Will Brady’s Retirement Convince Rodgers to Return?

You can’t win the Super Bowl without getting to the Super Bowl. The path for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in the NFC just got easier without Tom Brady leading the Buccaneers.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – With the legendary Tom Brady officially retiring on Tuesday, the non-Super Bowl focus will turn to the future of NFL’s other living-legend quarterback, Green Bay Packers star Aaron Rodgers.

Will Rodgers return for another season or join Brady and former Steelers great Ben Roethlisberger as part of the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2027? If Rodgers does choose to return, will he want to play an 18th season in Green Bay or somewhere else that he deems to have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl?

A competitor would never back down from a challenge. It’s nonsense to believe Rodgers wouldn’t request a trade to Denver to join new Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett just because the AFC West also is home to the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert. That’s just not how competitors think.

That being said, Rodgers is a smart guy. You can’t win the Super Bowl without getting to the Super Bowl. And the path is much easier in the NFC, especially without Brady’s seven championship rings standing in the way.

The AFC is in the early stages of a golden era of quarterbacking that’s going to carry the league through the rest of this decade and beyond.

Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow is 25. In his second season, he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl by beating Mahomes in overtime in the AFC Championship Game. He finished this season sixth in passing yards and eighth in touchdowns.

Kansas City’s Mahomes is 26. He guided the Chiefs to a fourth consecutive AFC Championship Game. Even in a down season by his standards, he finished fourth in yards and fourth in touchdowns.

Mahomes beat Buffalo’s Josh Allen in an epic duel in the divisional round. The 25-year-old Allen finished eighth in yards and seventh in touchdowns, and is perhaps the league’s best dual-threat quarterback.

Herbert, who finished second in passing yards and third in touchdowns, is 26.

Those four players are the future faces of the NFL.

Meanwhile, the 44-year-old Brady might not be going out on top as a champion but he’s going out on top by performance. He led the NFL with 5,316 passing yards and 43 touchdowns. The term GOAT needs to be retired because it’s hard to believe anyone will ever match Brady’s greatest-of-all-time accomplishments.

In regular-season play, Brady ranks No. 1 in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Rodgers is now the active leader in touchdown passes – merely 175 behind Brady. In the playoffs, Brady’s record is 35-12. Winning 74.5 percent of your starts would be a great season. Brady won 74.5 percent of his playoff starts. He won more playoff games than all but New England (he was responsible for most of the Patriots’ 37 postseason wins), Green Bay (36) and Pittsburgh (36).

While the AFC is loaded with up-and-coming passers, this is the new state of the NFC at the game’s most important position:

NFC Final Four: L.A. Rams (Matthew Stafford), San Francisco (presumably Tre Lance will replace Jimmy Garoppolo), Green Bay (Rodgers?) and Tampa Bay (Blaine Gabbert is No. 2 on the depth chart)). Other NFC playoff teams: Dallas (Dak Prescott), Arizona (Kyler Murray) and Philadelphia (Jalen Hurts). Also of note: New Orleans (Jameis Winston), Minnesota (Kirk Cousins), Seattle (Russell Wilson) and Chicago (Justin Fields).

Stafford, who will turn 34 next week, is a great quarterback with a penchant for making mistakes. The last part of that sentence would have been the story from Sunday’s NFC Championship Game had 49ers safety Jacquiski Tartt not dropped the easiest interception of his life. Prescott and Cousins have put up great numbers but haven’t won anything. Murray was the MVP of the first half of the season but crumbled down the stretch. Wilson seems to be fading. Who knows about Hurts and Fields at this stage of their careers.

Because of the salary cap, Green Bay’s window of championship opportunity might be closing. With Brady’s retirement, that window has reopened just a bit so long as Rodgers returns. Perhaps Rodgers’ improved relationship with general manager Brian Gutekunst already had him set to return for Season 15 as the starter. If not, perhaps Brady’s retirement will have Rodgers considering how his chances of winning that elusive second NFL title just got much better.

Tom Brady vs. the Packers

Nov. 19, 2006: Patriots 35, Packers 0

Tom Brady threw four touchdown passes while Brett Favre completed only five passes before exiting with an injured elbow. Aaron Rodgers replaced Favre and went 4-of-12 for 32 yards before exiting with a broken foot that ended his season.

“When you can count the number of first downs on one hand, it’s embarrassing,” center Scott Wells said.

Dec. 19, 2010: Patriots 31, Packers 27

With Aaron Rodgers out with a concussion sustained the week prior at Detroit, Matt Flynn went toe to toe with Tom Brady. Flynn was excellent, throwing for 251 yards and three touchdowns, and the Packers outgained the Patriots 369-249. How did Green Bay lose? Lineman Dan Connolly returned a kickoff 71 yards to set up a touchdown late in the first half, Flynn threw a pick-six to start the second half and Flynn fumbled on the Patriots’ 15 on the final play.

“I don't care what you guys think. We came here to win. We’re nobody’s underdog,” coach Mike McCarthy famously said afterward. His team would not lose the rest of the season en route to winning the Super Bowl.

Nov. 30, 2014: Packers 26, Patriots 21

Aaron Rodgers threw for 368 yards and two touchdowns as the Packers held off Tom Brady in what seemed like a potential Super Bowl preview. Brady had the Patriots on the doorstep of winning but Ha Ha Clinton-Dix broke up a pass near the goal line to Rob Gronkowski and Mike Daniels and Mike Neal combined to sack Brady on third down. A Rodgers-to-Randall Cobb completion on third-and-4 iced the game.

“We have some big goals, and we’re getting into December football now with a chance with everything right in front of us,” Rodgers said.

Nov. 4, 2018: Patriots 31, Packers 17

Aaron Rodgers threw game-tying touchdowns to Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham but the Patriots dominated the fourth quarter. Aaron Jones fumbled, and James White’s 1-yard touchdown made it 24-17. After the Packers went three-and-out, Tom Brady hit Josh Gordon for a 55-yard touchdown. Brady threw for 294 yards and one score.

“He’s been the gold standard at quarterback for two decades,” Rodgers said.

Oct. 18, 2020: Buccaneers 38, Packers 10

Green Bay bolted to a 10-0 lead and had the ball again when Aaron Rodgers threw an interception that Jamel Dean returned 32 yards for a touchdown. One play changed everything as the Buccaneers won in a rout. Rodgers had a 35.4 passer rating in one of the worst days of his career while Tom Brady threw two touchdown passes.

“That sh** happens,” Rodgers said of just the third pick-six of his career. “I haven’t had a lot of those over the years. But the wind was blowing pretty good right to left. I felt good about the spot. I knew it was tight, we’ve hit throws like that, but I missed on my spot by probably a foot or so. And the kid made a good play.”

Jan. 4, 2021 (NFC Championship): Buccaneers 31, Packers 26

Aaron Rodgers threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns. Tom Brady threw interceptions on three consecutive possessions in the second half. None of it mattered, though. In an empty Lambeau Field, it was Brady celebrating an NFC Championship Game victory and yet another trip to the Super Bowl. And it was Rodgers contemplating his future.

“I don’t know, I really don’t,” Rodgers said. “There’s a lot of unknowns going into this offseason now. I’m going to have to take some time away, for sure, and clear my head and just kind of see what’s going on with everything. But it’s pretty tough right now, especially thinking about the guys that may or may not be here next year. There’s always change. That’s the only constant in this business. It’s really tough to get to this point. Really, really tough, especially with there being only one bye week in the playoffs. It’s a grind just to get to this point. And that makes the finality of it all kind of hit you like a ton of bricks. That’s why it’s a gutting feeling in your stomach. Ugh.”