Packers vs. Patriots: Three Reasons to Worry

Just about everything is pointing in the Green Bay Packers’ direction for Sunday’s Week 4 game against the New England Patriots. Can Bill Belichick change that equation?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 9 1/2-point favorites over the New England Patriots for Sunday’s game at Lambeau Field. Almost everything is pointing in Green Bay’s favor. Depending on the availability of Jaire Alexander, the Packers could be at full strength. The Patriots won’t have starting quarterback Mac Jones or receiver Jakobi Meyers. On top of it all, the Packers are at home, where they’ve won 14 consecutive regular-season games.

Still, the Packers are a flawed team, especially on offense, and the Patriots have the ace up their sleeve with Bill Belichick. With that, here are this week’s three reasons to worry.

1. Matt LaFleur vs. Bill Belichick

On Monday, LaFleur – as he tends to do for anything and everything that goes wrong – took the blame for the offensive funk at Tampa Bay.

“When you’re not moving the ball, you’re like, well, they’re outcoaching us because we can’t get anything going,” LaFleur said.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has done that to a lot of coaching staffs over the years. With six Super Bowl wins in addition to his 291 regular-season victories, Belichick and Packers icon Vince Lombardi are the gold standards among NFL coaches.

“He’s the best of the best, regardless of sport,” LaFleur said on Wednesday.

If LaFleur was disappointed in the impact his adjustments made vs. the Buccaneers, he might be forced to adjust again and again by Belichick.

“You prepare for a lot of things, but everything could change in the game or before the game or at halftime or the third quarter or the fourth quarter,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers said. “They have a lot of scheme. A lot of respect for Coach Belichick. Best coach in the history of the game, I think.”

Belichick is one of the great defensive minds of all-time. He’s renowned for taking away what the offense likes to do. For LaFleur, that’s getting the ball into the hands of running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. The Buccaneers dominated that matchup last week, with Jones and Dillon combining for 29 touches for a feeble 85 total yards, and the Packers just couldn’t find an answer.

“You know they’re going to present some things that you haven’t seen on film,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “They do a good job trying to take away what you do best, so you have to have some plans and adjustments up your sleeve in case they go in multiple different directions. You’ve got to have some answers for anything. They test your rules and they test you up front, and they’re going to try to win their one on one matchups on the back end, so you’ve just got to be ready to go win.”

2. The Long Road

The Packers’ failure to string play after play after play together against the Vikings in Week 1 and the Buccaneers in Week 3 is a big reason why they entered this week ranked a feeble 27th with 16.0 points per game. Without a singular talent at receiver, such as Davante Adams, it’s just harder to put together those 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drives.

Starting with the Jones fumble late in the first half, the Packers had 10 third-down plays and converted just one. Green Bay gained a not-so-grand total of 3 yards on those plays. Rodgers was 4-of-8 passing for 12 yards. On eight of those plays, the Packers needed 5 or fewer yards. Those should be relatively easy conversions.

While the Patriots rank a woeful 27th in third-down defense, they aren’t going to be a pushover. According to SportRadar, they rank ninth in big plays allowed, with a big play defined as a run of 10-plus yards or a pass of 20-plus yards. Last week, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson had five big-play runs.

Obviously, that’s not Rodgers’ game. If you were to eliminate Jackson’s runs and scrambles, the Patriots’ big-play count would fall from 16 to 11. Only Buffalo has allowed fewer big plays. So, the Patriots are probably going to force the Packers to methodically drive the ball down the field. Are they capable?

Assuming the Patriots can limit Jones and Dillon, the question is whether Rodgers and Co. will have time to make something happen on third down. On the bright side, even with last week’s second-half struggles, the Packers are ninth on third down. On the other hand, the Packers’ offense ranks 22nd in sack percentage allowed while the Patriots’ defense ranks third in sack percentage. The big individual matchups will feature Green Bay’s offensive tackles, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins.

3. Parker vs. Packers Cornerbacks

With Brian Hoyer replacing the strong-armed Jones, the Patriots’ long-ball passing game might not be as big of a concern. The Patriots have two players who can track the bomb as well as anyone in the NFL with DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor.

After a quiet start to the season, Parker was practically unguardable last week. He had five catches of 20-plus yards. He enters Sunday ranked second in the NFL with four receptions on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus. Agholor has only one deep catch this year but is averaging 16.3 yards per reception. In 2020 with Las Vegas, he had 11 catches on deep passes; only Tyreek Hill had more than Agholor’s six touchdowns.

“At this point, you don't know how many chances like this you get anymore,” the 36-year-old Hoyer told reporters this week. “So, obviously, it's a part of the job. You're always ready to play. So, for me, it's an opportunity to go out there and have fun and go out and execute, really. Have fun. I really love my teammates, what they do, how hard they work. So, an opportunity to go out there and play with those guys.”

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