Packers at Bears Matchups: Who Has the Advantage?

The Green Bay Packers, fresh off their bye, and the Chicago Bears, losers of three in a row, will meet on Sunday at Soldier Field. Here’s a unit-by-unit look at the matchups.

Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore celebrates after a catch against the Green Bay Packers last year. / Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

The oldest rivalry in the NFL will be renewing itself on Sunday afternoon when the Green Bay Packers head to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears.

Sort of.

It’s not much of a rivalry these days. Since he took over as Packers coach in 2019, Matt LaFleur is 10-0 against Chicago.

The Bears have changed coaches, quarterbacks and other personnel during that timeframe.

It has not mattered.

Following January’s 17-9 victory over the Bears, Chicago decided it was time to move on from Justin Fields. Armed with the top pick in April’s draft thanks to a trade the previous year with Carolina, the Bears took USC quarterback Caleb Williams, with more promises of hope and change in the future.

Perhaps that will come to fruition, but the Bears are on a downward trajectory.

They’ve lost three games in a row, beginning with an improbable loss in Washington on a Hail Mary and culminating with a 19-3 drubbing at the hands of the lowly New England Patriots at Soldier Field. Chicago had been 4-0 at home.

The Packers, conversely, will be coming off their bye week following a humbling loss of their own. The team swears things will be different in the second half of the year. A good start would be doing what they’ve always done the last five years: beat an inferior Bears team.

Here are the matchups to do just that.

Pass Offense

This was supposed to be different.

Caleb Williams was a generational prospect. The prince that was promised to save Chicago from walking through the wilderness that is quarterback purgatory, a place they’ve occupied for most of franchise history.

The Bears surrounded him with three high-profile receivers and signed a big-time running back, as well.

The results? They’ve looked like more of the same in Chicago.

Williams has struggled, completing barely 60 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. He has gone three games without a touchdown pass.

His offensive line has not done him any favors, nor has Williams’ tendency to hold onto the ball hoping to make a big play.

That bit Williams and the Bears in the rear on Sunday, with New England’s defense sacking him nine times.

The receivers that were supposed to help aid Williams in his transition from college to the pros have struggled, as well.

The team’s star veteran, D.J. Moore, has had a bout with some odd body language to go with inconsistent play. His 44.2 yards per game would be his lowest since his rookie season. He’s caught 40-of-66 targets for 398 yards. The last four games, he’s failed to reach even 35 receiving yards and hasn’t scored.

Rookie first-round pick Rome Odunze has caught 28-of-50 passes for 414 yards and one touchdown. He hasn’t scored since Week 3.

Offseason acquisition Keenan Allen has not been able to turn back the clock to be the premier receiver he was while with the Chargers.

The biggest place the Packers could make some hay is with their pass rush.

If that group starts playing better, as general manager Brian Gutekunst said they needed to after trading Preston Smith to Pittsburgh, Chicago’s offensive line can be had.

Williams has been sacked 38 times in nine games. