Packers-Seahawks Keys to the Game

From Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers to Aaron Jones, to Seattle's stars big and small, these factors will determine which team will advance to the NFC Championship Game.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are one game away from playing in next week’s NFC Championship Game. How do they get to San Francisco? Here are five keys for tonight’s game against the Seattle Seahawks.

Big challenge vs. the big guys

Seattle’s offense is trying to find its way following the season-ending injury to running back Chris Carson. They’ll attack the Packers with powerhouse running back Marshawn Lynch and monster rookie receiver D.K. Metcalf.

The Seahawks have been at their best when they can get the running game going. Thus, coach Pete Carroll plans to get the ball to Lynch, even though he’s averaged 2.3 yards per carry in his two games back from retirement.

“Marshawn will play more,” Carroll said. “He’s going to play more this week. He’s ready to and he’s had enough time with us. He feels confident about what he’s doing and the plan. We can get him in and out of there and have those two guys really go at it.”

Video: The Smiths on Marshawn Lynch

From Green Bay’s perspective, it must keep Lynch in check. Russell Wilson is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, and he dominated with a 124.4 passer rating on play-action passes, according to Pro Football Focus. He threw 10 touchdowns vs. zero interceptions on play action, and his completion rate was 7.0 percent better than it was on standard dropbacks.

With the running game’s disappearance against Philadelphia, Seattle advanced because Metcalf caught seven passes for 160 yards and one touchdown. Four of those catches went for 24-plus yards. Presumably, the Packers will match Kevin King against Metcalf. King played well down the stretch but, of 87 corners who played at least half of the defensive snaps, he ranked 86th with 1.71 yards allowed per coverage snap, according to Pro Football Focus.

Wilson digs the long ball

Wilson is arguably the game’s best long-ball thrower, and Seattle takes advantage with its scheme and personnel. According to PFF, Wilson threw the ball 20-plus yards downfield on 16.5 percent of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league. The reward? On those deep passes, he’s second with 36 completions, 1,179 yards and 11 touchdowns, and fourth with a 119.2 passer rating.

Video: Mike Pettine on Seattle's extended plays

Receivers Tyler Lockett (because of his size) and Metcalf (because of his route-running limitations) might not be for everyone but they fit what the Seahawks like to do. According to PFF, Lockett was sixth in the league with 13 deep receptions and Metcalf was 14th with 10 deep receptions. Metcalf (three) and Lockett (one) combined for four against the Eagles. The other seven teams combined for five during wild-card weekend.

Packers cornerbacks King and Jaire Alexander played their best football down the stretch. They’re major reasons why only one team allowed fewer receptions to receivers than Green Bay this season. However, this will be their first playoff game. How will they handle the challenge of playing under the playoff lights against a Super Bowl champion quarterback, especially when one big play could be all the difference? The young corners must play like veterans and the pass rush must keep Wilson in the pocket to prevent the extended plays that tend to lead to those long passes.

“With a guy that probably throws the best deep ball in the league, you cannot make a mistake in coverage deep against the Seahawks because he’ll see it and they have the guys that can go get it,” defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said. “All those guys can run and, even under duress, he’ll throw it up knowing they can run under it. We’ll have to make sure that coverage-wise, when communication is required, that we over-communicate. I think we’ve done a pretty good job of that lately. But we also can’t play with our eyes in the backfield. We tell those guys on the back end, deep to short. We’re going to let the guys up front defend the run and when you have deep responsibility, make sure you play that first. This is as critical a week for us to maintain deep ball security than any other because of what they do.”

Seattle’s base defense

No team plays more dime personnel on defense than the Packers under Pettine. It’s the opposite in Seattle under coordinator Ken Norton. Against Philadelphia, the Seahawks used their base 4-3 defense on 52 or 69 defensive snaps. Because linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright are so good against the pass, Seattle can keep more of a run-centric personnel group on the field to get the best of both worlds.

“They’re doing a little bit different stuff in terms of just some of the non-normal matches,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “They’ll leave their base defense out there whether you’re in 11-personnel or 10-personnel. That’s pretty unique.”

That means Green Bay’s offensive line is going to have a big game against heavy boxes to get running back Aaron Jones going. Jones has been the team’s best offensive player all season. The Packers are 10-0 when Jones averages more than 3.75 yards per carry compared to 3-3 at 3.75 or less.

“He knows what to do with the ball,” Norton said. “He understands how to get open. He finds ways to get through the holes. He’s hard to tackle. He’s a guy that gains ground when he runs. He’s slashing through and he makes it hard for guys to get him down. Just watching his film, he’s a really special player.”

Jones and Graham in the passing game

Clearly, Davante Adams will be a featured part of Green Bay’s passing game. He’s been the team’s only consistent threat.

However, where Seattle’s pass defense has been vulnerable is against running backs and tight ends. Against running backs, Seattle allowed 817 receiving yards. That’s the fourth-highest total in the league. Against tight ends, Seattle allowed 97 receptions for 1,099 yards and six touchdowns. The receptions and yards were the second-most in the league.

Jones finished second on the team with 49 receptions. In games with 30-plus receiving yards, Green Bay finished 6-1. Graham had 39 catches for 447 yards and three touchdowns, his fewest receptions and yards since his rookie season of 2010. Green Bay went 7-1 when he had 20-plus receiving yards.

“I’m going to try to hit him. One hundred percent, I’m going to try to hit him a lot,” said Wagner, Graham’s former teammate. “If he tries to box me out – he thinks he’s good at basketball; he knows I’ll beat him. I think they kind of use him the same. He’s a big guy, so you try to get him up on matchups and things of that nature. He is a great receiving tight end, so they are going to find ways to get him the ball and get him in matchups that they feel are in their favor.”

Momentum swings

In the playoffs, there are certain to be ebbs and flows. Seattle is loaded with playoff experience, especially with Carroll vs. LaFleur. How will the young Packers and their young head coach handle those momentum swings? Comebacks the last two weeks against Minnesota and Detroit are a positive sign for the Packers. So is their 8-1 record in games decided by one score.

“You’ve got to be resilient,” LaFleur said. “And that’s what I love about our team is, you can’t blink. If something bad happens or you face a little adversity, you just have to keep plugging away and these playoff games, you watch all of them last week, they all come down to the end. Very few ever get too far out of hand. So you’ve got to keep plugging away, one play at a time.”

Seattle is 11-2 in one-score games and almost certainly won’t crumble at crunch time. Wilson led the league with five game-winning drives this season.

“I think that’s a testament to who we are as a team, as a culture, as players,” he said. “We may need some magic this week, we may not. We’ll see what happens.”

Both teams have veteran quarterbacks who should be ice-cold calm in big situations. That calmness, in turn, should filter through the rest of their teams.

“I think character is really important,” Rodgers said of the team’s late-game success. “And it’s not like the kind of character that maybe comes to mind first. I’m not talking about good guys or a good feeling. I’m talking about understanding how to win and in those moments, the character that comes through is a hyper focus, I think, and an understanding of what it takes in those moments to win, and that’s a learned trait. I don’t think it’s something you start the season out with. It’s a learned trait. You learn throughout the year. We’ve, thankfully, had a number of those games that have gone our way and we’ve learned how to get it done in those moments.”

Video: Rodgers says confidence key for OTs Bakhtiari, Bulaga

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