Packers First-Round Prediction: Yes, a Receiver

The Green Bay Packers haven’t drafted a receiver in the first round in more than two decades. Here’s why that streak will end on Thursday night.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Hey, I’ve got some trivia for you.

Did you know the Green Bay Packers haven’t drafted a receiver in the first round since 2002? Javon Walker’s name ring a bell?

OK, of course you know that. Everyone knows that. Packers fans born and unborn know that. Little kids who bounced on their draft-obsessed father’s knee for a story at bedtime are now telling that story to their kids.

Really, you’d think it was the longest streak in the history of humanity. It’s not, but it’s a remarkable feat, nonetheless, almost on par with the Vikings and Lions avoiding NFL championships.

Someday, the Packers will draft a receiver in the first round. Forever’s a long time, after all. It’s bound to happen one of these years.

In fact, I think this is the year it happens.

Yes, the Packers are going to draft a receiver in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. His name? Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Here’s why.

General manager Brian Gutekunst just traded the longtime face of the franchise, Aaron Rodgers, and willingly swallowed $40 million of dead cap to get out of a convoluted $150 million contract that the parties agreed to last offseason.

With that, it’s Jordan Love’s turn at quarterback. Gutekunst drafted Love in the first round in 2020, knowing full well it would draw the ire of Rodgers. That decision set off the chain of events that led to Rodgers winning MVP in 2020 and 2021 and getting the monstrosity of a contract that followed.

The Packers need Love to succeed so they can rebound quickly into their customary role as championship contenders. Gutekunst needs Love to succeed to keep his job.

That means Gutekunst needs to give Love a fighting chance. As it stands with the draft ready to start tonight, the Packers have two receivers/tight ends who caught more than 13 passes last season. Two. Good luck to any quarterback inheriting that perimeter crew, let alone a quarterback facing the enormous pressure of replacing a legend.

Smith-Njigba is a great prospect. In 2021 at Ohio State, he caught more passes for more yards than Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. That’s no small achievement. They were the NFL’s All-Rookie receivers last year, with Wilson winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. That doesn’t mean Smith-Njigba is better than those players but it shows he’s incredibly talented.

He was unstoppable at Ohio State. He ranked first nationally with 4.01 yards per target, was 9-of-10 in contested-catch situations and caught 13-of-18 deep passes. He was in the top four in yards after the catch per catch and broken tackles.

He’s a superior athlete, too. The 40-yard time of 4.52 seconds was fine; the 20-yard shuttle of 3.93 seconds wasn’t just the fastest among receivers at this year’s Scouting Combine, though it’s true. Not just the fastest for any player at this year’s Combine, though it’s also true.

Indeed, it was the fastest by any player at any position over the last six years. The shuttle shows a player’s change-of-direction agility, a key trait for a slot receiver. At 6-foot 5/8 and 196 pounds, he’s got nice size, too.

“I just think my playmaking ability is second to none in this draft,” he said at the Combine. “I see myself as a top-five player, not just receiver. I see myself as a top-five player in this draft, just being able to make plays and given the opportunities, you know, you throw me the ball seven to nine times, I can win you the game. And I think that speaks for itself.”

Smith-Njigba would be a great fit in Green Bay. He dominated from the slot at Ohio State, so he’d slide right between Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. With Watson stretching the field vertically, Smith-Njigba would have room in the middle of the field. Or, with Smith-Njigba attracting attention over the middle, Watson would have one-on-ones deep.

The 2023 season has to be all about Love. He needs to get better throughout the spring and training camp. He needs to get better from September to October, October to November, November to December. There’s only one way for Love to improve, and that’s giving him a legitimate group of targets in the passing game.

Rodgers and the Packers went 6-10 during his debut season of 2008. It’s hard to envision Love leading the Packers into the playoffs in 2023. That’s OK, so long as the upcoming season is the launching point into the future. The chemistry and camaraderie Love can build with his young receivers in 2023 will be absolutely critical as the team hopes to bounce back quickly.

As the consensus No. 1 receiver in the draft, it’s possible Smith-Njigba will be off the board before Green Bay is on the clock at No. 13. If that’s the case, the guess is Gutekunst will trade back a bit and select Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid.

Kincaid is the Smith-Njigba of the tight end class. He is a superior pass-catching threat with tremendous route-running ability and the best hands in the draft. Jermichael Finley’s 61 receptions in 2012 are the most by a Packers tight end. Kincaid could break that record by the time the calendar turns to December.

Whether it’s Watson, Doubs and Smith-Njigba or Watson, Doubs and Kincaid, they’d give Love the playmaking ability to have the type of success he – and the team – needs in this transition season.

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How big of a deal was it for the #Packers to move from 15th to 13th, historically speaking? I figured there'd be a difference. And ... there is.https://t.co/MOmSwVwMcL

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) April 26, 2023

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