Restricted Free Agency: How Much for Tonyan?

Obviously, the higher the tender, the greater the chance it will keep suitors at bay. On the other hand, the higher the tender, the greater the impact on the salary cap.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Whatever the final number for the salary cap, the Green Bay Packers remain well over it. That’s going to present an enormous challenge on a number of fronts for general manager Brian Gutekunst as he attempts to build a team capable of getting over the hump and to the Super Bowl.

It will be a challenge to get under the salary cap by the start of the league-year on March 17, even after Friday’s transactions. It will be a challenge to sign his own free agents, such as All-Pro center Corey Linsley and running back Aaron Jones. And it will be a challenge to add an impact player to the roster, such as with J.J. Watt.

Adding to that challenge is the future of tight end Robert Tonyan. A restricted free agent coming off a breakout season, the Packers control his future.

Or do they?

A restricted free agent is eligible for one of three tenders. The right-of-first-refusal tender is projected to be $2.133 million, according to OverTheCap.com. With that, the Packers can retain Tonyan by matching any offer but would get nothing in return if they let him depart. The second-round tender is projected to be $3.384 million and the first-round tender is projected to be $4.766 million. As is the case with the right-of-first-refusal tender, the Packers can keep Tonyan by matching any offer but would be compensated with the corresponding draft pick should they let him go to another team.

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Obviously, the higher the tender, the greater the chance it will keep suitors at bay. On the other hand, the higher the tender, the greater the impact on the salary cap. With the release of offensive tackle Rick Wagner and linebacker Christian Kirksey, the Packers are about $11.45 million over a projected salary cap of $180.5 million. Getting to the break-even point by March 17 will be tricky enough, let alone creating additional space to sign the draft class and handle in-season roster moves.

In a way, it could be a game of chicken.

After showing bits and pieces of his potential in 2018 and 2019, Tonyan was a breakout star this year with 52 receptions for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns. Of the 34 tight ends who were targeted at least 40 times in the passing game, Tonyan was No. 1 in catch percentage (89.7), drop percentage (0.0) and passer rating (148.3), according to Pro Football Focus. In the bizarro world that is Pro Bowl voting, he lost out to the Giants’ Evan Engram, who had more receptions (63) and yards (654) but lagged far behind in touchdowns (one), catch percentage (61.8), drop percentage (11.3) and passer rating (59.8).

With the Packers dealing with one of the worst cap situations in the NFL, the danger is some tight end-needy team with cap space could put together an offer sheet that would be hard for the Packers to beat. That doesn’t necessarily mean total dollars but the structure. A front-loaded offer might be hard for the Packers to match.

Putting the first- or second-round tender on him would reduce the risk as at least the Packers. It’s hard to imagine a team making a run at Tonyan if the Packers gave him the first-round tender. But how about the second-round tender? Tight end is considered one of the weakest positions in this year’s draft class. Is an ascending, in-his-prime player worth a second-round pick?

Tonyan tied for the NFL lead among tight ends with 11 touchdown receptions, thanks to an excellent feel for defenses and a growing chemistry with quarterback Aaron Rodgers. It’s a bond that started back in 2017, when Tonyan was new to the practice squad and Rodgers was on the comeback trail from a broken collarbone.

It was Rodgers and veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis who saw Tonyan’s potential and were pivotal in his rise to stardom.

“If you can’t imagine it, you can’t live it. If you don’t visualize it, you’re not going to get it,” Tonyan said late in the season. “And making those plays and having the guys around me in this locker room has been unreal. The support system I have with Marcedes and JO [position coach Justin Outten] and the tight end room letting me be me, and then having Davante (Adams), Allen (Lazard), MVS (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) having my back on the field and just at practice, hyping me up and telling me to go be myself, as well, and then, obviously, having Aaron isn’t all so bad, either.”