Rodgers’ Over/Under Passing Total Continues to Fall

Aaron Rodgers’ over/under for passing yards has fallen three times at sportsbooks.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Bettors just aren’t buying into Aaron Rodgers’ new-look Green Bay Packers receiver corps.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Rodgers’ total for passing yardage opened at 4,120.5 yards. Bettors dumped money on the under. So, the total was pushed down to 4,050.5 yards. Bettors still pounded the under. So, the total was pushed down further to 4,005 yards. Bettors continued to bet the under.

So, in the latest adjustment, FanDuel has adjusted Rodgers’ total down to 3,950.5 yards.

The downward trajectory isn’t an indictment on Rodgers, winner of the last two MVP awards and four overall. He has the fifth-shortest odds to win MVP at FanDuel at +1000. At SI Sportsbook, he is +900. Rather, it’s the perception – real or make-believe – that Green Bay’s receiver corps is doomed beyond repair following the Davante Adams trade.

Excluding the two seasons in which he missed about half of the season with broken collarbones, Rodgers has surpassed 4,000 yards 10 of 12 times. The exceptions were 2015 (3,821 yards) and the championship season of 2010 (3,922 yards). In both cases, his per-game averages would have pushed him over 4,000 yards under the new 17-game format.

Trading Adams could be a major blow. Over the last six seasons, he led all NFL receivers in receptions, yards and touchdowns. He led the league with 98.1 receiving yards per game in 2020 and was just off that mark with a 97.1-yard average in 2021.

In response, general manager Brian Gutekunst signed Sammy Watkins and drafted Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure. Along with veterans Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, they will have to carry the load.

“Every year,” Rodgers said on The Pat McAfee Show recently, “there's opinions that start coming out about players in helmets and shorts, and I would say let's everybody just take a nice deep long breath and trust the training camp time that we have, trust the coaching staff, trust the relationships that will continue to be formed, trust the guys in the room like Allen Lazard, and Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins to help these young guys out.”

To throw for 4,000 yards requires a 235.3-yard average over the course of 17 games. That total ranked merely 13th in the league last season.

Rodgers enters the season ranked 10th in NFL history with 55,360 passing yards. He is 1,663 yards behind Eli Manning for ninth place.

Ten Biggest Questions of Packers Training Camp

Here are the 10 biggest questions that must be answered during Packers training camp, from A (ACLs) to, well, A (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon carrying the offense).

1. Star Players' Return from Torn ACLs

There are a lot of questions surrounding the Green Bay Packers as they embark on the 2022 NFL season. The pursuit of answers will begin on Wednesday with the first practice of training camp.

The biggest question can be spelled out with merely three letters.

A.

C.

L.

Three of the team’s best players, offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins and tight end Robert Tonyan, are coming off torn ACLs. To state the obvious, the Packers need them to be on the field and playing at a high level for any potential drive to the playoffs.

The Packers haven’t won the Super Bowl since 2010. Might 2020 have been the year had Bakhtiari not suffered his knee injury at practice late in the season?

The Packers wound up losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-26 in the NFC Championship Game. Green Bay gave up five sacks in that game, with all of them coming against either Billy Turner (who moved from right tackle to left tackle) or Rick Wagner (who was inserted at right tackle). It’s impossible to believe the Packers would have given up that many sacks had Bakhtiari been on the field.

And they might have at least beaten the 49ers in last year’s divisional round had it been Bakhtiari at left tackle and Turner at right tackle instead of Turner at left tackle and Dennis Kelly at right tackle.

Or, they might have won that game and made a run to the Super Bowl had Bakhtiari’s initial replacement, Jenkins, not suffered a torn ACL at Minnesota in November. Jenkins had solidified his status as one of the NFL’s great offensive linemen. After allowing a total of one sack playing mostly left guard in 2019 and 2020, Jenkins allowed only two sacks in eight starts at left tackle last year.

