Soaring NFL Salary Cap Doesn’t Change Packers’ Reality

The Green Bay Packers received some good news when the NFL raised the salary cap by $30 million. Here is the NFC North-related reality check.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The NFL increased the salary cap for the 2024 season by an unprecedented $30 million. That’s great news for the Green Bay Packers and the man tasked with maneuvering around the salary cap, Russ Ball. With the cap about $13 million more than anticipated, Ball won’t have to work up quite as much of a sweat to dig the team out of its financial hole.

So, that’s the good news.

Now, here’s the reality check.

According to numbers from OverTheCap.com, the Packers still have the ninth-worst cap situation in the league. OTC’s fresh numbers show the Packers are about $2.34 million under the salary cap. Once the draft class is signed, they’ll be about $2.18 million on the wrong side of the ledger just to be cap-compliant, let alone sign free agents or extend Jordan Love.

The news gets worse from there.

While the Packers did some damage as the NFC’s seventh seed by shocking Dallas in the wild-card round, they would have had to win three consecutive road games to advance to the Super Bowl. No team has done that since the 2020 Buccaneers swept through the NFC, culminated with a win at Lambeau Field against the Packers in the conference championship game.

In fact, since the Packers won the Super Bowl as the No. 6 seed in 2010, those Buccaneers were the only Super Bowl team that did not win its division.

In other words, Green Bay’s road to the Super Bowl begins with winning the NFC North. Which brings us back to the salary cap.

According to OTC:

• The Chicago Bears have the third-most cap space at $78.34 million. That’s $76 million more than Green Bay. While the Bears finished last in the NFC North with a 7-10 record, they won four out of five games down the stretch before losing to the Packers in Week 18. Armed with the first and ninth overall picks of the draft, they’re in position to sign a handful of impact veterans before drafting a quarterback to turn around their franchise.

• The Detroit Lions have the seventh-most cap space at $57.61 million. That’s about $55 million more than Green Bay. The Lions, of course, stormed through the NFC North and were leading the 49ers by 17 points at halftime in the NFC Championship Game. Armed with a lot of cap space and four picks in the first three rounds, they’re in position to continue their build toward a Super Bowl.

• The Minnesota Vikings have the 13th-most cap space at $35.81 million. That’s about $33.5 million more than Green Bay. If they re-sign quarterback Kirk Cousins and he is able to make a full comeback from the torn Achilles sustained at Lambeau Field, they should be able to bounce back quickly from last year’s 7-10 finish.

The news isn’t all doom and gloom. The team everyone in the NFC is chasing is San Francisco. The 49ers rank right behind Green Bay in space. By OTC’s projections, they are about $5.1 million over the cap. The Cowboys are a couple spots worse at about $9.9 million over the cap.

Of course, every team will figure it out by the start of the league-year on March 13. Ball has plenty of levers to pull, with the release of left tackle David Bakhtiari being perhaps the most obvious way to create almost $21 million. Restructuring the hefty roster bonuses due for cornerback Jaire Alexander, outside linebacker Rashan Gary and Preston Smith and left guard Elgton Jenkins would create space, as well, though that’s merely filling one hole by digging another. A long-term extension for defensive tackle Kenny Clark would be a win-win.

The thing is, most teams have ways to clear tens of millions of dollars of cap space, as well, if they choose. So, while the Packers will get below the cap and have money to spend with a lot less stress than last year, they’ll still have less money than most teams – including the NFC North teams.

And money talks. Loudly. If the Lions and the Packers are vying for the same player, who’s going to win? The team that can offer $50 million over four years or the team that can only offer $40 million?

Green Bay’s financial predicament, while obviously not nearly as dire as last year, is the fallout from its pursuit of a Super Bowl during the final couple years with Aaron Rodgers. Gutekunst and Ball did what needed to be done. It didn’t work. Now, they’re taking their medicine.

Over the next couple weeks, it will be fascinating to see if they do the minimum necessary to field a team this year so they can get back to more of a pay-as-you-go approach to team-building. Or if they’ll see a team ready to win now and continue the credit-card approach to roster management in hopes of adding the missing pieces necessary to play a game in New Orleans in February.

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