Packers vs. Bears: Three Reasons to Worry

The Green Bay Packers are 9-3. The Chicago Bears are 4-8. Plus, Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears. Still, there are reasons to believe this game will be tougher than expected.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 11.5-point favorites for Sunday night’s home game against the Chicago Bears, the largest spread on the Week 14 slate. That doesn’t mean a win, let alone a blowout win, is guaranteed. Here are three reasons to be concerned.

One: The Bears Aren’t Bad

The point spread and standings notwithstanding, Chicago isn’t terrible. Last week, Arizona won at Chicago 33-22, but the Bears had big advantages in yards (72) and time of possession (9:30), and the Bears limited the Kyler Murray-led Cardinals passing attack to just 120 yards.

“We know that we’re going to have a great NFC North opponent in the Chicago Bears, a team that’s going be very motivated,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said, the first part of that statement being coachspeak hyperbole. “It’s Sunday Night Football, in Lambeau, and we know we’ll get their best shot, and we have to make sure that we prepare the way that we’re capable of and bring our ‘A’ game on Sunday night.”

Chicago’s last four losses came against Arizona, Baltimore (16-13), Pittsburgh (29-27) and San Francisco (33-22 but the Bears led going into the fourth quarter). So, it’s not as if the Bears have been punching bags. This will be their Super Bowl.

“I just think a lot of the times, teams maybe don't respect us or give us credit,” rookie Bears quarterback Justin Fields said. “I mean, you can't blame them. We’ve pretty much messed up in a lot of games. So, I mean, that's fine. We're going to attack every game like it's our last game and we're going to play through it all.”

“I’ve owned you all my (bleeping) life! I own you! I still own you!”

If this were 35 years ago, Aaron Rodgers might have needed to put his head on a swivel for Sunday night's #Packers vs. #Bears rematch.https://t.co/fpfbnYywQZ

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 9, 2021

Two: Bearly Rushing the Passer

Chicago’s defense leads the NFL in sack percentage. Yes, outside linebacker Khalil Mack is on injured reserve, but that stat rings true even with Mack limited to seven games and defensive tackle Akiem Hicks set to miss a fourth consecutive game. Outside linebacker Robert Quinn is tied for fourth in the NFL with 12 sacks and has added three forced fumbles. He’ll battle Green Bay’s No. 3 left tackle, Yosh Nijman. Nijman has played well but it only takes one or two bad snaps for a player like Quinn to change a game.

En route to winning NFC Defensive Player of the Month for November, Quinn had 5.5 sacks and two forced fumbles in only three games.

What’s odd is Chicago’s pass rush is No. 3 in sacks but No. 32 in pressures, according to SportRadar. An all-or-nothing pass rush isn’t ideal but, again, it only takes a play or two to turn a game on its head. A few key sacks could turn the table against Rodgers, who has owned the Bears throughout his career – a fact the Bears have been reminded of nonstop this week.

“When you go up against guys that have played this long in this league and have had the success that he's had, they've pretty much seen everything,” Bears defensive coordinator Sean Desai said of Rodgers. “They've encountered everything. They've got answers in their arsenal for everything. He's a threat, obviously, with his arm, he's still a threat with his feet, and obviously with his mind. You've got to play the mental game with him.”

Even without Khalil Mack, the Bears are No. 1 in the NFL in sack percentage. The big matchup highlights this week's #Packers X-factors.https://t.co/TCC2ydzCF6

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 11, 2021

Three: Potential-Packed Fields

As a whole, Fields’ rookie season has been miserable. That’s no knock on Fields and his potential. It’s been a tough slog for most of the rookie quarterbacks this year. New England’s Mac Jones has thrown 16 touchdowns vs. eight interceptions. All the other rookies have 29 touchdowns vs. 38 interceptions.

Of 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Fields is 32nd in passer rating (69.0), 30th in completion percentage (58.1), 33rd in touchdown percentage (2.0), 32nd in interception percentage (4.0) and 24th in yards per attempt (6.87).

However, he’s shown enough of his tantalizing potential to make him a threat against Green Bay’s high-quality pass defense. Worth remembering: In his last three games, Fields has completed 53.3 percent of his passes 20-plus yards downfield. Only the Chargers’ Justin Herbert has been more accurate. And Fields likes to go deep. His average pass travels 10.53 yards; no other quarterback averages even 9.50 yards per attempt.

“He’s a very elusive player,” Packers linebacker Krys Barnes said. “He’s a dual threat that can use his legs very well. He’s a strong player that can run through tackles and make some highlight plays. Watching film and having a chance to play him in that first game, you could tell that he’s very decisive in where he wants to go. With guys like Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, whoever else that’s mobile, I think we have a good plan right now.”

In almost upsetting powerful Baltimore, Fields became the first quarterback in Bears history with at least 175 passing yards and 100 rushing yards. A week later, he threw for 291 yards against Pittsburgh and drove the Bears 75 yards for the go-ahead touchdown in the final moments.

“I like being the underdog,” he said this week. “It just gives me an extra chip on my shoulder. I like when people doubt me. That just gives me a little extra motivation, so I love it.”