World’s Best Preview Two-Minute Drill: Chargers Show Why Packers Must Capitalize on Hot Start
The Green Bay Packers are a surprising 7-1 under first-year coach Matt LaFleur entering today’s game at the Los Angeles Chargers. After a couple subpar seasons, Aaron Rodgers has emerged as the betting favorite to win MVP honors.
Now, can the Packers turn this super start into a Super Bowl finish?
This team should have some staying power. Rodgers, receiver Davante Adams, running back Aaron Jones and left tackle David Bakhtiari are premier players on offense who are under contract through at least next season. The defense has been reborn by the free-agent additions of outside linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith and safety Adrian Amos. Those three, big-time cornerback Jaire Alexander and defensive tackle Kenny Clark are under contract for next year (Clark) and beyond (the others).
The future, however, is not guaranteed. Far from it. Today’s opponent is the perfect case in point.
In 2017, first-year Chargers coach Anthony Lynn led the team to a 9-7 finish. Last year, the Chargers improved to 12-4. With veteran quarterback Philip Rivers and several elite players on both sides of the ball, they entered this season as a preseason Super Bowl favorite. Instead, they’re 3-5 on the season, with one foot in a grave and the other foot on a banana peel.
Close games tell the story. Last year, the Packers dropped five consecutive games decided by seven points or less after the bye to fall out of the race. This year, they’re 4-1. The Chargers were 5-1 last season but 2-5 this season.
“I think the mentality can change for sure,” Rodgers said. “It can go from a ‘Here we go again’ mindset to a ‘We’re going to find a way’ mind-set. I think that’s what we’re starting to develop, a comfort with winning and an understanding of what it takes. Matt talks a lot about not blinking in the face of adversity and pushing through tough situations. I think that’s what we’ve done really well so far, is deal with those adverse moments and respond consistently. I think the mindset for the guys is a very confident one and not ‘I hope we win’ or ‘How are we going to win and who’s going to be the guy to step up and make a big play so that we leave here with a win?’”
Rodgers will turn 36 in exactly one month. While this team seems poised to win this year and beyond, there needs to be a sense of urgency to take advantage of this opportunity.
No longer a third-rate third-down attack: Through the first six weeks of the season, the Packers ranked 27th in the NFL with a 31.0 percent conversion rate on third down. Rodgers had completed 57.4 percent of his passes with one touchdown, one interception and an 80.1 passer rating.
It’s been a different story in two big-time offensive performances against the Raiders and Chiefs. Green Bay is No. 1 in the league with a 60.9 percent conversion rate. Rodgers has completed 80.0 percent of his passes with two touchdowns, zero interceptions and a max passer rating of 158.3. His yards per attempt has swelled from 7.3 to 14.3.
One key: Green Bay has gone from an average third down requiring 8.5 yards (the fourth-longest) to 6.5 yards (the sixth-shortest). They’ve been better on third-and-long, too, such as the third-and-10 completion to tight end Jimmy Graham that helped the Packers tie the game to start the third quarter.
“I think we’ve been staying out of third and extra-long, which has helped,” Rodgers said. “We’ve had a lot more manageable ones. The first third down (against Kansas City), it was a third-and-3 we converted (to Marquez Valdes-Scantling) and kind of got going. We’ve done a good job of making clutch plays, too.”
Meanwhile, third down might be the worst part of the Chargers’ defense. Despite the big-time pass-rushing tandem of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, and a pair of superb defensive backs in Casey Hayward and Desmond King, the Chargers are allowing a 30th-ranked conversion rate of 47.8 percent.
“We’ve got some young players on the field because of the injuries and we’ve made some mistakes in third-and-long situations,” Lynn said. “Those are areas and times when we’ve normally gotten people off the field, but mistakes have allowed teams to extend drives and stay on the field longer. Our plan is very solid and as these young players gain more experience and get more reps, that’s going to change.”
Strength of schedule: The Packers’ final eight games are at the Chargers, home against Carolina (4-3), a bye week, at San Francisco (7-0) and the New York Giants (2-6), home against Washington (1-7) and Chicago (3-4), and at Minnesota (6-2) and Detroit (3-3-1). Combined, the record of those teams is 29-30-1, a winning percentage of .492.