When healthy, Bakhtiari and Jenkins are two of the best blockers in the NFL. Their availability – especially in January – is infinitely more important than the play of any of the rookie receivers.

Meanwhile, Tonyan needs to show that his 2020 – 52 catches, 11 touchdowns and zero drops – wasn’t a fluke. There were only seven incompletions thrown his way in 2020; last year, before the injury, there were 11. The Packers need Tonyan to return to his playmaking form to help offset the loss of Davante Adams.

Bakhtiari, Jenkins and Tonyan will start training camp on the physically unable to perform list. That was the expectation for Jenkins and Tonyan, but potentially worrisome news for Bakhtiari.

2. How Can Packers Replace Davante Adams?

Maybe a rejuvenated Sammy Watkins can resurrect his career. Maybe rookie Christian Watson will be the next big thing.

But, for at least the start of the season, the passing game will go as Allen Lazard goes. He was really good down the stretch last season. During the final five regular-season games, he caught 21-of-28 passes (75.0 percent) for 290 yards and five touchdowns. If Lazard could carry that through 17 games, he’d finish with 71 receptions for 986 yards and 17 touchdowns. The Packers would be ecstatic to get that kind of production in a more well-rounded attack.

There’s no doubt Lazard will get more opportunities, so that should help the numbers. On the other hand, he’ll be the player to watch for opposing defensive coordinators and he’s likely to face more No. 1 cornerbacks than ever.

“Excited about Allen Lazard,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers said at minicamp. “He’s been our dirty-work guy for most of his career here. Now he’s getting an opportunity to be a No. 1 receiver, so I’m not worried about him at all stepping into that role.”

Will more Lazard, the return of Robert Tonyan and the addition of Watkins and three draft picks be enough? That’s why quarterbacks and coaches get paid the big bucks. To make things work, regardless of circumstances.

“Every year,” Rodgers said recently on The Pat McAfee Show, “there’s opinions that start coming out about players in helmets and shorts, and I would say let's everybody just take a nice deep long breath and trust the training camp time that we have, trust the coaching staff, trust the relationships that will continue to be formed, trust the guys in the room like Allen Lazard, and Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins to help these young guys out.”

3. Can Rich Bisaccia Fix Special Teams?

New special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia’s to-do list is so long, he probably wishes training camp had opened a month ago.

He’s got to get Mason Crosby back on track, find a long snapper, find a returner, teach scheme, fix fundamentals and perhaps, most of all, instill a mentality and confidence that’s been lacking. All those things conspired to the Packers, once again, finishing in the basement of Rick Gosselin’s annual rankings.

For as poorly as the offense played in the divisional loss to the 49ers, all would have been good had Maurice Drayton’s units not imploded. The blocked punt that was scooped up for a touchdown provided a shocking ending to the season. At the same time, a massive special teams blunder had seemed inevitable.

Enter Bisaccia. His units have finished better than the Packers’ groups in the Gosselin rankings an incredible 10 consecutive seasons. Eight times during that span, Bisaccia’s units were at least 10 spots better.

“It’s certainly an opportunity to teach football and maybe teach some life lessons and maybe get guys to find a way to be the glue to the offense and defense,” Bisaccia said. “We use the phrase around here, ‘We-fense.’ It’s not really offense, it’s not really defense. It’s we-fense. It’s us. There’s no other place on the field except for the punt team where you can find a linebacker lined up next to a tight end lined up next to a safety and the running back is the personal protector making all the calls. That’s the only the place you find that on the field. I think a lot of my success or the success we’ve had on special teams in places I’ve been is really player-driven.”

4. Who Will Provide Depth, Production at Outside Linebacker?

Green Bay’s starting outside linebackers, Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, are excellent. But that’s an incredibly demanding position. Even if Gary and Smith start every game together, there’s a lot of snaps that will be up for grabs.

Last season, those other outside linebackers played 791 snaps. For perspective, that’s more than Smith (688) or Gary (681). The main three backups who are back from last season, Jonathan Garvin, Tipa Galeai and La’Darius Hamilton, combined for 2.5 sacks and two tackles for losses. The main addition was fifth-round pick Kingsley Enagbare.

