On SI’s Team Publishers Mock Draft: Packers First-Round Prediction

With plenty of talent available on the defensive line and at cornerback for the Packers, here was my thinking in our pre-Scouting Combine NFL mock draft.

Lucas Oil Stadium will host the Scouting Combine this week. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

INDIANAPOLIS – With the Green Bay Packers on the clock in the first round of the On SI NFL Team publishers mock draft, the selection was …

More on that in a moment. First, here were some of the players available with me masquerading as general manager Brian Gutekunst:

Offensive line: Texas’ Kelvin Banks, Ohio State’s Josh Simmons, North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel, Oregon’s Josh Conerly Jr.

Defensive tackle: Oregon’s Derrick Harmon, Toledo’s Darius Alexander, Ohio State’s Tyleik Williams.

Defensive end/edge: Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton, Marshall’s Mike Green, Georgia’s Mykel Williams.

Cornerbacks: Texas’ Jahdae Barron, East Carolina’s Shavon Revel, Florida State’s Azareye’h Thomas, Kentucky’s Maxwell Hairston.

Receivers: If Gutekunst was listening to running back Josh Jacobs about the need to upgrade at receiver, the prospects who could be on the board at No. 23, Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka and Texas’ Matthew Golden, were selected by the Seahawks and Chargers, respectively. So, cross receiver off the list, just like in 2020, when Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk were off the board.

If it were me, I’d take Florida State’s Thomas. The Packers have an enormous need at cornerback. Jaire Alexander isn’t expected back after another injury-plagued season and former first-round pick Eric Stokes will be joined by backups Corey Ballentine and Robert Rochell in free agency.

There are two ways to stop opponent passing games: Rush the passer or cover his receivers. The Packers did not lose their playoff game to the Eagles because of the play of Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine. They were the least of the team’s problems in a 22-10 wild-card defeat.

However, in two losses to the Lions, Jared Goff completed about 80 percent of his passes. In two losses to the Vikings, Sam Darnold completed about 75 percent of his passes with six touchdowns. That wasn’t on all Nixon and Valentine, either – Nixon was surprisingly effective at corner and Valentine had a four-game takeaway streak – but the Packers don’t have a defensive stopper to put on Justin Jefferson or Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Where the Packers did lose to the Eagles was in the trenches. Their offensive line, so efficient all season, was overwhelmed by the Eagles’ defensive front. Maybe it would have played out differently had first-round pick Jordan Morgan been healthy and available. But he wasn’t, and Green Bay’s young backups were demolished after Elgton Jenkins’ early exit.

With or without free-agent center Josh Myers, reinforcements are needed. The versatility of Zach Tom will give Gutekunst some flexibility, but Tom is a proven right tackle and right tackle is a critical position.

Defensive line is an interesting spot. The Packers’ run defense was sensational for most of the season and produced its best finish in more than a decade by allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game. The pass rush, however, was a disappointment. The firing of Jason Rebrovich as defensive line coach is a signal the team believes that coaching, not talent, was the issue.

In those aforementioned games against the Lions and Vikings, the Packers had five sacks in four games. Over the course of 18 games, Rashan Gary’s production dipped. Kenny Clark’s production fell off a cliff. Lukas Van Ness didn’t take the fabled second-year jump.

Clark’s a former first-round pick on his third contract, Gary’s a former first-round pick on his second contract, Devonte Wyatt’s a former first-round pick who could be entering his final season under contract and Van Ness is a former first-round pick who has been a disappointment.

The Eagles won the Super Bowl because of their incredible depth on the defensive line. A general manager shouldn’t overreact to one game and one season, but, as coach Matt LaFleur said after the playoff loss, “With pass rushers, you can never have enough.”

Gutekunst routinely has taken potential over production.

He did it with Gary, who had 10.5 sacks in three seasons at Michigan, including 3.5 during his final year in 2018. He did it with Wyatt, who had five sacks in four seasons at Georgia, including 2.5 during his final year in 2021. He did it with Van Ness, who had 13 sacks in two seasons coming off the bench at Iowa.

The defensive tackle class is loaded, so Gutekunst can wait a bit to potentially replace free agent TJ Slaton.

So, the pick is at defensive end/edge rusher. There isn’t a better pass rusher in the draft than Marshall’s Mike Green, but he might be a bit undersized for Green Bay’s defense. Partially because so many of the games are played in inclement weather and on iffy fields, powerful pass rushers have always been valued more than speed rushers.

Gary was big and filled with potential. Van Ness was big and filled with potential.

So is Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart.

Stewart is big. He almost certainly will put on an athletic show at the Scouting Combine.

He is 100 percent potential because he had just 1.5 sacks in each of his three seasons at Texas A&M. With 4.5 sacks for his career, Gary and Van Ness were practically Reggie White by comparison. But Stewart had a big week at the Senior Bowl, and Gutekunst loves the Senior Bowl. 

Great players win games. Stewart has a chance to be great. He’s exactly the type of player Gutekunst has a tendency to pick in the first round.

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