Prediction: What Packers Will Do in First Round of NFL Draft

The 2022 NFL Draft is filled with uncertainty at the top, so naturally that uncertainty has cascaded into the bottom of the first round, where the Green Bay Packers are scheduled to pick 22nd and 28th.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – This is my 14th NFL Draft covering the Green Bay Packers. A lot of times, I go into the Thursday of the first round feeling pretty good about what they’re going to do. A lot of times, I’m wildly incorrect, but that’s the fun, right?

I don’t have a clue what the Packers are going to do tonight, to be honest. The Top 10 of the draft is filled with uncertainty, and that’s trickled down to the bottom one-third of the draft, which is filled with uncertainty under the best of circumstances.

Here’s what I do know. The Packers have a need at receiver. And not your run-of-the-mill need. It’s an enormous need. As much as that need has been discussed the last couple months, it’s almost impossible to overstate it.

I get it, having a great quarterback is the rising tide that lifts all boats. Aaron Rodgers would throw for 4,000 yards with a 100 passer rating with Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and the guy from the “Angels Forever, Windows of Light” commercial as the receivers. And I get it, Matt LaFleur is a great coach, play-caller and schemer. They’ll make it work. Their success in games without Adams is the proof.

But you know who else is a great coach with a great scheme? Sean McVay. And you know who else is a great quarterback? Matthew Stafford. That didn’t stop the Los Angeles Rams from signing Allen Robinson to join Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the immortal Tom Brady. They signed Russell Gage to join Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

The Packers simply don’t have the firepower to match up with the NFL’s other top teams. They need to get an instant-impact receiver. They need someone capable of winning against a good corner on third-and-8 in the fourth quarter in December and January.

Scouts have nothing but free time on the Thursday before the draft. So, I talked to a few, including this high-ranking team executive who will help call the shots for his team this weekend.

The consensus is Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson, USC’s Drake London, Alabama’s Jameson Williams and Chris Olave will be gone before Green Bay is up at No. 22. Wilson, London and Olave are the instant-impact receivers in this draft.

The other receivers are good but flawed.

Treylon Burks is a YAC machine but isn’t ready to run a full offense. Maybe the Packers can draft him and he’d become that player for the stretch run. Maybe.

Penn State’s Jahan Dotson will be at his best in the slot. The Packers already have Cobb and Amari Rodgers for slot duty. So, that seems like too much redundancy.

North Dakota State’s Christian Watson ran a limited route tree, faced a bunch of corners who will never see the NFL light of day and dropped too many passes. But he is big and really fast. That sells on Thursdays, but will it win on Sundays as a rookie?

“I love him in the 40s if your team has an established No. 1,” one scout said.

Georgia’s George Pickens has the full package and should be well beyond last year’s torn ACL, but he’s never really been a dominant player and there are some relatively minor off-the-field concerns.

“I do think that where guys come from and what they’ve been exposed to has a significant impact on how they come into the league and how quickly they get up to speed,” Gutekunst said last week. That line might hint that he’s not learning toward Burks or Watson, though perhaps I am guilty of reading too far between the lines.

The thought here, and it’s echoing what that aforementioned executive said, is the Packers will move up and select the polished Olave. With two picks in the second round, one in the third and two more in the fourth, general manager Brian Gutekunst has enough draft capital on his hands that he can sacrifice one in a trade. And, with first-round trades in three of his four drafts, he has a history of wheeling and dealing. The Packers are in win-now mode. They don’t have a year to get a rookie receiver rolling. They need him to be rolling ASAP.

That leaves the Packers back on the clock at No. 28 with a chance to address other top needs. In a deep draft, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gutekunst trade out of the round to pick up an additional selection.

But, if they stick at No. 28 …

Offensive tackle: The top tackles will be gone. Tulsa’s Tyler Smith was mentioned by one scout but he committed 12 holding penalties in 2021 alone. That’s five more than any other draft-worthy prospect. But, in a relatively lean group of tackles with zone-scheme athleticism, Smith checks a lot of boxes.

Defensive line: Georgia’s Devonte Wyatt and Oklahoma’s Perrion Winfrey are the playmakers of the class.

Outside linebacker: Minnesota edge defender Boye Mafe would be a traits-based pick, not unlike Rashan Gary in 2019. With Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith, Gary was eased into the action. With Preston Smith and Gary, the Packers could do the same with Mafe, a 260-pounder with 4.53 speed. Penn State’s Arnold Ebiketie is a bit smaller than what the Packers have preferred in recent years, not that that would rule him out, and he’s not a great run defender. Michigan’s David Ojabo will play little, if at all, as a rookie due to a torn Achilles. Purdue’s George Karlaftis isn’t expected to be available at 28.

Inside linebacker: A lot of the final mock drafts of the season have gone with Utah’s Devin Lloyd and Georgia’s Quay Walker. Lloyd would be hard to pass up; to me, he’s the best linebacker prospect by a mile. Walker is sheer projection with great size, great speed and minimal playmaking.

