Packers vs. Browns: Three Reasons to Worry About Blue Christmas

The Green Bay Packers are 7 1/2-point favorites for their Christmas game against the Cleveland Browns. Here are three reasons why the outcome might not be holly and jolly.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are an NFL-best 11-3 and fighting for homefield advantage in the NFC playoffs. The Aaron Rodgers-led offense – injuries be damned – is the hottest unit in the NFL. The Cleveland Browns are 7-7 and fighting for their playoff lives. Their offense has scored less than 20 points in eight games and averaged 13.6 points in its past five.

While the Packers are 7 1/2-point favorites, there are plenty of reasons to believe this could be, as Elvis Presley famously sang, “a blue, blue, blue, blue Christmas.” Here are three.

1. Chugging-Along Chubb

With Bart Starr, Brett Favre and Rodgers, the Packers have had three of the greatest quarterbacks in football history. It’s the same for the Browns at running back. In NFL history, only four backs with at least 600 carries have a career average of at least 5.20 yards per carry. One Is Pro Football Hall of Famer Marion Motley, with his record-setting 5.70-average. Another is the legendary Hall of Famer Jim Brown, with his fourth-ranked 5.22 average. Third on the all-time list is their current running back, Nick Chubb, who has a career mark of 5.26 yards per carry.

Chubb has been phenomenal again. He’s fourth in the NFL with 1,017 rushing yards. While former Wisconsin Badgers star Jonathan Taylor is in the thick of the MVP race for how he’s carried the Indianapolis Colts into the playoff race on the strength of his league-high 1,518 rushing yards, Chubb by some measures has been the better back.

First and foremost, according to Pro Football Focus, Chubb is averaging a league-high 4.07 yards after contact. Chubb has 770 yards after contact – more than Green Bay’s Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have overall. He’s forced 51 missed tackles, only three less than Taylor despite having 104 fewer carries.

“He’s a phenomenal back,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said of the 227-pounder with the 4.52 speed in the 40. “Got a ton of respect for him. He’s a do-it-all back. He can not only carry the ball, he can receive the ball. They do a great job with him on screens. He’s great in protection. He’s an every-down back. He’s really elite as far as when they just turn around and hand the ball off to him, he’s really good. He’s running behind a great offensive line – he’s got two Pro Bowl guards in front of him. It’s a team that knows how to run the ball and wants to run the ball. He’s one of the elite backs in our league, there’s no doubt about it.”

2. Garrett vs. Nijman

In 65 career games, Myles Garrett has 57.5 sacks. His 0.88 sacks per game ranks second in NFL history. This season, he’s third in sacks (15), third in quarterback hits (28), first in pass-rush win rate (26.1 percent, according to PFF) and fourth in pressures (68, according to PFF). He’s one of the great players in the NFL, regardless of position.

While he’s questionable with a groin injury, the expectation is he’ll play. It’s a must-win game and the Browns are short-handed due to COVID and injuries. Jadeveon Clowney, the other starting defensive end, was not activated from the COVID list on Friday so will not play. The No. 3 end, former first-round pick Takk McKinley, went on injured reserve this week.

“He’s one of the best,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “I would have to put him right there with Aaron Donald, and you can make an argument who’s more of a game wrecker. Both those guys are just unbelievably physically gifted and they’re relentless. There’s a play I was watching, and I saw him take on a chip from the tight end and beat that. Then the tackle, he beat him. Then the back was there, and he beat him and sacked the quarterback. He’s a guy you have to account for on every play because he can single-handedly take over a game and wreck a game.”

Yosh Nijman has been a savior as the No. 3 left tackle. He’s faced the players ranked first, second, fourth and fifth in sacks and lived to tell the tale. LaFleur will scheme his way around the matchup as much as possible, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers will deal the ball quickly and from different spots. Still, at some point, Nijman is going to have to block one of the most feared defenders in the game. If there’s a key third-and-8, can Nijman keep Garrett away from Rodgers?

Asked about Rodgers impersonating John Wick for Halloween, Garrett said this week, “I think he is one of the best pure passers I have ever seen. Definitely one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time in my eyes. That just makes me more excited for the challenge to go against someone like that. If he is John Wick, I guess I have to be ‘The Reaper.’”

3. Rodgers and Who?

Here’s the complicating matter with Garrett. It’s easy to say the Packers can neutralize Garrett by relying on quick passes. But, of course, the Browns know that, too, and can play accordingly.

Then there’s the personnel problem. Green Bay is short on reliable receiving threats. Tight end Robert Tonyan and receiver Randall Cobb are on injured reserve. Big-play receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling is on the COVID list.

Focusing on the receivers, Davante Adams, of course, is Davante Adams. But who else is left? Allen Lazard has been inconsistent. The other players on the roster are Equanimeous St. Brown, rookie Amari Rodgers and former practice squad player Juwann Winfree. Adams has caught 96 passes with a 71.1 percent catch rate; everyone else has 40 receptions (Lazard, 27; St. Brown, 6; Winfree, 4; Rodgers, 3) with a 61.5 percent catch rate. Without Tonyan, the tight ends have delivered back-to-back seven-catch games. They’ll need to repeat that success. And perhaps LaFleur will utilize running back Aaron Jones more as a receiver to get his best players on the field as much as possible.

While Baltimore’s secondary had been wiped out by injuries and COVID, Cleveland’s corners and safeties are strong so long as cornerback Denzel Ward plays at his usual form. The Browns have given up less than 6.0 yards per pass attempt in five of the last six games.

Perpetually optimistic offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett called it an “exciting challenge” to be short-handed against a defense that’s allowed 16 or fewer points in six of its last eight games.

“That’s how it is in the NFL right now,” he said as part of the accompanying video. “There’s a lot of games that we’re playing and it’s crunch time now and everybody’s beat up. Somebody’s going to have an opportunity, and you have to coach everybody like a starter. It’s just awesome to see right now. It’s awesome to see and it’s great opportunity and it’s going to get people experience. Because we need everybody on this team to be ready to rock and roll as we enter into the playoffs.”

Browns at Packers in 1965 NFL Championship Game

The Green Bay Packers beat the Cleveland Browns 23-12 for the NFL Championship, a game played at muddy Lambeau Field on Jan. 2, 1966. Paul Hornung's 13-yard touchdown run in the third quarter was the decisive score.