Which Outside Linebackers Might Be Off Packers’ NFL Draft Board?

With an excellent starting tandem but questionable depth, the Green Bay Packers will tap into a deep group of edge rushers. What does the testing history say?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – In 2019, Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst signed Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith in free agency, then drafted Rashan Gary with the 12th overall pick.

Heading into the 2022 NFL Draft, the Packers’ starting tandem of Gary and Preston Smith is really good. The projected backups, Jonathan Garvin and Tipa Galeai, are really questionable. Thus, it’s a good bet that Gutekunst will use a premium draft pick on an outside linebacker in this month’s 2022 NFL Draft.

A tremendous class filled with athletic, productive prospects awaits.

Since the defense switched to the 3-4 in 2009, the Packers have selected 11 outside linebackers: Clay Matthews and Brad Jones in 2009, Ricky Elmore in 2011, Nick Perry in 2012, Nate Palmer in 2013, Carl Bradford in 2014, Kyler Fackrell in 2016, Vince Biegel in 2017, Kendall Donnerson in 2018, Rashan Gary in 2019 and Jonathan Garvin in 2020.

Elmore ran by far the slowest 40 time in a woeful 4.95 seconds. The next-slowest was Garvin in 4.82, a time that practically matches the historic Scouting Combine average of 4.813. Eight of the 11 draft picks beat the average by at least one-tenth of a second. Za’Darius Smith ran a 4.73 and Preston Smith a 4.74.

Perry ran by far the slowest 20-yard shuttle in 4.66 seconds. At 271 pounds, his 4.64 in the 40 and superior strength proved the more decisive measurements. The historic Combine average is 4.42 seconds. Everybody else beat that number handily – Palmer and Donnerson were the next-slowest at 4.37. Elmore probably got drafted on the strength of his 4.32. How about the former Smith Bros.? Za’Darius Smith was slow (4.66) and Preston Smith was fast (4.28).

The historic Combine average for the three-cone drill of 7.24 seconds has been irrelevant to an extent. Of the nine with times (Garvin and Biegel the exceptions), five were just over that time. Kyler Fackrell’s 7.34 was the slowest. Again, Za’Darius Smith was slow (7.42) and Preston Smith was fast (7.07).

The Packers have drafted short players (Bradford was 6-foot 3/4) and tall players (Fackrell was 6-foot-5). They’ve drafted big players (Gary was 277 and Perry 271) and not-so-big players (Donnerson was 250, Biegel was 246 and Fackrell was 245).

The depth chart at this time a year ago was dominated by Za’Darius Smith (272 pounds), Preston Smith (265) and Gary (277), but Tipa Galeai (229) and Randy Ramsey (238) were on the opposite side of the spectrum. The Smith-Smith-Gary trio hints that they prefer bigger guys. However, it’s worth noting 240-pound Leonard Floyd thrived with the Rams in 2020, when Joe Barry was linebackers coach, and there’s a new position coach, with Mike Smith replaced by Jason Rebrovich.

In Relative Athletic Score, a 0-to-10 scale that compares players’ size/speed numbers, Gary (9.95), Preston Smith (9.80), Donnerson (9.39), Perry (9.38), Matthews (9.31) and even Garvin (8.98) were studs. Elmore (5.11) was the only sub-7.0 of the drafted players. Za’Darius Smith scored just a 3.73.

What does it mean? It would appear the 40 is really the only make-or-break individual drill. Inching up just a tick from Garvin’s number, these players were slower than 4.85: Utah’s Mike Tafua (4.94), Penn State’s Jesse Luketa (4.89), Houston’s Logan Hall (4.88 but at 283 pounds as a potential lineman/outside linebacker), South Carolina’s Kingsley Enagbare (4.87) and Ohio State’s Tyreke Smith (4.86).

Using a RAS of 7.0 only knocks off Luketa (5.60), Enagbare (6.17) and Hall (6.70 as a defensive end but 9.40 as a defensive tackle, so probably not relevant) as the real draft-worthy players. Most of the draft’s studs amplified their standing during the testing phase. It’s no wonder why edge defender is considered the best group of in this year’s draft.

Green Bay Packers 2022 Strength of Schedule

Here is a look at next season’s opponents, with projected win totals at FanDuel in parentheses. The dates and times for the games will be announced in the spring; the 2021 schedule was announced on May 12. Teams with an asterisk qualified for the playoffs.

Note: Green Bay will play one of its home games in London.

Home: NFC North

Chicago Bears (7), Detroit Lions (6.5), Minnesota Vikings (8.5).

Home: NFC East

Dallas Cowboys* (10.5), New York Giants (7.5).

Home: AFC East

New England Patriots* (8.5), New York Jets (5.5).

Home: NFC West (Champion)

Los Angeles Rams* (10.5).

Home: AFC South (Champion for Game 17)

Tennessee Titans* (9.5).

Away: NFC North

Chicago Bears (7), Detroit Lions (6.5), Minnesota Vikings (8.5).

Away: NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles* (8.5), Washington Football Team (8.5).

Away: AFC East

Buffalo Bills* (11.5), Miami Dolphins (8.5).

Away: NFC South (Champion)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers* (11.5).