Packers-49ers Matchups: Who Has Advantage?

The Green Bay Packers will welcome the rival San Francisco 49ers to Lambeau Field on Sunday for a game filled with playoff ramifications. Here is a look at the matchups.

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey scores a touchdown against the Packers during last year's playoffs. / Dan Powers-Imagn Images

The Green Bay Packers survived and advanced to 7-3 with Sunday’s 20-19 win over the Chicago Bears.

No, it was not the most aesthetically pleasing game against an inferior opponent, but it was a big win considering Green Bay’s placement in the NFC playoff picture.

It certainly beats that fate that awaited the San Francisco 49ers, who lost 20-17 to the Seattle Seahawks and fell into a tie for last place in the NFC West.

Perhaps the Packers will be the cure to what has ailed the 49ers. They have, of course, dominated this series, with Kyle Shanahan holding a 4-2 advantage over his former understudy, Matt LaFleur. That includes the Niners eliminating the Packers from the playoffs in 2019, 2021 and 2023.

The Packers have an opportunity to put the 49ers further from the postseason with a win on Sunday.

To do that, they’ll need to play much better than they have over the last month.

In the four games since beating Arizona 34-13 at Lambeau Field, the Packers are 3-1, but their three wins were by a total of six points.

That’ll be good enough to beat teams in the AFC South or the Bears.

A battle-tested team like the 49ers? That’s a different story.

Here is a look at this week’s Packers-49ers matchups.

Pass Offense

The beginning of any analysis that comes with the 49ers offense starts with quarterback Brock Purdy.

How good is he? Is he a byproduct of Kyle Shanahan’s system? What can he do without all the great players around him?

To some degree, the world has been able to find out the answer to that last question this season.

Elite receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who signed a hefty contract extension this offseason, is out for the season with a knee injury. Star running back Christian McCaffery, the best player on the team, has missed all but two games with calf and Achilles injuries.

Purdy been able to make the offense go, anyway. He’s completed 66 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns to eight interceptions. He is third in yards per passing attempt and his passer rating is a solid 95.9.

Without Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, one of the more underrated receivers in football, has taken the mantle as the team’s go-to guy.

Jennings, tight end George Kittle and the ever-dangerous Deebo Samuel help pace the passing offense. All three have more than 400 receiving yards. If you account for Samuel’s rushing yards, all have more than 500 yards from scrimmage.

San Francisco’s passing game is diverse, unpredictable and thrives off play-action passing.

Green Bay’s offense mirrors San Francisco’s in a lot of ways, which could give it an edge in preparation.

McCaffery has at least five catches in each of his two games back in the lineup. He’s a weapon out of the backfield that the Packers are going to have to account for.

Green Bay’s passing defense struggled without Jaire Alexander (knee) for most of Sunday. Chicago’s Caleb Williams was able to dink-and-dunk his way down the field with little resistance.

Two of Green Bay’s three sacks came on the final drive of the game, when Chicago was in a must-pass situation. Otherwise, the pass rush was as quiet as it has been for most of the season.

San Francisco’s offensive line, led by left tackle Trent Williams, who is one of the best players at his position, is much better than the unit Green Bay faced in Chicago.

Putting Purdy under pressure has been the way to knocking him off his spot.

If he’s comfortable in the pocket, he can dice up a defense.

With Green Bay’s lack of pressure, and the uncertain status of Alexander, it’s hard to give the nod to the Packers.

Advantage: 49ers

Rush Offense

This is the phase of the game where the 49ers’ bread is buttered.

Kyle Shanahan, much like his father, Mike Shanahan, has been able to churn out effective running backs from wherever he’s been able to find them.

The Denver Broncos under the elder Shanahan used to churn out a different 1,000-yard rusher every season.

The 49ers have been similar under Kyle Shanahan.

Adding Christian McCaffery to the backfield in 2022 seemed like adding another superhero to The Avengers. Last season, he led the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards, 2,023 total yards and 21 total touchdowns.

Injuries sidelined him for the first eight games of this season but, in true Shanahan fashion, the Niners’ running game has been productive. Jordan Mason, who had 464 rushing yards his first two seasons combined, has rushed for 703 yards with a 5.1-yard average this season.

Curiously, he has only three carries in the two games since McCaffrey’s return.