5. Who Will Provide Depth in Secondary?

It’s the same problem at cornerback and safety as it is at outside linebacker. The starters are excellent. The depth – at least before the first practice of camp – is practically nonexistent.

At cornerback, the Packers have the best trio of starters in the NFL with Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes. However, they’re one injury away from the fourth cornerback moving into the starting lineup. During the offseason, that was Keisean Nixon. In three NFL seasons, he’s broken up one pass in 40 games.

At safety, the Packers have one of the best starting duos in the league with Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage. Every other safety on the roster combined to play zero defensive snaps in the NFL last season. The No. 3 safety during the offseason was Sean Davis. A fifth-round draft pick by the Colts last year, he played in one game as a rookie with nine snaps on special teams.

Maybe the five primary starters will play all 17 games and that depth won’t be needed. Maybe first-round pick Quay Walker will be so good that the Packers won’t have to play so much dime defense; last year’s third safety, Henry Black, played 262 snaps last year. More likely, the Packers are going to need a cornerback and safety to emerge in training camp and/or keep a constant eye on the waiver wire.

6. Is Quay Walker More Than Great Prospect?

Speaking of Quay Walker, the first-round pick is so big and athletic that he and All-Pro De’Vondre Campbell could form the league’s next great linebacker duo.

In 2019, the Packers bet on Rashan Gary’s potential and won. Now, they are betting on Walker’s potential. Like Gary, Walker’s statistical production in college wasn’t anything special. It’s rather incredible that a man of his stature didn’t force a single turnover in four seasons at Georgia and deflected only three passes as a senior.

In 2017, the Packers could have drafted T.J. Watt but instead took Kevin King. In 2022, the Packers could have drafted two-time Butkus Award winner Devin Lloyd but instead took Walker. In 52 games (15 starts), Walker had 137 tackles, five sacks, 11 tackles for losses, zero interceptions, zero forced fumbles and three passes defensed. Lloyd went five picks later to Jacksonville. Last year alone, he piled up 110 tackles, eight sacks, 22 tackles for losses, four interceptions, one forced fumble and 10 passes defensed.

7. How Long Until Rest of Rookies Can Contribute?

The Packers signed solid veteran defensive tackle Jarran Reed in free agency, so they don’t really need first-round pick Devonte Wyatt to be an immediate starter. They signed veteran receiver Sammy Watkins, so they don’t need second-round pick Christian Watson or fourth-round counterpart Romeo Doubs to be forced into the lineup immediately.

But those players are where there’s upside. Reed has years of quality play under his belt but Wyatt could be a game-changer. Same for Watson and Doubs compared to Watkins, who is trying to resurrect his career. For this team to be at its best in January, a few rookies are going to have to be difference-makers.

8. Can Mason Crosby Bounce Back?

The last time Mason Crosby had a bad season, he bounced back with the greatest sustained stretch of kicking in franchise history.

Even Crosby acknowledged that doesn’t mean a thing. A lot of things went wrong last year, including a change at holder at the end of training camp, shoddy protection and a swap of snappers at midseason. While he wouldn’t admit it, you have to think Crosby lined up for every kick wondering if the snap would be on target, the hold would be exact and everybody would get blocked.

With a new coordinator (Rich Bisaccia) and a new holder (veteran punter Pat O’Donnell), there will be no excuses for Crosby to not return to vintage form.

“He’s had a hell of a career,” Bisaccia said. “The one good thing I know about Crosby is that he’s come back from a down year to play really well. I’m excited about being around him, learning from him, seeing what his strengths are and where we can go forward and keep improving.”

9. Can Rasul Douglas, Eric Stokes Lead Pick Parade?

Can Rasul Douglas replicate last year’s production? And can Eric Stokes maximize his potential production?

