Three Days to Kickoff: 3 Reasons to Worry vs. Buccaneers

Here are three reasons to worry that the Packers might be packing a 4-1 record on their return trek to Green Bay.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 4-0 and one-point favorites for Sunday’s game at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the toughest test to date for coach Matt LaFleur’s team.

Here are three reasons to worry that the Packers might be packing a 4-1 record on their return trek to Green Bay.

Can Rodgers Handle the Heat?

The Packers have provided superior pass protection for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay has allowed a sack rate of 2.16 percent. That’s the best in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, the offensive linemen haven’t given up a single quarterback hit, let alone a sack.

Tampa Bay’s defense will be a major test. It’s fifth in the NFL with a sack rate of 9.50 percent. Seven defenders have at least two sacks. It’s a group that includes Shaq Barrett, who has three sacks this season after a league-high 19.5 last season.

The winner here could win the game. A big reason for Rodgers’ sensational start is the time he’s had time in the pocket. However, it’s worth noting this critical stat: According to PFF, Rodgers’ completion percentage when pressured is just 34.6 percent. Of the 34 quarterbacks with 20 percent playing time, Rodgers’ accuracy beats only two quarterbacks who have been benched: Washington’s Dwayne Haskins and Chicago’s Mitchell Trubisky.

Overall, Rodgers has thrown 13 touchdowns vs. zero interceptions in putting on a weekly quarterbacking clinic.

“His touchdown-to-interception ratio, he basically doesn’t throw interceptions and throws a lot of touchdowns,” Bucs quarterback Tom Brady said. “He’s one of the great quarterbacks to ever play the game.”

Can Packers Handle the Heat?

The weather will be no joke. In Green Bay, it’s furnace season. In Tampa Bay, it’s sweating season. Sunday’s forecast calls for a high of 88 and a heat index approaching 100.

From 2006 through the start of this season, the Packers have played in only six road games with a high of 80-plus degrees. They are 3-3 in those games, including 0-2 at Tampa Bay. Those two games include half of Rodgers’ career total of three-interception games.

“I’ve had a couple rough ones down there,” Rodgers said.

One more statistical anomaly: The Packers have lost three straight in games immediately following their bye. League-wide over the last decade, teams coming off their bye have won barely 50 percent of the time.

Thus, LaFleur’s concern is real: “I think you’re always a little concerned when you hit the pause button when you have that momentum, because I think momentum is real and, once it goes one way or the other, it just gets rolling.”

Can Packers Handle Brady’s Bunch of Weapons?

With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at receiver, Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate at tight end, and Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette at running back, the Buccaneers have as many weapons as any team in the NFL.

Can Green Bay’s run defense contend with Jones and Fournette, who are averaging about 5 yards per carry? If not, it’s going to be a long game. A bunch of second- and third-and-shorts will play right into the hands of the legendary Brady, whose play-action passer rating is 114.1.

Evans and Godwin are a tremendous tandem. The Packers have a top cornerback duo with Jaire Alexander and Kevin King. However, King hasn’t practiced this week with an injured thigh. He’s the logical candidate to face Evans, whose first six NFL seasons have all topped 1,000 receiving yards.

“I want to be where they are,” Evans said. “They're undefeated, so we can't do that. I definitely want to be top of the division, things like that. We know that they're a really good football team. But week-in, week-out, you can lose any given Sunday or Thursday or Monday or Tuesday, whatever day we’re playing. Any team in this league can be beat by any team. We’ve seen that in the past. We’ve just got to come with our game, eliminate the penalties and the turnovers, and I like our chances.”