Packers Paying Price for Aggressive Approach

With a chance to win the Super Bowl, the Green Bay Packers ditched their usual conservative fiscal approach. Instead, their aggressive approach has driven them into a ditch.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Rational minds can disagree on whether or not the Green Bay Packers went “all in” on winning a Super Bowl the last couple years. What is not debatable is the Packers ditched their usually conservative fiscal approach and went to great lengths to keep the core of championship-caliber rosters together.

First and foremost, they signed Aaron Rodgers to a three-year, $150 million contract that’s now an albatross standing in the way of a presumptive trade to the New York Jets. Twelve months ago, though, they needed the cap space, and Rodgers’ signature created about $18.2 million of it. That money helped make possible the re-signings of De’Vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas and some quality veteran additions.

Moreover, they shifted tens of millions of dollars onto future salary caps through restructuring the contracts of David Bakhtiari, Kenny Clark and multiple other players. General manager Brian Gutekunst and his right-hand man, Russ Ball, essentially robbed Peter to pay Paul and hoped the team could win the Super Bowl before the long arm of the salary-cap law arrived with handcuffs and a calculator.

It didn’t work. Rather than finally reaching the Super Bowl, the Packers crashed to 8-9 and failed to even make the playoffs in 2022.

Beyond Rodgers, the fallout from all those decisions is evident on the 2023 salary cap. Green Bay’s cap includes $16.35 million of money dedicated to players no longer on the roster.

Safety Adrian Amos is the ultimate case-in-point. Through multiple restructures by the team, which included the insertion of void years to cut down on his annual cap numbers, Amos counts $7.95 million on this year’s salary cap.

Amos, of course, is a free agent who spent his Thursday being wined and dined by his hometown Baltimore Ravens. And yet, he has the seventh-highest cap charge on the team.

To be sure, Amos is the extreme example, but he provides the ultimate argument to the salary-cap-isn’t-real crowd. The salary cap is real, and Amos, defensive tackle Dean Lowry ($3.01 million), defensive tackle Jarran Reed ($1.49 million), receiver Randall Cobb ($1.39 million), tight end Marcedes Lewis ($1.05 million), kicker Mason Crosby ($1.05 million) and tight end Robert Tonyan ($500,000) provide more than $16 million worth of examples. That’s two or three good players the Packers can’t afford.

That’s not criticism, at least from this perspective. With the back-to-back MVP leading a team with back-to-back-to-back 13-win seasons, Gutekunst did what he could to maximize the championship window. The reward was great. So was the risk.

The credit card approach to funding the roster continued this offseason. To handle all those past restructures and get the Packers relatively comfortably under the 2023 salary cap required even more restructures that punted the financial pain to next year. Because of that approach:

- Bakhtiari’s cap charge in 2024 is set to explode to $40.58 million, the most expensive at the position by more than $12 million.

- Clark’s cap charge in 2024 will rise to $27.49 million, second only to future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald.

- Jaire Alexander’s cap charge in 2024 will increase to $24.36 million, fourth-most among corners.

- Running back Aaron Jones’ cap charge in 2024 will rise to $17.17 million, second-most among running backs. If he plays out his contract in 2024, he will have an Amos-style cap charge of $6.64 million in 2025.

The restructuring and back-loading of contracts means the Packers have nine contracts with cap charges of at least $11 million on the books for 2024. According to OverTheCap.com, the Packers have $13.55 million of space for 2024 but with just 32 players under contract. The offseason salary cap is based on a 51-man roster. With the addition of 19 minimum-wage players, Green Bay is slated to be $1.55 million over the cap.

It will all work out, of course. Rodgers’ contract, presumably, will be off the books. They could release Bakhtiari, too, among others. The dead money on the cap will be the equivalent of a mausoleum.

As is turns out, the salary cap is real and it’s not spectacular. The bill always comes due. You can always grab another credit card, which has been the New Orleans Saints’ approach in the years following Drew Brees’ retirement. Or, you can cut back on the Kobe beef and cognac and enjoy a regular burger and a glass of milk to get your finances in order.

The latter appears to be the Packers’ approach. The Packers went all-in – or something close to it – in hopes of pushing Rodgers over the finish line. The next 12 months’ worth of transactions will determine Jordan Love’s starting line.

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I saw the aurora last night. It's a beautiful sunny start to Friday. No amount of mocking of my third all-#Packers mock draft can ruin my day.

In this mock, I traded Rodgers to the Jets for their two-second rounders, giving GB four of the top 45 picks.https://t.co/HvMyYuZ3ul

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) March 24, 2023

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