Perfect Packers Offseason Preview: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon and Running Backs

Aaron Jones carried the Packers to the playoffs but isn't getting any younger and AJ Dillon is headed to free agency. Here is a look at the running backs.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Believe it or not, the Green Bay Packers have had one NFL rushing champion dating to at least 1932. That was Hall of Famer Jim Taylor during his MVP season of 1962. Aaron Jones wasn’t close to leading the NFL in rushing in 2023, but he cemented his legend with a brilliant stretch run.

Jones led the NFL in rushing over the final three weeks of the regular season. Then, he posted back-to-back playoff games of 100-plus rushing yards with at least a 5.6-yard average, the second-longest streak in postseason history. He demolished the Cowboys with three rushing touchdowns, then broke the 49ers’ streak of 50 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher.

Here is a look at the Packers’ backfield entering the offseason.

The Depth Chart

Aaron Jones basically needed only three games to lead the Packers in rushing. Jones missed six of the first 13 games due to injury. Because of those hamstring and knee injuries, Jones reached double-digits carries only twice during that span.

And then Jones caught fire, and the rest of the offense came along for the ride. He rushed for 127 yards with a 6.1 average vs. Carolina, 120 yards with a 6.0 average against Minnesota and 111 yards with a 5.1 average against Chicago to carry the Packers into the playoffs. Then he added 118 yards with a 5.6 average against Dallas and 108 yards with a 6.0 average against San Francisco.

“Success rate” is identical to Green Bay’s win/loss grading. A first-and-10 run that gains at least 4 yards is a win/success. A second-down run that gains 60 percent of the remaining yards is a win/success. And a third- or fourth-down run that moves the chains is a win/success. Jones ranked No. 1 in the NFL among running backs with a 62.0 percent success rate.

General manager Brian Gutekunst made it clear he wants the 29-year-old Jones back, even as he grows older and more expensive.

AJ Dillon was supposed to be the “thunder” to Jones’ “lightning.” But, when the Packers needed Dillon to come to the rescue through Jones’ prolonged absences, the big man failed to come up big.

Of 49 running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, Dillon was 45th with a 3.44-yard average, 37th with 2.69 yards after contact (Pro Football Focus) and 47th with a missed-tackle rate of 6.7 percent (Sports Info Solutions). His yards per carry has gone from 4.3 in 2021 to 4.1 in 2022 an 3.4 in 2023; his success rate has gone from 61.0 percent in 2021 to 56.5 percent in 2022 and 50.0 percent in 2023.

Dillon is headed to free agency. He’ll turn 26 in May. Is there any future in Green Bay?

Patrick Taylor and Emanuel Wilson, who had their moments, and Ellis Merriweather, who spent the second half of the season on the practice squad, round out the group. In the regular season, Taylor had 32 carries to Wilson’s 14. In the playoffs, Wilson had 12 carries to Taylor’s three.

Free Agency

Dillon will be an unrestricted free agent. While his production has declined – he had as many games with less than 20 rushing yards (four) as 60-plus rushing yards in 2023 – he was a second-round pick in 2020 and has only 700 career touches in regular-season and playoff action (but 866 at Boston College). So, there should be a market for him – even if it’s a one-year deal with considerable incentives.

If you’re Gutekunst and you have five picks in the first three rounds of this year’s draft, is there any reason to re-sign Dillon (or sign Derrick Henry)? Or do you go through the draft and then reassess the depth chart?

Taylor will be a restricted free agent. The Packers almost certainly aren’t going to give him a restricted free agent tender, so he will become an unrestricted free agent, as well. He could return to Green Bay, but he’d start behind Wilson on the depth chart.

Big Question

Jones was exceptional during the final five games. His five-game streak of 100-plus rushing yards was the longest in franchise history. Moreover, it was the longest by any running back in the NFL in 2023, and no running back had a longer streak since Dallas’ DeMarco Murray in 2014.

Jones turned 29 in December. Was his injury-plagued season just one of those years that happens to any player at a demanding position? Or was it a sign that Father Time was about to tackle Jones once and for all? Given Jones’ importance in the playoff run, those are critical questions for Gutekunst as he builds his 2024 roster.

A Perfect Offseason

In 2020, the Packers had Jones and Jamaal Williams as their proven one-two punch. With those two entering their final season under contract, they drafted Dillon in the second round. Jones and Williams carried the load in 2020 before Dillon moved into the No. 2 role behind Jones for the past three seasons.

So, keeping Jones with a restructured deal, retaining Dillon with a one-year contract and then drafting a running back with one of those four Day 2 draft picks makes a lot of sense. Remember Dillon’s success rate from earlier? While it was down, it still ranked 12th among running backs. His production in the receiving game was up, and the one sack that PFF charged him with was the first of his career.

Regardless, drafting a running back feels like a necessity. Does that back have to be an explosive runner like Jones? A stylistic counterpuncher like Dillon? Or something in between? Whatever. So long as he can catch – most of the top backs in this draft have proven to be, at least, quality checkdown options – and has the heart for pass protection, he’ll have what it takes to take over as the No. 1 back in 2025.

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