Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Rams on Sunday
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have lost four in a row and desperately need a victory to turn their season around. Just what the doctor ordered, the Los Angeles Rams – perhaps without quarterback Matthew Stafford – are Sunday’s opponent at Lambeau Field.
While Packers are three-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook, they’ve shown they are capable of losing to every team in the NFL. Here are this week’s three reasons to worry in a battle between the Packers (2-5) and Rams (3-5), two teams clinging to playoff aspirations.
1. The Obvious, Part 1: Aaron Donald
The term “GOAT” might be the most overused acronym in the history of mankind. Not everyone or everything can be the greatest of all-time, after all. However, the Rams’ Aaron Donald might be the GOAT among defensive linemen, just like Lambeau Field might be the GOAT among stadiums.
Not all GOATs get along, though.
The Rams have played four games in Lambeau Field since Donald was drafted in the first round in 2014. The Rams have lost them all.
“None,” Donald said this week when asked if he had any special memories of Lambeau.
Donald has been nothing short of dominant during a slam-dunk Hall of Fame career. He’s been a Pro Bowler following each of his nine seasons. He was named an All-Pro seven consecutive seasons, a streak snapped last year when an injury limited him to 11 games. Donald, Lawrence Taylor and J.J. Watt are the only three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year winners.
“He has his own skill-set and he’s his own different type of player,” Packers guard Jon Runyan said. “He’s not overwhelmingly big but he’s strong, compact, powerful. He’s fast and he’s smart. He knows the ins and outs of offensive line play, tendencies, and he’s able to play off that. He’s not only extremely gifted but he’s also smart. It makes him who he is today. He’s been doing it at a high level for a long time.”
Donald’s got 107.5 sacks in his career, including an NFL-high 20.5 in 2018. Since entering the league, he’s got 168 tackles for losses. No other player has even 130.
Double-teaming him will be the obvious game plan. Will it work? Over the previous five seasons, according to the Rams’ pregame notes package, Donald has 202 pass-rush wins while double-teamed. That’s 71 more than any other player.
“He definitely causes a lot of pause on a lot of things that you may want to try to do because he’s such a game-wrecker,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “You’ve got to account for him on every snap. He is a guy that can absolutely take over a game.”
Donald was inactive for the game at Lambeau last season. In games in Green Bay in 2015, the 2020 playoffs and the 2021 regular season, Donald had zero sacks, zero tackles for losses and one quarterback hit.
Rams star Aaron Donald stops AJ Dillon in 2021.
Photo by Jeff Hanisch/USA Today Sports Images
What’s the key?
“Making sure we’ve got a lot of hands, a lot of eyes on him at all times,” Runyan said. “We know 99’s been a game-wrecker his whole career. Just not giving him the chance. He’s going to get his every now and then because that’s just the player he is, but minimizing those chances and hedging our bets against him and making sure that he’s not getting his hands on the ball.”
For his part, Donald is eager to chase a quarterback other than Aaron Rodgers.
“They got a young quarterback there, so we’ve just got to try to do our job to make our plays,” he said. “But it feels pretty good not seeing him back there.”
2. The Obvious, Part 2: Rams Receivers
Stafford is questionable with a thumb injury that kept him off the practice field all week. One of the NFL’s tough guys, nothing can make the swelling decrease faster than a look at Green Bay’s secondary and the matchups that could await his superb receivers.
While cornerback Jaire Alexander is expected to play through a back injury and Keisean Nixon will man the slot as usual, there’s a huge void at the other cornerback position following this week’s trade of Rasul Douglas. Plus, both starting safeties could be out with Darnell Savage (calf) on injured reserve and Rudy Ford (calf) questionable after not practicing on Friday.
Two rookie seventh-round picks could start. At cornerback, Carrington Valentine figures to step in for Douglas. If Ford is out, Anthony Johnson – who’s played eight snaps all season – could be the next man up at safety.
With Alexander out at Denver a couple weeks ago, Valentine struggled against the Broncos’ top receiver, Courtland Sutton. Sutton is a quality player, to be sure, but he’s no Cooper Kupp.
In 2021, Kupp became the fourth player in the Super Bowl era to win the so-called Receiving Triple Crown by pacing the NFL in receptions (145), yards (1,947) and touchdowns (16). In 2022, he was on pace for 142 receptions before missing the second half of the season with a high-ankle sprain.
Cooper Kupp will play for the Rams but Rasul Douglas was traded to Buffalo.
Photo by Jeff Hanisch/USA Today Sports Images
This year, he missed the first four games with a hamstring injury. In four games back in the lineup, he’s caught 21 passes for 315 yards and one touchdown. That’s more receiving yards than any Packers player has in seven games.
Whether it’s Kupp or surprise star Puka Nacua, the Rams will test Valentine early and often because coach Sean McVay is one of the best in the business at getting his top players the ball.
“That’s what’s going to happen when you’re a rookie,” Valentine said. “It’s just something I’ve got to live with. Like I say, cut the tape on, learn from it and you keep going.”
Nacua is quite a story. A fifth-round pick out of BYU who was taken 18 picks after the Packers selected Dontayvion Wicks, Nacua’s 61 receptions are the most by a rookie in his first eight games in NFL history. The 20th receiver selected has 752 receiving yards. That ranks third among all players and is 310 more than Zay Flowers among rookies.
Nacua obliterated the NFL record for most catches by a rookie in his first two games by grabbing 25 passes. He’s one of only four players all-time with back-to-back games of 10-plus catches for 100-plus yards to start a career.
“Honestly, I didn’t know anything about the kid until probably three or four weeks ago when he started coming onto the scene, and just watching his explosive plays, watching his targets even before this week preparing for him,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “He’s very Cooper Kupp-ish just the way, for a young guy a very polished receiver, very detailed, kind of lulls you to sleep almost.”
3. Third Down
By the numbers, the Packers’ offense has the slight advantage on third down. Green Bay ranks 15th with a 40.4 percent conversion rate while Los Angeles’ defense ranks 17th at 39.8 percent.
However, the Rams have been superb for most of the season, with one horrendous game against Philadelphia skewing the numbers. The Rams held each of their first four opponents to 30 percent or less on third down. In six of their eight games, they’ve limited their opponents to no better than 37.5 percent.
Against Minnesota last week, the Packers converted just 5-of-14 (35.7 percent). Four consecutive three-and-out possessions to open the game, obviously, meant four consecutive third-down failures. Jordan Love’s third-down passer rating of 57.9 is third-worst in the league.
With Donald (4.5 sacks), Michael Hoecht (3.5 sacks) and rocket-fast rookie Byron Young (three sacks), the Rams have the horses to get after Love.
“It's great” not having to go against Rodgers, Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris told reporters with a laugh this week. “Nothing against Jordan Love, but we’re talking about a Hall of Famer when you talk about Aaron – and a very sarcastic Hall of Famer at that. It's nothing like when a guy comes to the sideline, tells you what play you ran and what he saw and then you're just like, ‘I hate you’ (laughter).
“A great competitor we’re going to go see Jordan Love. Obviously, Jordan Love is a young player on playing, obviously been in the league couple years and learning. Fired up to go see those guys. They're young, they're hungry, they're competitive just like us. They're hungry for a win the same way.”
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