Packers-Saints: Three Reasons for Optimism

The Green Bay Packers (1-1) will host the New Orleans Saints (2-0) on Sunday at Lambeau Field. Here are three reasons why the Packers will earn a big win.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Had the Green Bay Packers done anything at all in the fourth quarter last week, they’d be 2-0. The New Orleans Saints are 2-0. These teams, who could be jockeying for playoff position all year, will meet on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Saints.

1. Saints’ Backfield

Last week, we wondered how the Packers would move the ball against the Falcons without Aaron Jones and Christian Watson. This week, it’s a bit of role reversal. How will the Saints run the ball without Alvin Kamara (suspension) and Jamaal Williams (hamstring)?

With those two veterans, the Saints might have a top-three backfield. That would pose real problems for a Green Bay defense that was run over and picked apart like fresh road kill by the Falcons. Instead, the Saints will rely on Tony Jones, a self-described journeyman, and rookie Kendre Miller, who will be making his NFL debut.

“I just want to see that violence that I know that [Miller] has, that he runs with,” Saints quarterback Derek Carr told reporters this week. “I just can't wait to see him put that on full display. When you're a rookie running back people are coming to find you, so hopefully, he tries to go find them.”

Yes, Green Bay’s run defense was terrible last week, but that was a combination of the Falcons’ scheme and the superior ability of rookie Bijan Robinson. The Saints, who rank 24th with 3.38 yards per carry, won’t pose quite the same challenge in either regard on Sunday.

“When you put something on tape that another team can find a weakness, it’s always important to go throughout the week and make sure you fix that so it can’t be exploited,” Packers outside linebacker Rashan Gary said.

2. Packers’ Defensive Backs

Item No. 1 runs right into Item No. 2. What the Saints do do well is throw the ball. They acquired quarterback Derek Carr this offseason, a significant upgrade compared to Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton, the previous successors to Drew Brees, and their receiver corps of Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed, is excellent.

So long as the Packers really can stop the run, that will create a best-vs.-best matchup between the Saints’ receivers and the Packers’ cornerbacks.

Jaire Alexander, who popped up on the injury report with a back injury and is questionable, no doubt wants to bounce back after a rough performance at Atlanta. Rasul Douglas has been typically strong. Keisean Nixon is off to a good start in the slot.

Packers CBs Rasul Douglas and Jaire Alexander will be challenged by the Saints :: Dan Powers/USA Today Sports Images

Everybody knows Thomas. Before a run of injuries, he was on a record-setting pace that included back-to-back seasons of 125 and 149 receptions. Everybody knows Olave, who caught 72 passes for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games as a rookie. Nobody knows about Shaheed, an undrafted rookie last year whose first career touches last year went for touchdowns of 44 and 53 yards. He had the decisive touchdown in Week 1 against the Titans.

“He’s fast; fast guy, tall, skinnier guy. Just brings speed,” Nixon said. “They’re all really good receivers. We got really good corners, so it’s going to be a hell of a game.”

3. Home Cooking

The Packers have been part of the National Football League since 1921. On Sunday, for just the third time, their home opener will come after playing two games on the road.

The last time Green Bay opened with consecutive road games was 2016. Before that, you’ve got to go all the way back to 1924, when Curly Lambeau’s team lost its first two games before sweeping a five-game homestand behind four shutouts.

Green Bay might be known for the Frozen Tundra but it’s been home sweet home in September. The Packers have won 10 consecutive home openers, the longest streak in the NFL.

At home under coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 27-6, that .818 winning percentage the best in the NFL by a considerable margin.

“There’s no better place to play in the National Football League. I said that even before I was here,” LaFleur said. “I think this is the best venue in all of sports. I love playing here, love feeling the support from our fans and, hopefully, they show up and show out for us on Sunday, and we’ll feed off that energy.”

Jordan Love is off to a hot start but he hasn't faced a defense like he'll face on Sunday.

Here are three reasons to worry for the #Packers vs. the #Saints.https://t.co/pfKllCOFFw

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 23, 2023

The potential return of Jones and Watson, who are questionable after practicing as limited participation twice apiece this week, would provide a big lift.

In nine home games last year, Jones had 932 yards from scrimmage and scored nine touchdowns. In his final seven home games as a rookie last year, Watson scored six touchdowns.

Of course, the Saints aren’t going to concede anything just because the Packers will be at home. Since 2018, the Saints have allowed a league-low 18.3 points per game on the road. However, in road games played on grass since Brees’ retirement, they’re 5-8. One of those wins came last week at Carolina; another came last year at Philadelphia when the Eagles sat star quarterback Jalen Hurts.

“I think it means a lot but, then again, it doesn’t matter,” Nixon said of playing at home. “You could have a home game and get booed. It doesn’t matter, honestly. However you come out, you come out flat, you’re going to be flat whether you’re home or away. You’ve got come out striking.”

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Really interesting conversation with Quay Walker toward the end of #Packers locker room today on how he's getting in the right place mentally before games, between series and even between plays.https://t.co/WKp6TmB1Bb

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 23, 2023

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