These Receivers Might Not Be on Packers’ Draft Board

With a big need to add multiple receivers, a deep draft class awaits the Green Bay Packers. From a pure measurables perspective, here’s a look at who fits and who does not fit in the 2023 NFL Draft.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – For years, the Green Bay Packers’ philosophy on drafting receivers was akin to the Randy Newman classic, “Short People Have No Reason to Live.”

From 2005 through 2020, no receiver 5-foot-10 or shorter was drafted. The shortest was Randall Cobb at 5-foot-10 1/4 in the second round in 2011.

In 2021, general manager Brian Gutekunst seemed to divert from that history by using a third-round pick on Amari Rodgers, who measured 5-foot-9 1/2.

“When you see him, when you get up on him, he’s not a small man. He’s just not tall,” Gutekunst said at the time. “So, I do think he’s a little different maybe than some of the other slot guys you see across the league because he’s just built a little bit more like a running back.”

Sure enough, Rodgers weighed 212 pounds. Of the 19 receivers taken in the first 140 selections that year, only Michigan’s Nico Collins (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) was heavier.

That history is pertinent entering the 2023 NFL Draft. Even after drafting three receivers last year, Green Bay has a huge need. Only five receivers are under contract; only three have caught a pass. Between the draft and undrafted free agency, expect Green Bay to come out of the weekend with five receivers.

Height

Overall, this is a short group of receivers.

Using 5-foot-10 as a hypothetical cutoff, these receivers might not be on the board:

Boston College’s Zay Flowers, who is considered a first-round prospect, is 5-foot-9 1/4 and 182 pounds. Three more Day 2 prospects – North Carolina’s Josh Downs (5-8 3/4, 171), Cincinnati’s Tyler Scott (5-9 3/4, 177 pounds) and Houston’s Tank Dell (5-8 3/8, 165 pounds) – also are short and small.

A few Day 3 options – Cincinnati’s Tre Tucker (5-8 5/8, 182), TCU’s Derius Davis (5-8 3/8, 165) and Liberty’s Demario Douglas (5-8 1/4, 179) – probably won’t be considered, either.

Using the Amari Rodgers Principle, Penn State’s Parker Washington might be on it. He’s 5-foot-9 3/4 but 204 pounds with huge 10 1/8-inch hands.

Hands

Hand size is an overlooked factor. Is it easier to catch a football with big hands or small hands, especially on a cold winter day?

In the 18 drafts conducted by Ted Thompson and Gutekunst, Davante Adams had the smallest hands at 9 inches.

Using 9-inch hands as a hypothetical cutoff, these receivers might not be on the board:

USC’s Jordan Addison, a first-round candidate, has 8 3/4-inch hands. Would the Packers take him off the board? His history doesn’t provide an easy answer. He caught the ball exceptionally well with the Trojans last year (two drops, 3.3 percent) but was butter-fingered at Pittsburgh (21 drops, 11.6 percent in 2020 and 2021).

The aforementioned group of Dell, Tucker, Davis and Douglas also have small hands. Just about everyone else in the class is fine, with the exception of Princeton’s Andrei Iosivas. The record-setting heptathlete and FCS All-American has 8 3/4-inch hands. Fresno State’s Jalen Moreno-Cropper has 8 7/8 hands.

Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the consensus No. 1 receiver in the draft, and Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt, a potential first-round pick, hit 9 inches on the nose. Or thumb.

Bonus points to the 10-inch group, which included Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs last year: Ole Miss’ Jonathan Mingo, Tennessee’s Cedric Tillman, Virginia’s Dontayvion Wicks (who had a predraft visit), Stanford’s Elijah Higgins and the aforementioned Washington of Penn State.

USC's Jordan Addison (USA Today Sports Images)

Weight

Weight might not be something you normally think about receivers. Usually, it’s height and 40 time. But it’s perhaps worth noting the lightest receivers drafted by the Packers were Cory Rodgers (fourth round, 2006), David Clowney (fifth round, 2007) and Trevor Davis (fifth round, 2016) at 188 pounds.