If the race for home-field advantage truly is down to San Francisco (8-0), New Orleans (7-1), Green Bay (7-1), Minnesota (6-2) and Seattle (6-2), here is how it shakes out.
Starting with the Packers, the Chargers have a challenging final stretch with four games against teams with winning records. Their final opponents have a combined record of 35-27 for a .565 winning percentage that is among the toughest for the AFC contenders.
Feet and hands: Last week, we pointed out the Packers’ exceptional – and exceptionally rare – passing-game production from the running backs. On Sunday, Aaron Jones put an exclamation mark on that story with seven receptions for 159 yards and two touchdowns.
Entering this week’s games, the Packers are No. 3 in the NFL in running back receptions (63), No. 3 in receiving yards (594) and tied for No. 1 with seven receiving touchdowns. Led by Austin Ekeler, who has 51 receptions, the Chargers are tied for No. 1 with 73 receptions, No. 2 with 603 yards and tied for No. 1 with seven receiving touchdowns.
“When you can get a guy like Aaron Jones, an Austin Ekeler, in a favorable matchup on a linebacker, that becomes the best matchup on the field, even when you have an elite guy like Keenan Allen,” Lynn said.
Casey at the bat: As a rookie second-round pick by the Packers in 2012, cornerback Casey Hayward ranked among the league leaders with six interceptions and 20 passes defensed. During his next three years combined, Hayward had just three interceptions and 14 passes defensed.
The Packers let him sign with the Chargers in 2016, and he posted a league-leading seven interceptions along with 20 passes defensed. In 2017, he had four interceptions and 22 passes defensed.
After going without a pick last year, Hayward is at it again. He had an interception last week against Chicago to give him two on the season. Since joining the Chargers in 2016, he’s fourth in the league with 13 interceptions.
“Yeah, I think he's better,” Rodgers said of the Hayward of today compared to the Hayward of yesteryear. “I always really enjoyed going against him in practice. He was a great teammate, a great locker room guy. Was sincerely surprised when we didn't offer him a contract to bring him back, but he made himself into an All-Pro corner with just some more opportunities. When he was with us, he was playing primarily in the slot, and he's figured out how to play really, really well outside – and predominantly outside now – in their scheme. He's got great ball skills, he's a heady player, he's a savvy vet, and you have to be very wary if you want to throw it outside.”
History lesson: The Packers lead the series 10-1. That’s not only the most lopsided in Packers history but one of the most lopsided in NFL history. Among matchups played at least 10 times, only Philadelphia’s 11-0 mark against the Jets is better.
Green Bay has won seven straight, with the last three being decided by exactly seven points. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has averaged 398 passing yards in those games.
Running to nowhere: Chargers running back Melvin Gordon didn’t play in the first four games due to a holdout. Not only did Gordon not get what he wanted but the Chargers haven’t gotten what they’ve wanted.
Almost unbelievably, Los Angeles is averaging just 35.5 rushing yards per game and 2.25 rushing yards per attempt the last four weeks. The Chargers have failed to reach 40 rushing yards in those games, a dubious first since the 1947 Lions. And that’s with Gordon’s 19-yard touchdown run last week at Chicago. In his four games back with the team, he’s rushed 44 times for 112 yards – a 2.5-yard average that is less than half of last year’s 5.1 mark.
“I’ve seen him get better every week,” Lynn said. “I thought last week you definitely saw some flashes of old Melvin. He didn’t get many opportunities, but you could just tell, he was a little different last week, and that’s what I was expecting to see, but I need to see more of it.”
Gordon, a native of Kenosha who starred at Wisconsin, had 40 touchdowns since the start of the 2016 season. Only Todd Gurley (53) has found the end zone more often. Halfway through his fifth season, he’s rushed for 3,740 yards in his career.
Beat-up Bolts: While it’s possible LaFleur won’t have any injury-related additions to today’s inactives list, the Chargers have been riddled by injuries. That’s especially true in two areas: defensive line and safety.
Starting defensive linemen Brandon Mebane and Justin Jones are doubtful, which should provide opportunities for Green Bay’s running game. Safety is a disaster, which should be inviting for Green Bay’s passing attack. Starters Derwin James and Adrian Phillips are on injured reserve, as is second-round pick Nasir Adderley are on injured reserve. Roderic Teamer, who moved into the lineup due to the injuries and has one interception, is doubtful.