Safety: The Packers have no depth at safety, which is why Darnell Savage wasn’t even a consideration in the slot. Subject to change, but Savage and Adrian Amos could be free agents at season’s end. Michigan’s Daxton Hill, who played a lot in the slot, and Georgia’s Louis Cine look like future stars. Hill brings the coverage element and Cine is the more physical of the two. Neither play has a shortage of speed.

The guess here is the Packers will emerge on Thursday night with Olave and Mafe as the first-round picks.

NFL Executive Has Receiver Plan for Packers

Ohio State WR Chris Olave

Which receiver would the executive trade up to select in the first round?

“I think Olave would be the next one who you’d probably have to go get,” he said. “Personally, I’m comfortable enough where I would say Jameson (Williams, who is coming off a torn ACL) but I don’t think Jameson is a great fit in Green Bay. I think Olave is the cleaner, Green Bay dude. He kind of reminds me of Greg Jennings a little bit. Not as great of a route-runner but smooth, consistent, great hands, very trustworthy. I know Aaron (Rodgers) would love him.”

Arkansas WR Treylon Burks

Framed as Burks would be a good fit with all those quick-hitting passes that went to Adams, the executive said: “You get him the ball in space, flex him outside and throw him jump balls. He’s a guy that you’ve got to play to his strengths. If you try to line him up as an X and say, ‘This dude’s going to win matchups and be that dynamic one-on-one receiver,’ he’s not really that person. You have to create the matchup for him and then you can take advantage of it. He is athletic. Personally, I’m OK on him. I think he was overhyped and it’s kind of come down the center a little bit. I’m just OK on him, to be honest, if you plan on taking him in (Round) 1.”

Asked if the Packers could draft him to create a bunch of schemed catches while he grows into a larger role, he said, “Fair. That’s fair to say. I wouldn’t bet on it, though.”

Penn State WR Jahan Dotson

Asked if Dotson is a slot-only receiver or if he could win across the formation, the executive said: “He’s going to win inside. I think he can play outside because he’s smart, he catches the ball, he can run a little bit. You can put him outside in certain situations and scheme up some vertical routes or scheme up some matchups. But he’s going to be a slot. That’s the interesting part. He’s kind of what they have already. Good player, good dude, good guy. Loves football, plays hard, really smart. He has all the intangibles but is probably just an OK talent.”

Georgia WR George Pickens

Framed as Pickens seems like the right fit because he’s big, fast and will block, the executive said: “From a talent perspective, he’s pretty much got everything you want. He’s big, he can run, he can play the ball in the air. He’s a freelancer a little bit but he’s a good route-runner. He has all the physical talent to be a good route-runner and get open in this league. His issue is off-the-field. You just don’t know if you’re getting the type of person you want. He is raw, he’s still immature. He can live off his ability. That dude is legit. If his character was better and he had some more productive seasons, he’d be a first-round pick. A high first-round pick.”

As someone responsible for making the picks on his team, how do you know when it’s the right time to pick a player like Pickens?

“There is no perfect formula. It’s a gut thing. There’s a line. You don’t put a certain quantitative figure on it. There’s a pick where the reward outweighs the risk. But it’s also based on where your picks are on. They’d probably have to take him with one of their first-round picks. He’s not going to be there with where they’re at in the second. He’s not getting to 53. You’d have to take him with your second pick (No. 28), probably.”

South Alabama WR Jalen Tolbert

“Big dude, kind of tight. More an outside-to-inside receiver. Hands are OK. Makes some contested catches. I think he’s more of a No. 3. You’d probably be re-creating a less-dyanmic Marquez (Valdes-Scantling). Marquez could give you legit explosive plays. But then he’d drop the easy, basic routes or shorter routes on third down. This dude probably catches a little bit more of the gimme targets, but he also doesn’t make as many dynamic plays. You’d be trying to upgrade if you take him too high. I think he’s a third-round pick.”

North Dakota State WR Christian Watson

“Wat, he’s big, raw, competition is one of the questions. His hands, depending on what level of film you watch, is one of the questions. But he really came to life throughout the spring. If you’re trying to bet on upside, he’s a dude you take in the second round. I just don’t know if he’s there with their second-round picks. He’s another one where they may have to just take a shot. People don’t give him enough credit. He’s like 6-4, 215, ran 4.3, athletic, makes plays with the ball in his hands. His competition wasn’t great so it’s hard to give him too much credit.”

Cincinnati WR Alec Pierce

“He reminds me of Jeff Janis but what you thought Jeff Janis should have been. Seriously. He’s big, he can run, he makes contested catches, he makes explosive plays down the field. He’s got that same upper-body tightness as Jeff so, on shorter routes or if he gets pressed, he won’t always get open quickly or he struggles to create separation. He’s not really productive after the catch, so he’s not going to be a great playmaker with the ball in his hands. But the dude was pretty productive for two years. I think he could be a really good third, maybe turn into a No. 2. He’ll be good on special teams, he’ll give you a big body on the outside. You know how Davante had that basketball to him? He’s like the complete opposite. Sometimes, he’s a little robotic but I like him. I think he should go in 3; maybe someone takes him in 2.”