Here’s Packers’ Path to No. 1 Seed, Homefield Advantage

If the Packers win both games, they will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. But what if they split their final two games?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The path to the No. 1 seed has broken wide open for the Green Bay Packers.

With the Packers’ sputtering victory over the Carolina Panthers on Saturday and the New Orleans’ Saints loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, here are the playoff standings and final opponents with two games to go. The top seven get in the playoffs and the No. 1 seeds gets a first-round bye and homefield advantage.

1. Green Bay: 11-3 (vs. Tennessee, at Chicago)

2. New Orleans: 10-4 (vs. Minnesota, at Carolina)

3. Seattle: 10-4 (vs. L.A. Rams, at San Francisco)

4. Washington: 6-8 (vs. Carolina, at Philadelphia)

5. L.A Rams: 9-5 (at Seattle, vs. Arizona)

6. Tampa Bay: 9-5 (at Detroit, vs. Atlanta)

7. Arizona: 8-6 (vs. San Francisco, at L.A. Rams)

8. Chicago: 7-7 (at Jacksonville, vs. Green Bay)

9. Minnesota: 6-8 (at New Orleans, at Detroit)

If Green Bay goes 2-0 with wins at home against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday night and at the Chicago Bears the following Sunday, it will be 13-3 and the No. 1 seed.

If Green Bay wins one game and winds up tied only with New Orleans at 12-4, it would get the No. 1 seed based on its Week 3 victory at the Saints.

Where it gets tricky is a three-team tiebreaker between the Packers, Saints and Seattle Seahawks. In that case, the Packers’ victory over New Orleans would not matter because all three teams didn’t play each other. The next tiebreaker is conference record. In that case, Green Bay’s specific results the next two weeks are what matters.

If Green Bay loses to Tennessee but beats Chicago in Week 17, it would finish 12-4 and 10-2 in the NFC. New Orleans would be 12-4 and 10-2 and Seattle would be 12-4 and 9-3. The Seahawks would be eliminated on conference record. At that point, the tiebreaker reverts to the top and the Packers would beat the Saints based on the head-to-head matchup.

In other words, the Green Bay-Tennessee game is irrelevant so long as the Packers beat the Bears.

If Green Bay beats Tennessee but loses to Chicago, it would finish 12-4 and 9-3 in the NFC. New Orleans would be 12-4 and 10-2 and Seattle would be 12-4 and 9-3. In this case, the Saints would get the No. 1 based on the best conference record. Who would be No. 2? With no head-to-head matchup and a tie in NFC games, the next tiebreaker would be common games. Seattle would win that by going 5-0 vs. Minnesota, San Francisco, Atlanta and Philadelphia while Green Bay went 4-1.

As the No. 3 seed, the Packers’ potential first-round matchup would be a rematch against Tampa Bay but at Lambeau Field.