Slow-Starting Packers Follow Losing First-Half Scripts
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Someone get the Green Bay Packers’ offense an alarm clock and an espresso.
The Packers enter Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings with a first-half offense so bad that it would make Freddy Krueger scream.
After scoring 38 points against Chicago in Week 1 and 24 points in Week 2, the Packers en route to scoring 68 points the last four games:
- Rank 30th with 3.0 yards per snap in the first quarter with a league-worst eight first downs.
- Rank 32nd with 2.5 yards per snap in the second quarter with a league-worst 12 first downs.
- Rank 32nd with 2.7 yards per snap in the first half. They are last in the NFL in touchdowns (zero), field goals (two), points (six) and first downs (20). For additional context, the Packers have punted 13 times while the Dolphins have scored 13 touchdowns.
The Packers have lost three consecutive games, and it’s easy to zero in on the problem.
It’s all the zeroes on the first-half scoreboard.
For all the time and energy spent on assembling a fast-starting game plan, the Packers have started games like a sloth slathered in Gorilla Glue.
“It is interesting how that has played out,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “Every week, you come in and emphasize, ‘Hey, we need to start fast.’ You pick the plays that you think the guys are really comfortable with and can give you a chance to get things rolling to try and get the quarterback in a groove – all of that stuff.”
Instead, against Denver, for instance, the Packers’ first three drives gained 8, 16 and 10 yards and they trailed 9-0 at halftime.
There hasn’t been a ladder on earth tall enough to get the Packers out of the holes they’ve dug. On a per-game basis through Week 7, Green Bay is 28th in first-quarter scoring and 32nd in second-quarter scoring but first in third-quarter scoring and fourth in fourth-quarter scoring.
Can Packers coach Matt LaFleur find a winning first-half game plan vs. the Vikings?
Photo by Ron Chenoy/USA Today Sports Images
“I think guys kind of take a breath and, as the game goes on, they just feel more comfortable and start executing better,” said Stenavich, who worked from the press box last week to get a better view of the Denver secondary. “Our biggest thing in the first half, is just untimely penalties, negative plays – things like that that just kill drives and really stymie our execution.
“We keep talking about it, we keep focusing on it and making sure we’re focused, we’re dialed in and every drive is important. Anytime we get the ball we’ve got to make sure that we’re doing whatever we can to come away with points.”
Like most, if not all, teams, the Packers script their opening possessions. It’s not a script in the strict sense of Play 1 is a run to the left and Play 2 is a run to the right, Play 3 is designed to get the ball to a receiver on a crossing route and so on through Play 14, which is a screen, and Play 15, which is a bootleg.
The Packers call that opening sequence of plays “openers.”
“You have your first grouping of plays that you want to use to either see what the defense is doing or use to set up other plays,” Stenavich explained. “It’s a combination of both that you have on normal down and distances and then you have some other plays for certain situations, like if you get across a certain yard line or third-and-short or whatever.”
The intent is to move the ball, obviously, but also to feature certain players, get other players settled into the game, set up future plays and explore how the defense is going to line up against specific personnel groups in specific situations.
“You try to anticipate how somebody’s going to play you. And you’re not always correct,” coach Matt LaFleur said. For one play against Denver, he thought the Broncos would match a three-receiver set with a nickel defense. Instead, the Broncos lined up in their base defense.
“You’ve got to trust your process in terms of what you’re studying,” LaFleur continued. “Also, be mindful of what you’ve already put on tape. That kind of helps you come to how you best want to attack somebody with the openers. It’s the same process that we’ve used every year since I’ve been here, and even prior to coming here in all our stops. For whatever reason, we’re not as successful with that this year.”
It's not as if LaFleur doesn’t know how to put together a fast-starting game plan. In 2020, the Packers on their opening drive scored 73 points on the strength of nine touchdowns and four field goals. All three of those figures were the most in the NFL since 2000.
Green Bay’s problems run deeper than the play of Jordan Love, though his numbers in the passing game paint the gloomy picture.
Of the 34 quarterbacks who’ve thrown at least 20 passes in the first halves since Week 3, Love according to Stathead ranks:
- 34th with a 50.5 passer rating. No other quarterback is less than 65.0 and the league median is 95.1.
- 34th with 4.2 yards per attempt. Only Denver’s Russell Wilson (4.8) and Arizona’s Joshua Dobbs (4.9) are within 1.2 yards of Love. The league median is 7.2 yards per attempt.
- 33rd with a 55.6 percent completion rate. Only Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett (50.9 percent) is worse and the league median is 66.7 percent.
Sunday’s opponent, the Vikings, rank 14th with 10.9 points allowed per game in the first half.
“That’s obviously a focus with the slow starts we’ve had,” Love said. “The opening script, Matt does a good job, I think, of coming up with plays that we feel good about, we feel confident in, we feel like are going to work.
“It’s tough. You’ve got to figure out what the defense, what their game plan is for that week and what plays are going to be good vs. that. But for us to start fast, consistency and execution – we just have to do a better job of starting fast and then just making plays early on, get guys going and get that juice flowing just by making plays.”
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