Douglas intercepted five passes last season, as many as he did his first four seasons combined. Due in part to improved study habits taught by defensive backs coach Jerry Gray, Douglas’ instincts are superb, leading to optimism that he won’t be a one-year wonder.

Meanwhile, Stokes, who was last year’s first-round draft pick, had one interception, but his four dropped interceptions were tied for most in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. Assuming Jaire Alexander returns to All-Pro form, the defense could truly be a force to be reckoned with if Douglas and Stokes combine for eight or 10 interceptions.

10. Can Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon Carry the Load?

Without Davante Adams, the Packers will need running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to pick up some of the slack.

Famously, the Packers went 7-0 without Adams the past three seasons. The play of Jones has been a big reason why. With Adams on the sideline, Jones posted:

182 total yards, four touchdowns vs. Dallas in 2019

60 total yards vs. Detroit in 2019

83 total yards, one touchdown vs. Oakland in 2019

226 total yards, two touchdowns vs. Kansas City in 2019

86 total yards, one touchdown vs. New Orleans in 2020

111 total yards, one touchdown vs. Atlanta in 2020

110 total yards, one touchdown vs. Arizona in 2021

That’s an average of 122.6 yards per game and a total of 10 touchdowns in those seven games. Can the 27-year-old be that explosive over the course of the season, or at least until the receiver situation in settled?

Meanwhile, running back AJ Dillon is coming off a solid second season. Now, he needs to get more explosive, too. Last year, 50 running backs had at least 100 carries. Dillon’s 10-yad run rate of 4.8 percent was by far the worst in the league. Dillon has shown a tremendous knack for turning 2 yards into 4 or 5. He needs to turn 5-yard runs into 15 or 20.

All-NFC North Offense

Our preseason all-NFC North team includes three members of the Green Bay Packers and eight unanimous selections.

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Packers (unanimous)

Rodgers, who has won back-to-back MVPs and four overall, is No. 1 in NFL history with a 4.83 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes (4.08), Russell Wilson (3.36) and Tom Brady (3.07) are the only quarterbacks at 3.00 or better. How dominant is Rodgers in this category? If he were to start this season with 16 interceptions and zero touchdowns, he’d still be ahead of Mahomes.

Running back: Dalvin Cook, Vikings (unanimous)

After injuries plagued his first two seasons, Cook has stayed healthy for at least 13 games in each of the last three years and has established himself as one of the NFL’s elite running backs with 4,955 total yards. He shines with a combination of vision, burst, agility, and power. Cook should be in line for another big season in 2022, perhaps with a larger receiving role in Kevin O’Connell’s offense.

Receiver: Justin Jefferson, Vikings (unanimous)

Mike Zimmer didn’t put Jefferson in the starting lineup until Week 3 of his rookie year in 2020. The then-21-year-old broke out with an incredible 175-yard game that day and hasn’t looked back. He leads all players in receiving yards over the last two seasons and is at or near the top in almost every advanced metric among receivers. Jefferson is a true young superstar who is already the face of the Vikings’ franchise.

Receiver: Adam Thielen, Vikings

It’s been a while since Thielen put up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2017 and 2018. He hasn’t gotten back to the 1K mark since then, as injuries and age have limited his production. Where he has continued to dominate is in the red zone; Thielen is one of four receivers with 30 receiving TDs since 2019. During that period, he’s dropped only eight passes.

Slot receiver: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (unanimous)

The younger brother of former Packers receiver Equanimeous St. Brown, really started to shine during the second half of his rookie season. His reception in the end zone against the Vikings gave coach Dan Campbell his first victory. His 90 receptions trailed only Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle among rookies, and he finished the season with eight catches for 109 yards and one touchdown against Green Bay.

Tight end: T.J. Hockenson, Lions

The eighth pick of the 2019 draft, it’s time for Hockenson to take the next step in his career following back-to-back seasons of 60-plus catches. Quarterback Jared Goff will be relying on Hockenson to stay healthy to provide another option in the passing game. New offensive coordinator Ben Johnson should have ample opportunity to unlock his potential, as he previously served as the team's tight ends coach.

