat – how on earth do the Steelers have the better record? Why, if the season were to end today, would the Steelers be playoff-bound?
Simple.
Turnovers.
Pittsburgh is tied for third in the NFL at plus-8. It ranks third with 16 takeaways. The Steelers take the ball way with interceptions; seven players have combined for eight. And they take it away with fumbles; they’ve forced 12, which is four times as many as the Packers.
“This is a very competitive football team,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “They pride themselves on physicality, and it shows up all over the tape. They’ve got a lot of guys that are big, strong, physical, and they made plays when it mattered most, and that’s some of those big plays are led by a lot of turnovers they create, or takeaways on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve got a lot of game-wreckers up front and we’re going to have to do a great job with them.”
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers have turned over the football eight times, which is tied for fifth-fewest. Struggling quarterback Kenny Pickett does one thing well, and that’s take care of the football. He’s gone four consecutive games without throwing an interception. The Steelers’ two lost fumbles are by a returner who’s no longer on the team.
Of note: The Steelers are second in the league with eight takeaways on fumbles. The Packers are tied for No. 1 in the league with just two lost fumbles; both of those came last week.
2. T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith Applying Pressure
The best player on the field will be Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt. A Wisconsin native and former Wisconsin star, the Packers could have drafted Watt. Instead, they’ll have to deal with him on Sunday.
Watt has 9.5 sacks, which is a half-sack behind Minnesota’s Danielle Hunter for the NFL lead. Of those, 7.5 have come at home. With an NFL-high 15 sacks in 2020 and an NFL-record 22.5 sacks in 2021, when he was named NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Watt has 87 sacks in 95 career games. His brother, J.J. Watt, ranks second all-time with 88 sacks in his first 100 games, so T.J. figures to have family bragging rights soon.
Watt is an all-around brilliant player. He’s added one interception, six passes defensed, two forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries. The Packers – and quarterback Jordan Love, in particular – will have to be wary of his ball-stripping ability. Watt led the league with eight forced fumbles in 2019 and has 25 in seven seasons. Love has been pretty good in that regard. He’s fumbled four times (lost zero) – a solid number for a quarterback.
Watt’s sidekick, Alex Highsmith, is no slouch. He had 14.5 sacks and a league-leading five forced fumbles in 2022, and has 4.5 sacks and two forced fumbles this season.
According to Pro Football Focus, among edge rushers, Watt ranks ninth in pressures and Highsmith is 13th.
“T.J.’s relentless. He is one of those game-wreckers,” LaFleur said. “And then on the other side Highsmith is a baller as well. And then not to mention all the guys they’ve got in the interior line. Obviously, (Cameron) Heyward’s been doing it for a long time at a really elite level. Their front is a problem.”
Watt rushes almost exclusively from the defense’s left, meaning he’ll battle right tackle Zach Tom. Highsmith will face Yosh Nijman and/or Rasheed Walker.
“He’s got a good get-off and he really works everything off of that,” Tom said. “You’ve got to beat his speed first and then work everything else off of that.”
Back to Watt: Getting to face the Packers is no big deal. His parents and grandparents were “huge” Packers fans, Watt said this week. “Once J.J. got to the NFL, it was pretty much all Texans. … When I played in Green Bay [in 2021], that was a special one. At this point, it’s just another opponent – and another tough one, at that.”
3. The Biggest Mismatch?
Steelers WR Diontae Johnson scores over Packers CB Jaire Alexander in 2021.
Photo by Benny Sieu/USA Today Sports Images
No doubt defensive coordinator Joe Barry would feel a lot better headed into Sunday if he could match Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas against George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. But that won’t be the case. Alexander is not expected to play because of a shoulder injury and Douglas was traded to Buffalo and will face Denver on Monday.
So, that will leave rookie Carrington Valentine and journeyman Corey Ballentine as the starting corners. Valentine is a seventh-round pick with four starts under his belt. In his only road start, Russell Wilson and Courtland Sutton got after him at Denver. Ballentine, a sixth-round pick by the Giants in 2019, hasn’t started a game since 2020 and went almost two calendar years without playing a defensive snap.
“Anytime you’re without starters or elite players, it’s going to hurt,” Barry said. “They’re going to kick the ball off and we’re going to have to play. Those kids have been doing a good job filling in. I tell you guys all the time, if you prepare like you’re one play away from being a starter, that’s the mindset that we preach. Whoever’s got to go out on Sunday will be ready.”
They had better be. While Pickett has struggled, Pickens and Johnson are problems. Pickens, who caught 52 passes for 801 yards as a rookie, is on pace to top 1,000 yards this season. Johnson was a Pro Bowler in 2021 and is coming off seasons of 88 catches in 2020, 107 catches in 2021 and 86 catches in 2022.
Pickens caught two passes for minus-1 yard last Thursday against Tennessee. He figures to be a focal point of the attack on Sunday.
“He’s an unbelievable player,” Pickett told reporters in Pittsburgh this week. “We’ve got to give him the football. If we leave him in the boundary, it's a very easy place to get double. So, moving him around, having him do some different things. Not being a sitting target where they can count on him being in one place is a start.”
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