Packers Need to be Ready to Air It Out

The Packers are breaking in a new starting quarterback this season. Opposing defenses are likely to play them as such. That doesn't mean the team should try to protect Jordan Love.

Author:
Jacob Westendorf
Publish date:
Aug 18, 2023 8:20 AM EDT

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Green Bay Packers

You know the adage.

A good defense and running game are a young quarterback's best friends.

There's some truth to that. The common thought for the Green Bay Packers this year is that they'll need to lean on their running game to help protect their young quarterback.

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon form as good of a running back tandem as there is in the NFL. Certainly, they'll be there for Jordan Love as he gets acclimated as the team's starter.

While there's no question that's the strength of the Packers' offense, it flies in the face of what is more successful in the modern NFL.

The days of winning with a defense and running game are long gone. “Defense wins championships” is mostly an outdated statement.

The final score of last year's Super Bowl was 38-35. In order to win, scoring points is at a premium. And the fastest route to scoring points is through the air.

The Packers have reaped the spoils of one of the most potent aerial attacks in football for the last 15 years. Aaron Rodgers' resume speaks for itself.

In passing the baton to Love, the temptation could be to scale back the offense to protect him.

That would be the wrong approach.

First and foremost is time. The Packers have invested a lot of time into Love. While he hasn't played, he's also not a rookie.

In addition, he's in what in essence is a contract year. It's unlikely the Packers would allow Love to enter 2024 as a lame-duck quarterback. The decision as to whether he's the quarterback of the future likely will be made at the end of this season, at the latest.

Packers President and CEO Mark Murphy said they'd need "at least" half a season to determine what type of quarterback he'll be. For reference, the Packers extended Rodgers by the halfway point of his first season as a starter in 2008.

One mistake NFL teams make is giving an average player elite money.

The Giants’ Daniel Jones is the most recent example. Is Jones among the league's elite quarterbacks? Probably not, but he was going to be a free agent, and teams almost never travel into unknown waters at that position. He was given a four-year extension worth $160 million and including $105 million guaranteed.

Jordan Love (Photo by Katie Stratman/USA Today Sports Images)

For that reason, the Packers should want to feel good about Love's ability to be in the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks before opening the vault.

Last season with Rodgers, they threw the ball on first down 43 percent of the time, which was 28th in the NFL. For comparison's sake, the Philadelphia Eagles, known for their rushing attack, threw on first down 50 percent of the time. With the fifth-highest pass rate in the first half, they started games as a pass-first team to get the lead.

The Packers' drop in passing rate likely can be chalked up to losing Davante Adams and wanting to bring the young receivers along slowly. The offense remains young but is much more explosive at the receiver position. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are in much better spots than they were as rookies a year ago.

Regardless of the pass catchers, other teams know who the best players are on the Packers' offense.

Jones and Dillon are going to be key cogs in this offense. Until Love proves his mettle, however, opposing defenses are likely to dare him to beat them.

If they do, coach Matt LaFleur needs to accept that challenge as a play-caller.

The Packers' offensive line was assembled to protect Rodgers. It’s not built to run into the heavy fronts they could face early in 2023 as Love gets comfortable.

That isn't to say the team shouldn't run the ball, but the Packers made the decision to go with Love. They need to trust him.

“We’re excited about him,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said in February. “I think I’ve expressed to a lot of people that he needs to play. That’s the next step in his progression. He needs to play. Jordan’s done a great job working hard, so he’s doing everything we’re asking."

The key line in Gutekunst's quote? Love needs to play.

That means the team cannot try and shield him from making mistakes.

Last season, the Packers ranked 18th in the NFL in passing percentage, throwing 56 percent of the time. Even with Rodgers at quarterback and a team that trailed more than in previous seasons, they still ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass percentage.

One shining example was a game against Buffalo, where they trailed a majority of the game, but still ran the ball 30 times compared to 30 passes.

They lost by double digits.

The late Mike Leach once said, "50 percent runs and 50 percent passes is 50 percent stupid."

Balance for the sake of balance doesn't help an offense that should have a goal of being more efficient than they were a season ago.

More importantly, their goal should be to find out what they’ve got at quarterback.

Vince Lombardi's philosophy of running to daylight still has its place in the NFL, but it's the passing game that leads to points.

"I think a lot of people just haven’t seen me play enough and are not really familiar with my game. But I’m a baller. So that’s what they’ll see." Love told Albert Breer.

The Packers, to a man, have essentially all said they believe in Love.

With real games about to start, they need to let him prove why.