Using even 180 pounds as a hypothetical cutoff, these receivers might not be on the board:

First three rounds: USC’s Jordan Addison, 173; Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt, 176; North Carolina’s Josh Downs, 171; Cincinnati’s Tyler Scott, 177; Houston’s Tank Dell, 165

Day 3 options: Purdue’s Charlie Jones, 175, Fresno State’s Jalen Moreno-Cropper, 172.

Speed

Everybody likes speed. The historic Scouting Combine average in the 40-yard dash is 4.50. That was beaten by all four of Green Bay’s 2022 rookies: Watson (4.36 at Combine), Doubs (4.47 at pro day), Toure (4.48 at pro day) and Bo Melton (4.34 at Combine), a seventh-round pick by Seattle that Green Bay added last year.

During the 18 Thompson-Gutekunst drafts, James Jones, a third-round pick in 2007 who had a strong career, and J’Mon Moore, a fourth-round pick who bombed in 2018, were the slowest drafted receivers with a 40-yard times of 4.60 seconds. At pro day, Moore sliced his time to 4.49 while Jones improved just a bit to 4.58.

Using 4.60 as a hypothetical cutoff, these receivers might not be on the board:

This might not be a spectacularly fast group but, overall, the speed is good. Perhaps nobody draft-worthy failed to make the cut. East Carolinas C.J. Johnson posted a 4.66 and UCLA’s Jake Bobo ran an appalling 4.99.

20-Yard Shuttle

As is the case at most positions, the Packers like players with fast 20-yard shuttle times. The historic Scouting Combine average is 4.23 seconds. That was beaten by Watson (4.19), Toure (4.22) and Melton (4.10) last year; Doubs does not have a time.

The slowest shuttle among Green Bay’s drafted receivers belongs to Jordy Nelson (4.35).

Using 4.40 as a hypothetical cutoff, these receivers might not be on the board:

More and more, prospects are skipping this drill. Especially for those prospects who rank near the top of their class, it can do more harm than good. Smith-Njigba, who missed almost all of his 2022 season with a hamstring injury, did do the shuttle and produced an electric 3.93. Of the draft-worthy receiver who did run it, only Tucker, Douglas, Johnson and South Alabama’s Jalen Wayne – cousins with former NFL star Reggie Wayne – failed to beat the mark.

RAS

Relative Athletic Score takes all the key measurables and puts them on a 0-to-10 scale with other players in the position group.

Gutekunst has drafted seven receivers. Six have a RAS (Doubs the exception as he was coming off an injury). Those numbers: Watson (9.96), Equanimeous St. Brown (9.85) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (9.26) were elite, Moore (8.43) was very good, and Toure (6.14) and Rodgers (5.35) were just above average.

The Packers haven’t been afraid to go with talent over athleticism with Jared Abbrederis (fifth round, 2014, 4.66), Cobb (3.65) and Cory Rodgers (fourth round, 2005, 2.39).

The long-term history suggests RAS, to some extent, is irrelevant. Gutekunst’s history says it matters but he’s not limited by the number.

What’s Fate of the Top Receiver Prospects?

About 20 receivers have a chance to be taken in the first four rounds.

Based on Green Bay’s history, here are the potential misses:

USC’s Jordan Addison (hands)

Boston College’s Zay Flowers (size)

Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt (weight)

North Carolina’s Josh Downs (size, weight)

Cincinanti’s Tyler Scott (size, weight)

Houston’s Tank Dells (size, hands, weight)

Penn State’s Parker Washington (size)

Based on Green Bay’s history, here are the best (but not only) hits:

Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba (barely makes it on hands but crushed the shuttle)

TCU’s Quentin Johnston

Mississippi’s Jonathan Mingo

Tennessee’s Cedric Tillman

SMU’s Rashee Rice

Nebraska’s Trey Palmer

Stanford’s Michael Wilson

LSU’s Kayshon Boutte

Virginia’s Dontayvion Wicks

Green Bay Packers Free Agency and Draft News

Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
An All-American in the heptathlon.
A former minor-league baseball player.
Some Lazard-style options.
Five-star recruits and one-year wonders.

Here are 24 receiver prospects for the #Packers, with stats, scouting and personal stories.https://t.co/1MPvIdhHl3

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) April 23, 2023

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