With AJ Dillon’s Uncertain Future, Packers Need Power Back
GREEN BAY, Wis. – For the past three years, the Green Bay Packers’ running game has been driven by the explosive Aaron Jones and the powerful AJ Dillon.
The hulking Dillon is headed to free agency and faces a murky future with the team. A second-round pick in 2020, he has been an effective and reliable counterpuncher to Jones and an asset in the locker room and community. On the other hand, he’s coming off the worst season of his career and was unable to carry the load through Jones’ injuries.
“AJ’s been a great member of our team,” coach Matt LaFleur said at the end of the season. “Certainly, I think you’ve got to have multiple backs in this league. You have to. It’s just the pounding these guys take. I think you could really see his value every year towards the end of the season. I told him, shoot, I’d love to have him back here.”
Whether that happens could come down to finances and, if the Packers are comfortable playing the waiting game, what happens in the 2024 NFL Draft.
With muscle on top of muscle, the Packers were hoping they’d be getting at least a poor-man’s version of Titans star Derrick Henry. However, after averaging 5.20 yards per carry, including 3.44 yards after contact, with a missed-tackle rate of 30.9 percent in limited action as a rookie, here are Dillon’s annual numbers via the official stats, Pro Football Focus and Pro Football Reference.
2021: 4.27 yards per carry, 3.14 yards after contact, 16.0 percent missed-tackle rate, 61.0 percent success rate (4-plus yards on first down, at least half the required yards on second down, all the required yards on third or fourth down).
2022: 4.16 yards per carry, 2.90 yards after contact, 12.4 percent missed-tackle rate, 56.6 percent success rate.
2023: 3.44 yards per carry, 2.69 yards after contact, 11.8 percent missed tackle rate, 50.0 percent success rate.
In 2020, Dillon forced 17 missed tackles with 55 carries. In 2023, he had 178 carries and 21 missed tackles. That’s four more missed tackles on 123 more carries.
When Jones had at least 15 carries, the Packers were 5-1 (including playoffs). He was the driving force behind the playoff charge with his franchise-record five consecutive games of 100-plus rushing yards. When Dillon had 15-plus carries, the Packers went 1-4. When he had 50-plus rushing yards, the team went 1-5.
With that, it’s little wonder why Jones – despite his advanced age and hefty salary – almost certainly will be back while Dillon’s future is up in the air.
Whether it’s Dillon, a rookie or a combination of both, someone will have to be the backup to Jones. While Jones has stayed relatively healthy – from 2019 through 2022, he missed four of a possible 66 games – age and last year’s hamstring and knee injuries can’t be ignored. The team will need a quality backup.
What is general manager Brian Gutekunst’s preference? Using extremes as examples, is it a bigger back like the 6-foot, 247-pound Dillon or could he go with a player stylistically similar to the 5-foot-9, 208-pound Jones?
“I like guys that are all well-rounded and can do everything,” Gutekunst said at the Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. “That’s not always the case, but I do think we would always like to have one power, bigger back on the roster for short-yardage situations and playing in the weather and closing out games, things like that.
“Aaron Jones is not that but, at the same time, he’s an absolute difference-maker. I don’t know if I’m necessarily tied into one thing, but I do think within the three to four backs we’re going to carry that one has to be a bigger back.”
The in-house candidates are Dillon, obviously, and Emanuel Wilson. An undrafted rookie, he is listed at 5-foot-11 and 226 pounds.
In the draft, Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen (6-2, 245), Florida State’s Trey Benson (6-1, 223) and Notre Dame’s Audric Estime (5-11, 227) would be mid-round options in that power-back mold.
