PFF Projects Packers Will Take Big Step Back

Pro Football Focus used some of its data to run 10,000 season simulations. Here are the results.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – After the Green Bay Packers went 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship Game last season, the William Hill sportsbook last week placed the over/under on Green Bay’s 2020 win total at just nine.

Recently, Pro Football Focus used some of its data to run 10,000 season simulations. Green Bay’s average win total? Just 8.7.

From one perspective, Green Bay’s success from last season could be hard to duplicate. It went an astounding 8-1 in one-score games (eight points or less). That’s hard to duplicate. Moreover, the Packers were incredibly healthy last season. Maybe coach Matt LaFleur, with his preference toward lighter practices, has the magic touch. Or, maybe the Packers were just fortunate. And it’s hard to argue the Packers’ personnel is better today than when they were crushed by the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.

On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers in Year 2 should be more comfortable directing LaFleur’s scheme, and LaFleur should be more in-tune with the desires of his quarterback. With Rodgers, running back Aaron Jones, receiver Davante Adams, outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith and others, Green Bay has more top-tier players than most teams.

“We’re excited about the guys we got and we felt we were disciplined enough to not reach for positions of need,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said after the draft. “I like our football team right now. It doesn’t mean it won’t change but I like where we’re at.”

Here are PFF’s projected win totals for each NFL North team, along with their current market odds (via BetOnline):

Green Bay Packers: 8.7 (9, -125/-105)

Minnesota Vikings: 8.4 (9, -110/-120)

Chicago Bears: 7.4 (8.5, +120/-150)

Detroit Lions: 7.4 (6.5, -120/-110)

For all the projections, CLICK HERE.