Packers’ Performance Leaves Sportsbooks ‘Shocked’

Green Bay has gone from practically a Super Bowl afterthought to having the fourth-best odds to win the championship.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Coming on the heels of a 13-win season and a trip to the NFC Championship Game, there were surprisingly low expectations for the Green Bay Packers entering the season.

Those low expectations were shared by sportsbooks. At Westgate SuperBook, for instance, the Packers were 30/1 to win the Super Bowl (or +3,000). Instead, Green Bay is 3-0 headed into Monday night’s game against the Atlanta Falcons. Its championship odds have shortened to 8/1 (+800).

“I’m shocked that Green Bay is doing what they’re doing considering they basically sacrificed the draft,” said Ed Salmons, the vice president of risk management and oddsmaking at SuperBook. “They didn’t add a player that could help the team right away. They’re drafting for the future and not for this year. For the most part, the thinking was, ‘Well, they won 13 games last year and their point differential was more of a nine-win team.’ Their season wins, we started at nine and got bet down to 8.5, so the thinking was they were going to regress.”

Through three weeks, there hasn’t been a bit of regression. By leading the league in scoring, Green Bay is third in the NFL with a point differential of plus-12.3. Last year, it was ninth with a point-differential of plus-3.9 and actually was outgained on the season.

“Very surprised,” said Nick Bogdanovich, the director of trading at William Hill. “They were down in New Orleans, which was coming off a loss, and you figured they were going to get New Orleans’ best shot and they took care of business. They’re hitting on all cylinders. They’re drawing big money. We got barbecued when the Packers won outright [against New Orleans].”

The Packers started the season at 25/1 to win the Super Bowl at William Hill and are now 12/1. At both SuperBook and William Hill, Green Bay has the fourth-best championship odds. It started the season with the 11th-shortest odds at SuperBook.

“We’re still in good shape with them so we’ve got to room to play around with the odds there,” Bogdanovich said.

The Packers have soared along with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has nine touchdowns, no interceptions and a 121.1 passer rating. He’s gone from a fringe MVP candidate to No. 3 on William Hill’s board at +700. That’s behind only Seattle’s Russell Wilson (+225) and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (+350).

Green Bay is a seven-point favorite over the Falcons. It has a bye next week, followed by games at powerful Tampa Bay, at winless Houston and at home against winless Minnesota.

“I’m shocked that the Packers are 3-0 right now,” Salmons said. “You can look back at their schedule and pick it apart and say Minnesota’s not very good this year, which is true, and they played Detroit in Week 2 when Detroit had so many injuries. But going down to New Orleans, that was a very impressive showing, especially without (Davante) Adams. For whatever reason, I could also say New Orleans always starts slow with Sean Payton. That’s just been their history. But they’ve been very impressive.”