Examining Prospects of Packers Trading for Julio Jones

What would it take for the Packers to acquire Julio Jones from the Falcons? Here's what it might cost in terms of draft picks, though that's not the only issue.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Imagine Aaron Rodgers back with the Green Bay Packers and slinging passes to Davante Adams and Julio Jones.

(Also, since you’re using your imagination, pretend there’s either no salary cap or the Packers have ample cap space to acquire Jones.)

Jones—one of the most dangerous receivers in NFL history—is on the trade block as the Atlanta Falcons grapple with salary-cap woes. As laid out by The Athletic’s Jeff Schultz, the Falcons are about $500,000 under the salary cap but need between $7 million and $8 million just to sign their draft picks. Jones, with a cap charge of $23.05 million, is one of just a couple players on the roster who could serve as a salary-cap money tree.

Jones is a future Hall of Famer. He ranks No. 1 in NFL history with 95.5 receiving yards per game. He caught 11 passes for 259 yards and one touchdown at Green Bay in 2014 and nine passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game in 2016. But, at age 32, he’s no longer an indomitable force.

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Could the Packers make a hypothetical trade happen? It was an idea explored by Pro Football Talk, which went deep into its thesaurus to find the word “prestidigitation” to describe the obstacles to making it happen.

A high-ranking team executive said he’d give Falcons second- and fourth-round choices for Jones. The assumption, he said, is the Falcons would want a first-round pick.

“Giving up a one is too much,” he said via text. “Honestly, a two is too much but it’s the price, I’m sure.”

In 10 NFL seasons, Jones has been picked for seven Pro Bowls. That includes six straight from 2014 through 2019, when he led the NFL in receiving yards per game three times. In 2020, injuries limited him to nine games. He caught 51 passes for 771 yards (15.1 average) and three touchdowns. His 85.7 yards per game was strong but well off the ridiculous 104.6 yards per game he averaged from 2013 through 2018. In a game at Lambeau Field in Week 4 of last season, he caught all four targets for just 32 yards.

To be sure, landing Jones to pair with Adams might help persuade Rodgers of the team’s commitment to winning a Super Bowl with him after losing in NFC Championship Games the past two seasons. The Packers led the NFL with 509 points in 2020; an offense with Adams, Jones, running back Aaron Jones and tight end Robert Tonyan might be good enough to threaten the 2013 Denver Broncos’ league-record 606 points. He would make defenses pay for focusing too much on Adams.

The salary cap, however, delivers a harsh wake-up call. The Packers are only $2.7 million under the cap, according to the latest from the NFLPA.

Could they make it happen? With a restructure of Rodgers and extension of Adams—the Packers’ two big money trees since the start of the offseason—they could. But the danger is Jones has cap numbers of $19.263 million in 2022 and 2023, as well. Based on OverTheCap.com’s projection of a salary cap of $203 million in 2022, Green Bay is a staggering $33.7 million in the red.

The Packers are +900 to acquire Jones, the seventh-shortest odds, according to BetOnline. However, the team has not made receiver a huge priority. In the five drafts from 2016 through 2020, Green Bay was the only team to not select a receiver in the first three rounds. That streak was snapped when it grabbed slot receiver Amari Rodgers in the third round last month.