Packers vs. Vikings: Three Reasons for Optimism

The Green Bay Packers (7-8) are hosting the Minnesota Vikings (12-3) in a must-win game on Sunday. Here are three reasons why the Packers will win.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Dec 30, 2022 10:50 PM EST

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have a chance to be in control of their playoff destiny by the time they walk off Lambeau Field on Sunday evening.

Among the early games, it’s the Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders. The Commanders, who lead the Packers by a half-game in the race for the final NFC playoff spot, have gone back to Carson Wentz at quarterback. With a trip to the playoffs on the line last season while with Indianapolis, Wentz threw for 148 yards in a loss to the Raiders and 185 yards in a loss to the Jaguars.

If Cleveland can pull off the upset, Green Bay would be a victory over the rival Minnesota Vikings from taking over the last wild-card spot.

It won’t be easy. The Vikings are 12-3. After routing the Packers in Week 1, their last 11 wins have all been by one score. They are mentally tough and loaded on offense – a dangerous combination.

Here’s why the Packers will win and create some Week 18 drama.

1. Edge Protection

Left tackle David Bakhtiari, out the past three games following an appendectomy, will be back in the starting lineup. Right tackle Yosh Nijman, who missed most of last week’s victory at Miami with a shoulder injury, will be back in the starting lineup, as well.

Their presence can’t be overstated. The Vikings’ pass rush is led by the dynamic duo of Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter. Hunter has 10.5 sacks and Smith has 10. They are one of only two tandems with double-digits sacks. Among edge defenders, Smith is third in pressures and Hunter is eighth, according to Pro Football Focus.

“Big guy, knows football,” Bakhtiari said of going against Smith, who had big seasons in Green Bay in 2019 and 2020. “For how big he is, he can be extremely slippery. Powerful. You just have to account for him. He likes to jump around everywhere. It’s going to be fun. I’m sure he’s going to be fired up, he’s going to have his choice words. I’m excited to play football.”

If Bakhtiari and Nijman can win those matchups – late-season Lambeau Field should work to their advantage – the Packers should be able to give Aaron Rodgers time. The Vikings, despite the power of Hunter and Smith, are only 23rd in sack percentage. And when quarterbacks have had time, they’ve sliced and diced a defense that ranks 31st in passing yards per attempt.

2. Capt. Kirk

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Surrounded by Justin Jefferson and a star-studded supporting cast, he could hardly be hotter. His last three games: 425 yards and two touchdowns at Detroit, 460 yards and four touchdowns vs. Indianapolis and 299 yards and three touchdowns vs. the Giants.

However, he can be mistake prone. In six road games, he’s thrown seven interceptions. Of the 34 quarterbacks to throw at least 100 passes away from home, Cousins is a mediocre 21st with an 84.3 passer rating.

Green Bay’s secondary has been playing better with six interceptions the last three games. Of course, that comes with the asterisk of playing Chicago’s Justin Fields and his ho-hum receiver corps, the Rams’ Baker Mayfield and his undermanned receiver corps and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa, who threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter while concussed.

Still, the pass defense has generally played well since getting filleted by Cousins in Week 1. It ranks eighth in opponent passer rating for the season and third at home.

“I think we’re being more aggressive,” cornerback Rasul Douglas said. “We’re communicating more. We’re playing the way we’re supposed to play.”

3. Yes, Special Teams

The Packers and Vikings feature two of the best kick returners in the NFL.

For Green Bay, it’s Keisean Nixon, who ranks No. 1 in the league in average (27.5), 30-yard returns (nine) and 50-yard returns (four). He did not practice this week due to a groin injury but the feeling is he’ll give it a go. He’s got the speed to break contain and the power to run through arm tackles. He’s changed field position and the season. If he’s out there, he’ll be attacking one of the worst kick-coverage units in the league.

For Minnesota, it’s Kene Nwangwu, who ranks No. 2 with a 26.0-yard average. He’s got one touchdown this season and three in two seasons. With 4.32 speed in the 40, he’s one of the fastest players in the NFL. Mason Crosby is last in the NFL in kickoff distance, and the Jan. 1 chill is going to knock his kicks down even sooner.

“He’s got great size and he’s got great speed and, obviously, he’s put on tape he has the ability to finish,” special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia said. “It will be a good challenge in this weather. He’s certainly going to get some returns against us.”

However, Green Bay’s kick coverage has been sensational. Against Miami, the Dolphins started beyond the 20 just twice in six opportunities. Veterans Rudy Ford and Dallin Leavitt and youngsters Tariq Carpenter and Innis Gaines were dominant.

“I thought the kickoff coverage a week ago was, it was a clinic reel,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “It’s going to be a great challenge for us, but I’m excited to see how we do.”