Packers Buried Under Third-and-Long Avalanche Against Lions

It’s little wonder why the Green Bay Packers were crushed by the Detroit Lions on Thursday night. Just look at how first and second down contributed to what happened on third down.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – NFL games are won and lost on third down.

Unless you’re the Green Bay Packers, who lost Thursday night’s game against the Detroit Lions on first and second down.

The Jordan Love-led Packers offense lined up 12 times on third down. The average distance required was 9.92 yards. Five were third-and-15 or longer.

“It was very humbling and sometimes that happens, but we just can’t continue to go backward,” coach Matt LaFleur said afterward. “We keep going backward and we’re in third-and-long situations.”

The Packers put the transmission into reverse and stomped on the gas from the start. On the opening possession, following a big interception by Rudy Ford, a second-down sack turned into third-and-19. On the next series, a first-down sack created a third-and-16.

“It’s not where you want to be, especially when you’re playing the Lions and they’ve got a really good pass rush up front,” said right guard Jon Runyan, who played through an early ankle injury. “I think their defensive line’s definitely a strength of their team – defense and offensive line.

“When they’re able to know what the situation is and know they’re going to have to get after the quarterback, that makes it hard on us to hold up. We’re putting ourselves in those second-and-10s, third-and-12s and all those types of things where you just not want to be in. We’ve got to be ahead of the sticks. I thought we did a better job in that second half, but the first half the last two weeks have just been unacceptable for us.”

Third-and-long is hard, no matter the quarterback. The league median conversion rate on third-and-10 or longer is 18.8 percent. Crank it up to third-and-15 or longer, and the entire NFL’s success rate is 8-of-132 or 6.1 percent. The Packers went 0-for-5 on those third-and-longs vs. Detroit.

With the Packers trailing 24-3 by early in the second quarter and still without a first down, it was Mission Impossible for Love. By the end of the night, he put up some reasonable numbers – 23-of-36 passing (63.9 percent) for 246 yards – but there was plenty of irrelevant third-and-long fluff serving as lipstick on a pig. He was 4-of-5 for 46 yards, the equivalent of empty calories since none of those completions got close to moving the chains.

Packers coach Matt LaFleur had no answers against the Lions :: Photo by Mark Hoffman/USA Today Sports Images

With some bonus time to get ready for Monday night’s game at the Las Vegas Raiders, LaFleur must come up with a much better offensive formula. Running the ball or some quick completions on the early downs would help the Packers avoid the inescapable pit of third-and-long.

Green Bay had 23 snaps on first down. With six plays losing yardage, four gaining 0 yards and one turnover, the Packers failed miserably 11 times. By comparison, the Lions’ only negative-yardage play was Jared Goff taking a knee to run out the clock.

Overall, Green Bay ranks 11th in the NFL with a 42.6 percent conversion rate on third down. That’s good. The breakdown via SportRadar is telling.

Third-and-1: Sixth in the NFL at 84.7 percent.

Third-and-2 to third-and-6: Fifth at 60.0 percent

Third-and-7 to third-and-10: Eighth at 38.9 percent.

Third-and-11-plus: 22nd at 7.1 percent.

In totality, from third-and-1 to third-and-4, Green Bay is fourth with a 75.0 percent conversion rate. On third-and-5 and longer, that plunges to 28.2 percent.

Through four games, Green Bay’s average third down requires 8.2 yards. That’s the third-longest in the NFL and 1.3 yards longer than the league median.

“It’s not what you want,” Love said. “It’s kind of the same exact thing that happened last week with the Saints. We weren’t able to get anything going. They’re stuffing our run. We’re getting in these third- and second-and-long situations where we’re throwing the ball and going three-and-out consistently.”

Packers on Third Down vs. Lions

First Quarter

First series: Third-and-19. Result: Completion to Romeo Doubs for 9 yards.

Second series: Third-and-16. Incomplete pass to AJ Dillon (and holding on Jon Runyan).

Third series: Third-and-3. Incomplete pass to Doubs.

Second Quarter

Fourth series: None (first-play interception).

Fifth series: Third-and-7. Incomplete to Christian Watson (who was short of the sticks, anyway).

Sixth series: Third-and-4. Defensive offside for first down.

Sixth series: Third-and-21. Completion to Doubs for 16 yards.

Seventh series: Third-and-4. Completion to Josiah Deguara for 13 yards with 7 seconds left in first half.

Third Quarter

Eighth series: Third-and-1. Completion to Doubs for 5 yards.

Eighth series: Third-and-15. Completion to Josiah Deguara for 6 yards (which set up a fourth-and-9 conversion to Doubs and, ultimately, a touchdown).

Ninth series: Third-and-21. Completion to Doubs for 15 yards.

Fourth Quarter

10th series: None on second touchdown drive.

11th series: Third-and-1. Dillon run for 6 yards.

12th series: Third-and-7. Incomplete pass to Dontayvion Wicks.

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The #Packers got their ass kicked, and were whooped, humiliated and manhandled. Those were coach Matt LaFleur’s words. They’ve got to run the ball, he said.

After Aaron Jones got his first carry down 24-3.https://t.co/XhW3OFsQ7q

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 29, 2023

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