Left tackle: David Bakhtiari, Packers (unanimous)

Bakhtiari, a five-time All-Pro, suffered a torn ACL on New Year’s Eve 2020. Would the Packers have reached the Super Bowl had he been on the field for the NFC title game against Tampa Bay? And would have last season ended differently had Bakhtiari made a successful comeback from the injury? When he last played in 2020, he gave up one sack.

Guard: Elgton Jenkins, Packers (unanimous)

Jenkins is another member of the Packers’ ACL Club. A Pro Bowl guard in 2020, he slid out to left tackle to replace Bakhtiari last season. In the process, Jenkins solidified his standing as one of the best linemen in the NFL. However, he suffered a torn ACL at Minnesota in November. When he’s healthy, he could return to guard or play right tackle.

Center: Frank Ragnow, Lions (unanimous)

The Lions’ offensive line unit has received plenty of praise this offseason. It is expected that Ragnow and Co. will gel quickly to protect Jared Goff and open holes for the speedy D'Andre Swift. Ragnow is a top player at his position, so his presence was felt the 13 games he missed after foot surgery. In 17 games the past two seasons, he allowed zero sacks.

Guard: Cody Whitehair, Bears; Jonah Jackson, Lions (tie)

Whitehair is the only Bears lineman who has been in the Pro Bowl, although it was at center in 2018 and not left guard where he is now. He allows an average of less than three sacks a year, and Pro Football Focus has graded him as high as an 87.5 but no lower than a 64.9 as a blocker throughout his career.

I was genuinely surprised the other insiders placed votes for Jackson. He made strides in Year 2 but, while he allowed only two sacks, but still allowed 35 pressures. His skills should greatly benefit the run game, which Dan Campbell wants to keep improving. If Jackson is able to continue his development as a pass protector, he could earn another Pro Bowl nod in 2022.

Right tackle: Brian O’Neill, Vikings (unanimous)

The Vikings haven’t had a homegrown offensive lineman like O’Neill in quite some time. He’s the definition of a steady and reliable at right tackle. Last season, he allowed one sack and constantly using his athleticism and technique to create holes in the running game. O’Neill made the Pro Bowl last year, making him the first Vikings OL to receive that honor in nearly a decade.

Kicker: Cairo Santos, Bears

Santos set the Bears’ record for field-goal accuracy in 2020 at 93.8 percent (30-of-32). Including last season, when he made 26-of-30, his two-year mark for Chicago is a lofty 89.1 percent. He made a run at the NFL record for consecutive field goals of 44 held by Adam Vinatieri, hitting 40 straight before a 2021 miss. He’s doing this outdoors and at one of the league’s worst facilities for kickers.

NFC North Insiders: All-Defense Team

Our preseason all-NFC North defense includes six members of the Green Bay Packers, highlighted by unanimous picks Kenny Clark and Jaire Alexander.

Edge: Rashan Gary, Packers

Gary proved the Packers right for picking him at No. 12 overall in 2019. Last season, he had 9.5 sacks but ranked second in pressures and pass-rush win rate and third in pass-rushing productivity at Pro Football Focus. Gary is so big and explosive. There isn’t a bit of finesse to his game. The key will be turning more of those 81 pressures into sacks.

Defensive tackle: Kenny Clark, Packers (unanimous)

A Pro Bowler in 2019 and 2021, Clark is one of the few NFL defensive linemen capable of dominating a game on first down as well as third down. While he had only four sacks, he ranked fourth among interior defensive linemen with 67 pressures, according to PFF. Drafted in the first round in 2016, he is only 26. The Packers have some rookies who are 26.

Defensive tackle: Dalvin Tomlinson, Vikings (unanimous)

Tomlinson was the Vikings' big free agent splash in 2021 after turning into a major contributor with the Giants. He's not a spectacular player or a particularly prolific pass rusher, but he does the dirty work of plugging holes in the run game and taking on double teams so his teammates can make plays. Tomlinson is a key piece of the Vikings' front.

