Packers vs. Giants in London: Three Reasons to Worry

With Aaron Rodgers and Saquon Barkley taking center stage, the Green Bay Packers will face the New York Giants on Sunday in London. Here are three trouble spots for the Packers.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – For Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the plan for the team’s first game in London is simple.

“We’ve had halves of certain games where we’ve really played well and the other half has usually been pretty bad. We’ve got to try to put together four quarters and put on a show for the fans in the stadium,” Rodgers said on Friday.

While both teams are 3-1, the Packers are 8.5-point favorites at SI Sportsbook for Sunday’s game against the New York Giants. Offensively, the Giants have scored more points than the Packers. Defensively, the Giants are better in the red zone. Overall, they’re better in turnovers.

So, yes, there are reasons to be concerned. Here are this week’s three reasons to be worried.

1. Duh, It’s Saquon Barkley

This is the ultimate no-brainer. Giants running back Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in rushing. Through four games, he is No. 1 with 463 rushing yards, No. 7 among running backs with a 5.51-yard average, No. 1 with eight runs of 15-plus yards and No. 5 with 4.07 yards after contract per carry, according to Pro Football Focus.

Cornerback Rasul Douglas said Barkley is as powerful as AJ Dillon but faster than Aaron Jones. He can take a play that’s blocked for 2 yards and gain 5, or a play that’s blocked for 5 yards and take it the distance for a 75-yard touchdown.

During portions of practice open to reporters on Wednesday and Thursday, the overwhelming focus was on run defense by getting off the ball and setting the edge.

“It’s not easy” to tackle him, outside linebacker Preston Smith said. “Just as advertised, he’s a pretty tough guy to take down, pretty skilled back. Saquon has bounced back from his injury. He’s in full form. Everybody knows he’s back to Saquon. He has a lot of ability to break a big run or make a big play for his team. We just know we’ve got to contain him and not let him get hot.”

The Packers know Barkley is going to get the ball. Then again, they knew the Patriots’ running backs were going to get the ball last week and it didn’t matter. New England ran for nearly 170 yards to almost spring the upset behind a third-string quarterback. The Giants are averaging 192.5 rushing yards per game.

“Phenomenal player. Phenomenal talent,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “He’s explosive. He’s big. They do a great job of throwing the ball to him, as well. They find ways to get him the ball, not just turning around and handing him the ball. He’s the best in our business right now, statistically. He’s just an all-around complete back. It’s got to be a collective group effort this week because you can’t tackle that guy with one person. It’s got to be population to the ball. Unbelievable player. Unbelievable talent.”

The Giants’ running prowess goes beyond Barkley. Quarterback Daniels Jones ranks fourth overall and trails only the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson among quarterbacks with a 6.23 average. It will be interesting to see how much he’s slowed, if at all, with an ankle injury.

“The emphasis is going to go more on him (Barkley), for sure,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “Daniel Jones, he can run too. I saw him run 80 yards on a zone read and make some plays, too. We’ve got to be on top of our game with both those guys because the way they draw stuff up, they can run the ball really well so we’ve got to be prepared.”

Two more things worth mentioning: First, the Packers have allowed 20 points on opening possessions with two touchdowns and two field goals. Not only has the defense started slowly but it hasn’t finished strong, either, at least from the perspective of Sunday’s opponent. Green Bay has allowed a league-worst 6.2 yards per carry during the fourth quarter.

“I think they’re No. 1 in the league in rushing, so I’d assume they’re going to try to shorten the game a little bit,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers said. “I’m a big fan of Saquon. Heart definitely went out to him last couple years dealing with some serious injuries. What you’re seeing now is what you saw from him during his rookie year, when he led the league in yards from a scrimmage. He’s a great kid, humble and a hell of a player.”

2. Situational Dominance

Offensively, Green Bay has been pretty good in the key situations of third down (42.6 percent conversions) and red zone (60.0 percent touchdowns). Defensively, the Giants have been a juggernaut. The Giants are second on third down (29.4 percent; behind only Green Bay) and second in the red zone (35.7 percent).

“They've really done a nice job of studying not only what we're doing as a defense but what the offense does. It's going to be a great challenge this week,” Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale told reporters this week.

Rodgers has an un-Rodgers-like 79.0 passer rating on third down. That’s worse than such luminaries as Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett and Justin Fields.

Here’s the interesting cat-and-mouse game. Martindale has blitzed 50.0 percent of the time on third down, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Opponents have blitzed Rodgers 20.0 percent of the time on third down, the second-lowest rate.

He’s been much better in the red zone. Of quarterbacks with at least 10 red-zone attempts, Rodgers’ 125.7 passer rating ranks second.

“He’s a pain in the butt,” Martindale said of Rodgers this week. “If you have respect for the game, which we all do, you really are excited about this challenge, going against him. It will be something that you talk about the rest of your life.”

3. The Great Unknown

There’s a reason why Packers coach Matt LaFleur, in the words of Aaron Rodgers, was “in a grumpy mood” this week.

Going to London is the great unknown. Playing at home is great. You get to sleep in your own bed and you have the fans in your favor. Playing on the road is fine, too. The coaches and players have done it countless times, and there’s something especially satisfying about silencing the opposing fans.

There will be none of that on Sunday. There’s the travel. There’s the distraction. There’s the truncated preparation.

“Guys have to understand that they’re professionals and they’ve got a job to do,” LaFleur said. “We all do and you’ve got to be disciplined in how you go about your business. I truly believe the team that handles the trip the best is going to put themselves in the best position to win the game. And discipline’s a big part of that. There’s a lot of things that I’m sure they want to do but, if they know they shouldn’t do them, are they going to do them? I trust our guys. I think they’ll make wise decisions and I expect us to play at a high level Sunday.”

The decreased prep time could be a factor against everything-but-the-kitchen-sink Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. LaFleur knows the challenge. Late last season, his Packers earned a 31-30 win. On the other hand, in Week 6 of the 2018 season, the Ravens won 21-0 at Tennessee. LaFleur, serving as offensive coordinator, watched his Titans gain 106 yards.

“It was probably one of the most humbling moments of my career in terms of we got it taken to us,” LaFleur said. “He does just a great job of keeping you off-balance. You really aren’t quite sure what you’re going to get; it’s so game-plan driven. I like the plan we have. Now, we’ve got to go out there and execute and be ready to adjust.”

History says the best team usually wins. The favorite in London is 21-8-1 straight-up.

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Catches by receivers drafted in 2011 or earlier.#Packers Randall Cobb, 10.
AJ Green, 5
Julio Jones, 4.
Everybody else, 0.https://t.co/MUazxLXFI5

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 8, 2022

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