Three Weeks Until Packers at Vikings

In exactly three weeks, the Green Bay Packers will kick off the 2022 NFL season with an NFC North showdown against the rival Minnesota Vikings.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Exactly three weeks from today, the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will kick off the 2022 NFL season with the 125th matchup in the history of their border battle.

At SI Sportsbook, Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite with a 48.5-point total. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers are 2-point favorites; 53 percent of the money and 57 percent of the bets are on the Vikings.

Two of the offensive stars, Packers running back Aaron Jones and Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, will figure prominently in this early NFC North showdown. Over the last two seasons, Jones has averaged 66.0 rushing yards per game. According to Inside Edge, the Packers went 15-0 when Jones eclipsed that mark. Meanwhile, since entering the NFL in 2021, Jefferson has averaged 91.0 receiving yards per game. When he’s been held below that figure, the Vikings were just 6-13.

A big side note to the matchup will be Za’Darius Smith lining up to face his former team. In 2019 and 2020, Smith recorded 26 sacks, but he barely played last season due to a back injury that required surgery. The Packers released him to help get beneath the salary cap, and Smith signed with the Vikings.

“I can’t wait to get a chance to face [the Packers] in the first game and see that look on Aaron Rodgers’ face when he sees me on the other side of the ball,” Smith told The Rich Eisen Show in May.

With the help of Will Ragatz of Inside the Vikings, here’s a look at the teams through the first week of the preseason.

Packers Strength

For years, this would have been a no-brainer answer. Aaron Rodgers. Period. Not anymore. While Rodgers scoffs at the notion, this will be a defense-driven team to start the season. There is not a single weakness in the starting defensive lineup. Defensive tackle Kenny Clark, inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and cornerback Jaire Alexanders have Pro Bowls/All-Pros on their resumes, and outside linebacker Rashan Gary is a budding star. The cornerback trio of Alexander, Eric Stokes and Rasul Douglas is as good as it gets, and first-round pick Quay Walker looks like a stud in a linebacker pairing with Campbell.

Vikings Strength

With all due respect to their starting offensive tackles and edge rushers, the Vikings' biggest strength is their skill position talent. There are only a handful of teams in the league — the Bengals and Raiders among them — who can compete with the star power and depth Minnesota has at receiver, running back, and tight end. It starts with superstar third-year wideout Justin Jefferson, who is the odds-on favorite to lead the league in receiving yards. Whenever healthy, Dalvin Cook is one of the most dangerous running backs in the league. Adam Thielen is still an elite red zone threat; only Davante Adams and Mike Evans have more touchdown receptions over the last two years than Thielen's 24. Toss in K.J. Osborn, Irv Smith Jr., Alexander Mattison and a few other young players, and the Vikings have an incredible array of weapons at Kirk Cousins' disposal.

Packers Weakness

Let’s assume left tackle David Bakhtiari successfully makes it back on the field and returns to form following a third procedure on his left knee. He missed almost all last season and came off PUP on Sunday. So, perhaps Aaron Rodgers will have to find an open receiver, but will one get open? The trade of Davante Adams to the Raiders left Rodgers without a proven No. 1 threat for the first time in his career. When push comes to shove in a big moment against a really good defense, will anyone from the group of Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb or rookies Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson be able to create separation and big plays?

Vikings Weakness

If I were to focus on one player, it would be center Garrett Bradbury. More broadly, it's the cornerback position. The Vikings' No. 1 corner is 32-year-old Patrick Peterson (pictured), who has lost several steps since his peak days in Arizona. Peterson's intelligence, instincts, and veteran savvy make him a solid player, but he's definitely susceptible to being beaten by speed. Also likely to start on the outside in Week 1 is Cameron Dantzler, a third-year player who has been quite inconsistent to start his Vikings career. Dantzler has ended up on the wrong end of far too many highlight plays in big moments since coming into the league. Rookie corner Andrew Booth Jr. has a ways to go in his development and starting nickel Chandon Sullivan is merely solid.

Packers Question

For all the focus on the receiver corps, it’s the possibility the offensive line that’s a hot mess. Bakhtiari was on a Hall of Fame trajectory before suffering a torn ACL on Dec. 31, 2020. He played in one game last season and the Packers are crossing their fingers and toes as he tries to make another comeback. Elgton Jenkins, a Pro Bowl guard in 2020 who capably replaced Bakhtiari last year, returned last week following his own ACL injury. Presuming they’re healthy, Green Bay’s line could be really good. But as Bakhtiari’s odyssey demonstrated last year, who knows? And if things to haywire, what could go wrong with Yosh Nijman and Royce Newman blocking Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith?

Vikings Question

Can Kevin O'Connell hit the ground running as a play caller and head coach? O'Connell doesn't have much experience calling plays in the NFL, as Sean McVay handles those duties for the Rams. The Vikings need him to operate at a high level in that regard right away, because the Packers' defense is going to present a massive challenge. There's a lot of pressure on Kirk Cousins to get the ball to his playmakers and win games at a high rate, something he's only done once in his career (2019). But Cousins is also somewhat of a known commodity as a QB. It's up to O'Connell to put Cousins in positions to succeed, call the right plays, and manage games effectively. That's a lot on the shoulders of a first-time head coach.

Vikings Flavor in Green Bay

No team loves ex-Packers more than the Vikings. The one former Vikings player on the roster, kicker Gabe Brkic, was released last week after a horrendous camp in place of injured Mason Crosby. However, during this year’s NFL Draft, general manager Brian Gutekunst sent his two second-round picks to Minnesota to rocket up to No. 34 overall to select receiver Christian Watson. Watson has an elite combination of height and speed. Once he’s full-go following a minor knee operation, the Packers are counting on him to join Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams in the team’s pantheon of great second-round receivers.

Packers Flavor in Minnesota

Like Bill mentioned, there are a bunch of revenge game storylines for the Vikings heading into this one. Za'Darius Smith and Chandon Sullivan will be playing against their former team for the first time, and Minnesota will be counting on both to play well. You know Smith is salivating at the opportunity to sack Aaron Rodgers and celebrate with his new best friend Danielle Hunter in front of a raucous U.S. Bank Stadium crowd. It's not just those two players, either. Vikings OLB coach Mike Smith and assistant head coach Mike Pettine are both former Packers coaches who would love to help stymie Rodgers to open the season.

Packers Will Win Because …

Green Bay’s passing game might not be great as it transitions away from Davante Adams, but the Vikings’ secondary might not be very good, either. A high-quality running game should prevent too many third-and-longs – situations that will play into the hands of Minnesota’s pass rush. Meanwhile, the power of Green Bay’s defensive front is going to be hard to handle for any team. The additions of defensive tackle Jarran Reed and first-round linebacker Quay Walker could help bottle up Dalvin Cook, and Rashan Gary, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark should challenge Kirk Cousins’ ability to create too many big plays with premier receiver Justin Jefferson.

Vikings Will Win Because …

They have the talent to put up points on any defense in the NFL, even a great one like Green Bay's. The ideal scenario is that the Vikings feed off the energy in their home stadium and ride Jefferson and Cook to an early lead. From there, Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter can pin their ears back and go after Rodgers. The Packers' lack of talent at receiver makes the Vikings' weakness at cornerback less important, and the Vikings have the players in the front seven — in addition to the edge rushers, they've got great DTs (Dalvin Tomlinson and Harrison Phillips) and ILBs (Eric Kendricks and Jordan Hicks) — to slow down Green Bay's dangerous Aaron Jones-A.J. Dillon RB duo. Plus, if it comes down to a kick or two, Greg Joseph has had an incredible training camp.