McCaffery was one of the big reasons the 49ers were able to send Green Bay packing last season, scoring two touchdowns. His versatile playmaking is something Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will need to account for, especially after D’Andre Swift helped the Bears run for 171 yards on Sunday.

Advantage: 49ers

Pass Defense

The end of San Francisco’s loss to the Seahawks threw a potential wrench into this matchup.

Nick Bosa, their all-world defensive end, left the game with an injury that Shanahan was evasive about in his postgame press conference.

If Bosa can go, he’s a game wrecker. He has seven sacks in 10 games and is second in the NFL with 52 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus.

Defensive tackle Maliek Collins and defensive end Leonard Floyd have 8.5 sacks between them.

San Francisco’s defense is not the dominant unit it had been under Robert Saleh or DeMeco Ryans. Those units haunted some prolific Green Bay offenses. This year, the Niners rank 15th with 22.2 points allowed per game.

However, they’re ninth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, sixth in yards per attempt, fifth in interception percentage and sixth in opponent passer rating.

The Packers are coming off a game that was a tale of two stories.

Jordan Love threw another interception, but otherwise played well against Chicago’s defense, which has been elite against opposing passers this year. Christian Watson had 150 receiving yards on four catches.

However, the Packers struggled once again in the red zone, turning the ball over once via interception and once on downs.

Perhaps the 49ers are the cure to Green Bay’s red-zone blues. They rank 23rd in red-zone defense with an opponent touchdown rate of 62.5 percent.

A secondary, which has given significant snaps to old friend Isaac Yiadom, can be had.

If Love can take care of the football, the Packers should be able to find some room to roam in the secondary.

Advantage: Packers

Rush Defense

The run defense in San Francisco is anchored by all-world linebacker Fred Warner. He leads the team with 78 tackles and has two interceptions and four forced fumbles.

He’s flanked by De’Vondre Campbell, who will be looking to have a big game in his return to Green Bay.

A former All-Pro, Campbell was vocal this offseason about his disagreement with his role, specifically during his last two years in Green Bay. Released this offseason, he is third on the team with 59 tackles.

This is a battle of strength on strength.

Josh Jacobs and Green Bay’s rush offense is fourth in the NFL behind only Philadelphia, Baltimore and Detroit. Two of those teams have a built-in advantage with a running quarterback. The other team is Detroit, which built its entire personality around its run game.

One underrated aspect of this game could be Jordan Love’s mobility.

Love looked as good as he has all season escaping the pocket and making plays with his legs, including the last two plays on offense, when Love ran for 13 yards and then finished the drive off with a quarterback sneak.

It may not seem like much, but Geno Smith just finished tormenting the 49ers with two big runs on their game-winning drive on Sunday. He finished with 29 yards on four carries, including a game-winning 13-yard scramble.

San Fracisco’s rushing defense is a top-10 unit and held Seahawks star Kenneth Walker to 54 yards on 14 carries.

There might be some ugly runs, but it’s important that Green Bay stick with its ground game to not allow San Francisco’s pass rush to tee off.

With Love’s returned mobility and the overall excellence of Jacobs, the Packers hold a slight edge.

Advantage: Packers

Special Teams

Green Bay’s special teams unit is coming off its best performance of the season.

Daniel Whelan had a punt downed inside the 5. Jayden Reed had a 16-yard return to start the winning drive. Brandon McManus made both kicks.

Nothing, however, compares to the heroics of Karl Brooks, who blocked the game-winning field goal.

In a bit of a role reversal from the last time these teams met at Lambeau Field, San Francisco’s special teams has been a disaster for most of the year.

Their coverage units rank among the worst in the league (27th in kickoff coverage, 31st in punt coverage).

Punter Mitch Wishnowsky, who has a booming leg, is on injured reserve; former Packers punter Pat O’Donnell made his debut last week. The Niners have had a punt blocked. Jake Moody has wobbled as the team’s kicker. He has missed time with injuries and is 17-of-21 on field goals. Three of the misses were two weeks ago against the Buccaneers.

Their return game has some explosive ability with Isaac Guerendo and Deebo Samuel taking reps as kickoff returners.

Overall, however, San Francisco ranks in the bottom third of the league in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA for special teams.

This is a matchup the Packers should be able to exploit. 

Advantage: Packers

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