Three Overreactions From Packers’ Victory Over Lions

The Green Bay Packers scored their biggest win of the season on Thanksgiving, beating the Detroit Lions 29-22. Here are our three big takeaways.

DETROIT – This next-generation version of the Green Bay Packers scored its biggest win on Thursday, a 29-22 victory at the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions.

“We said today that the turkey was going to be much better if we get a win and we got that win. We came out starting fast, scoring on the first drive,” guard Elgton Jenkins said.

Here are our weekly overreactions.

1. Yes, Jordan Love Is For Real

It’s one thing to win at Chicago in his first game as the full-time starter. It’s one thing to outduel Justin Herbert and the Chargers at Lambeau Field. It’s quite another thing to go into Detroit and beat the Lions.

From Game 8 through Game 11, 25 quarterbacks have thrown at least 40 passes. Jordan Love is still a bit too inaccurate, ranking 16th with a completion rate of 65.4 percent, but he’s made a lot of big plays. He’s seventh with a 103.1 passer rating and, most notably, sixth with 8.0 yards per attempt.

From Game 2 through Game 7, 27 quarterbacks threw at least 150 passes. Love was 26th with a completion rate of 57.4 percent, 27th with a 72.3 passer rating and 25th with 6.0 yards per attempt.

That last number is striking – from near the bottom in yards per attempt to near the top. That’s connecting for big plays and putting his receivers in position to make something happen after the catch.

The last six opponents of the season are the Chiefs, Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers, Vikings and Bears. By opponent passer rating, they rank ninth, 15th, 27th, 19th, 21st and 26th, respectively.

One more statistical note: The last four games, the Packers are No. 1 in third-down conversions. During those games, Love’s passer rating is 117.4 with four touchdowns vs. zero interceptions. The previous four games, Love’s rating was 44.1 with one touchdown vs. four interceptions.

The Packers aren’t winning in spite of their quarterback. They are winning because of their quarterback.

2. Third-Round Jinx Is Over

The third round has been a wasteland for the Packers. From 2011 through 2023, the Packers selected 11 players in the third round. Only one player, tight end Richard Rodgers in 2014, started more than a season’s worth of games in a Packers uniform. You’d do better picking names from a hat.

Brian Gutekunst’s picks were linebacker Oren Burks in 2018, tight end Jace Sternberger in 2019, tight end Josiah Deguara in 2020 receiver Amari Rodgers in 2021, guard Sean Rhyan in 2022 and tight end Tucker Kraft in 2023. Combined, they’ve started 20 games with the Packers.

From First Down to Third Down to Touchdown for Kraft

However, Rhyan and Kraft look like rising players.

With veteran starter Jon Runyan headed to free agency his offseason, the Packers have been sprinkling Rhyan into the lineup with a combined 34 snaps vs. the Rams, Chargers and Lions. He’s shown some promise. It a ridiculously small sample size, but the Packers average 7.50 yards per rushing play with Rhyan compared to 4.05 for Runyan, according to league data.

With rookie starter Luke Musgrave out with a kidney injury, Kraft is getting an incredible opportunity. He played 54 of 56 offensive snaps against the Lions. Not surprisingly considering his small-school roots, it took Kraft a while to find his footing. His all-around skill-set should be an asset for at least the next few years.

3. This Season Is a Success

Maybe the Packers will make the playoffs. Maybe they won’t. Whatever.

By beating the Lions, Green Bay is 5-6. It’s one game behind Minnesota and Seattle, which control the last two spots in the NFC playoff race.

Meaningful football games will be played in December, which wasn’t guaranteed when the Packers had dropped four in a row to fall to 2-5.

The Packers’ offense is incredibly young. The only way to grow is to play, obviously. But the better way to grow is to play in big games. There are a lot of big games coming, starting with Sunday night against the defending Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs. After that, they’ll probably be favored in four of the final five games.

Green Bay is called Titletown for a reason. Championships are the expectation. They should be the expectation. Playing a string of big games will accelerate this team into this new era.

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