Edge: Robert Quinn, Bears; Danielle Hunter, Vikings (tied)

By posting 18 1/2 sacks last year to break Richard Dent's single-season franchise record, Quinn erased memories of his two-sack 2020 season. Quinn has 101 career sacks and forced 32 fumbles, including seven with the Bears. Now 32, he is playing end in a 4-3 scheme, where he has been most effective throughout his career.

Linebacker: Roquan Smith, Bears (unanimous)

Smith has joined elite company, as he and Pro Football Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis are the only two at the position ever to make 300-plus tackles and 30-plus tackles for losses in a span of only two seasons. Smith has 302 tackles and 30 for losses. Although he hasn’t made a Pro Bowl, Smith has been second-team All-Pro two straight years and now plays weak side linebacker.

Linebacker: De’Vondre Campbell, Packers

In 2021, the first several waves of free agency had come and gone. Finally, during the June minicamp, the Packers signed Campbell to a one-year deal worth merely $2 million. The reward? An All-Pro season – the first by a Packers off-the-ball linebacker since Hall of Famer Ray Nitschke. He was the only linebacker in the NFL with 100-plus tackles and at least two sacks, two forced fumbles and two interceptions. By a 3-1 vote, he beat out Vikings star Eric Kendricks for a spot on the team.

Cornerback: Jaire Alexander, Packers (unanimous)

Alexander earned All-Pro honors in 2020 but missed most of last season with a shoulder injury. The Packers recently made him the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history. And for good reason. While he has only five interceptions in four seasons, Alexander gave up completion rates of 48.5 percent in 2019, 42.3 percent in 2020 and 46.7 percent during his injury-shortened 2021, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Cornerback: Amani Oruwariye (unanimous)

The talented defensive back has cemented himself as being one of Detroit’s best players. A fifth-round pick in 2019, he finished third in the NFL last season with six interceptions. The expectation from the coaching staff is now for Oruwariye to evolve into a shutdown cornerback. With Jeff Okudah, the third overall pick in 2020, being a huge question mark, Detroit can count on its No. 1 cornerback.

Cornerback: Rasul Douglas, Packers; Jaylon Johnson, Bears (tied)

What a year for Douglas. He wasn’t re-signed by the Panthers in free agency, was released by the Raiders and Texans in training camp, and had to settle for a spot on the Cardinals’ practice squad. That’s where the Packers found a real X-factor. In 12 games, he tied for fourth with five interceptions – including two pick-sixes- and ranked No. 1 in passer rating allowed, according to PFF.

The first rookie to start at cornerback on opening day for the Bears since 1996, Johnson's 24 career pass defenses are the most for any NFC North player over the past two seasons. Johnson was given the task of covering a team's top receiver all over the field last year. He has given up 58 percent completions when targeted according to Sportradar.

Safety: Harrison Smith, Vikings (unanimous)

Smith's game has aged quite well, in large part because of his instincts and intelligence. The 2012 first-rounder has been one of the best safeties in the league for a decade now, and a few more strong seasons could help his case for Canton. It'll be fun to watch the Vikings' longest-tenured player play alongside talented rookie Lewis Cine in the secondary this year.

Safety: Adrian Amos, Packers

Amos is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Perhaps that’s due to a lack of big plays. He has four consecutive seasons of two interceptions. A big thing at safety is preventing big plays, and that’s where Amos is incredible. He’s in the right place at the right time every time, and he’s one of the best open-field tacklers in the business.

Punter: Jack Fox, Lions

Fox has burst on to the scene with his booming leg, finishing second in the league in punting and sixth in net average. Detroit’s special teams unit is well coached, as coordinator Dave Fipp has maximized the potential of the players on the roster. Nobody likes having to punt, but having Fox gives the defense hopes of being able to pin opponents deep in their own zone with high frequency.