Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Cowboys in Wild-Card Game

The Dallas Cowboys are heavy favorites to beat the Green Bay Packers in a wild-card playoff game on Sunday. Here is why the Packers will pull off the big upset.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers stormed into the playoffs by winning three consecutive games, but they haven’t played anyone like the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys finished 12-5, including 8-0 at home. They finished first in scoring, including 37.4 points in home games. They’ve got an MVP candidate at quarterback with Dak Prescott, the NFL’s leading receiver in CeeDee Lamb and a game-wrecking defender in Micah Parsons.

As seven-point underdogs at FanDuel Sportsbook (it opened at eight), there are plenty of reasons why the Packers will lose.

Here are three reasons why they’ll win.

1. Gotta Love a Cool Quarterback

Jordan Love will be making his playoff debut. He’s on one of those Aaron Rodgers-esque rolls with 18 touchdowns vs. one interception over the final eight games. In three must-win games to end the regular season, Love delivered seven touchdown passes (plus two touchdown runs), zero interceptions and almost 800 passing yards.

Love was unflappable after Rodgers was traded. He was calm for his debut game at Chicago. He kept his cool when the Packers lost four consecutive games early in the season and two in a row in December. He was a stone-cold assassin in the madness of Minnesota’s U.S. Bank Stadium.

There’s no reason to expect anything different when he steps to the line of scrimmage for the first time on Sunday.

“I’ll be the same,” Love said. “Every game, I got through a checklist of what I tell myself, things to try to tell myself to relax, calm down, see the game, let it come to me and just focus on all the little details that I can focus on, control what I can control. So, I don’t think it will be any different than any other game. Obviously, it will be an away game, it will be a loud environment. So, just trying to get my feet and get settled into the game will be huge.”

Especially early in Brett Favre’s career, then-coach Mike Holmgren had to get his excitable future MVP settled into games. That won’t be necessary for coach Matt LaFleur. With Love and his multitude of young, talented and underrated weapons, expect Love to be unleashed against a Cowboys defense that finished fifth in completion percentage and yards, sixth in passer rating, eighth in interceptions and ninth in yards per attempt.

“Jordan’s a pretty even-keeled guy but, on gameday, he’s still pretty chill, but you can see the fire in his eyes, which is pretty cool,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “But starting off a game, you always want to get the quarterback going, get him some completions, make him feel good, and then you can see what happens.”

2. No. 11 is No. 1 Receiver

Last week, Bears safety Jaquan Brisker made headlines when he essentially called the Packers’ receivers a bunch of nobodies. Just because the Packers have “no stars” at receiver now doesn’t mean they don’t have future stars.

Jayden Reed might be that player.

A second-round pick, Reed has been sensational. He smashed Sterling Sharpe’s franchise rookie record with 64 catches. In the process, he became the first rookie in NFL history with at least 60 receptions, 750 receiving yards, eight receiving touchdowns, 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.

Among this year’s rookies, Reed ranked sixth in receptions, fifth with 793 receiving yards and second with eight touchdowns. Among rookies who were targeted at least 25 times, he was fourth in catch percentage (71.1) and yards per route (2.04), according to Pro Football Focus.

Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Cowboys

Reed could be the big mismatch for Jordan Love on Sunday.

Among all receivers, Reed in the slot ranked seventh with 44 receptions, third with 653 yards and second with seven touchdowns.

“He can do it all,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “You can put him anywhere. He’s just a baller, and you want to get the ball in his hands however you can, and we’ve got a lot of them.”

The Cowboys have two excellent corners with All-Pro DaRon Bland, the NFL leader in interceptions and pick-sixes, and veteran Stephon Gilmore.

However, of 32 defensive backs to play at least 200 snaps of slot coverage, the Cowboys’ Jourdan Lewis ranked 25th with 1.33 yards per coverage snaps, according PFF. He allowed four touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 69.8 percent completion rate, good for a 115.0 passer rating.

3. Dominant Red Zone

The Cowboys have advantages all over the field. But not in the red zone.

Green Bay on offense finished 19th in the red zone (51.6 percent touchdowns) but No. 1 in goal-to-go situations (95.0 percent touchdowns, which might be the best in NFL history). Dallas on defense wound up 20th in the red zone (56.3 percent) and 27th in the red zone (80.0 percent).

During the second half of the season, Jordan Love threw 14 touchdowns (behind only Dak Prescott’s 15) with zero interceptions. Those touchdowns were spread between eight players, led by Christian Watson’s four.

Dallas on offense ranked 14th in the red zone (56.3 percent) and 26th in goal-to-go (64.1 percent). Green Bay on defense ranked ninth in the red zone (50.9 percent) and 13th in goal-to-go (70.4 percent).

The Packers finished second with eight red-zone sacks, led by Kenny Clark’s three.

In the final two games of the regular season, Minnesota and Chicago went a combined 1-of-5 in the red zone. Repeating that success will be absolutely vital. It’s a given the Cowboys are going to move the ball. Can the Packers limit the damage to field goals?

“We’re comfortable in what we’re doing and guys are simply making plays,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “When teams throw the ball, you can have a great rush but if there’s a hole in the coverage, there’s an issue, and vice-versa. Down there, we’ve played very complementary with each other. The rush and coverage has complemented each other very well, and it’s obviously paid off.”

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