Packers vs. Vikings: Three Reasons for Optimism

The Green Bay Packers are 2-4 and have lost three in a row. The Minnesota Vikings have rallied to 3-4 after a 0-3 start. Nonetheless, here are three reasons why the Packers will win.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Oct 28, 2023 4:21 PM EDT

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – This season was supposed to be about progress for the Green Bay Packers. Instead, after opening with a 2-1, the only progress has been backward. Green Bay is saddled with a three-game losing streak into Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau 1Field.

The Vikings, on the other hand, started 0-3. However, even with Justin Jefferson on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, they’ve won three of their last four games. They are a 1.5-point favorite against Green Bay at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Can the Packers pull off the home upset? Yes. Here are three reasons for optimism.

1. Making Them One-Dimensional

The Packers haven’t run the ball all season. Neither have the Vikings. Minnesota enters the game ranked 22nd with 3.9 yards per carry and 30th with 74.9 rushing yards per game. The Vikings don’t run the ball consistently. As in they don’t run the ball often and they don’t run it well.

For the season, the Vikings run the ball 31.2 percent of the time. That’s the lowest rate in the league. The last three games, they are averaging a horrendous 3.1 yards per attempt.

The Vikings dumped Dalvin Cook and elevated Alexander Mattison into the starting lineup. He’s got a team-high 359 rushing yards with a 4.0 average. Former Rams runner Cam Akers has 94 yards in four games. They haven’t scored a rushing touchdown all season.

Green Bay’s run defense, which is about as consistent as Minnesota’s run offense, needs to come up big. In the 17-13 loss at Las Vegas, the Packers allowed just 3.3 yards per carry. In the 19-17 loss at Denver, the Packers gave up 5.8 yards per carry.

Don’t sleep on the return of linebacker De’Vondre Campbell. When he came back from last year’s knee injury, the Packers won four of their last five. This year, they’re 0-3 without him.

If the Packers can hold the not-so-dynamic duo of Mattison and Akers in check, they’ll have a chance to force a watered-down Vikings attack into third-and-long situations.

2. No Jefferson, No Problem? No So Fast

The loss of the indomitable Jefferson, who might be the best receiver in the NFL, was supposed to be a crushing blow for the Vikings. Instead, with Jefferson on injured reserve, the Vikings are 2-0. Quarterback Kirk Cousins on Monday night shredded the powerhouse 49ers for 378 yards and two touchdowns on 77.8 percent accuracy.

Downplaying Jefferson’s importance based on that game is downright disrespectful. Yes, sure-handed and field-stretching rookie receiver Jordan Addison has been an impact player. Yes, veteran tight end T.J. Hockenson has been a high-volume pass-catcher.

However, Addison is a rookie and he hasn’t experienced a chilly day on the sometimes-slick Lambeau Field playing surface. Recall how Jefferson struggled with his footing when Green Bay routed the Vikings last season. Meanwhile, Hockenson has averaged just 8.3 yards per catch and hasn’t scored since Week 2. So, he’s a reliable, go-to player but not much of a field-tilter. The Packers have given up the third-fewest receptions to tight ends this season.

The potential return of cornerback Jaire Alexander could swing this game in Green Bay’s favor, assuming it can get the Vikings into challenging third downs. Alexander, Rasul Douglas and Keisean Nixon vs. Addison, K.J. Osborn and Jalen Nailor would be an advantage for the Packers.

“Play physical. Play what the coaches tell us to do. And our play style,” Nixon said of what worked against Cousins last year. “At the end of the day, everything goes back to our play style. We can’t control nothing else or what anybody else do but what we do on defense. And just execute. That’s it. Play tough and execute.”

3. Green Bay’s Big Offensive Advantage

It’s hard to say the Packers have an advantage in any sense on offense. The Jordan Love-led offense, in a word, has been terrible. During their three-game losing streak, they rank 25th with 16.7 points per game.

However, Minnesota’s defense ranks 25th on third down (44.7 percent conversions) and 28th on fourth down (66.7 percent), and 27th in the red zone (64.7 percent touchdowns). Meanwhile, Green Bay’s offense ranks a surprising 11th on third down (41.3 percent) and has been superb in the red zone (eighth; 62.3 percent touchdowns) and in goal-to-go situations (sixth; 90.0 percent touchdowns).

Entering Sunday, the Packers are 17th in scoring and the Vikings are 18th. The over/under is only 41.5 points. In other words, a low-scoring game is the expectation and points will be at a premium. That’s where the red zone, if those trends continue, could be the difference.

With eight touchdown passes (and two touchdown runs) vs. one interception, Love has been effective (but inaccurate at 51.5 percent) in the red zone.

“I will say that Jordan has made some big-time throws. He's made some plays,” Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said. “They're pushing the ball down the field a lot, getting those explosive plays. He's got athletic ability to get out of the pocket and change the game with his legs, and he clearly has demonstrated his high capacity to throw the football. We’ve got to play really, really well defensively to limit Jordan and all the skill players that they can attack you with.”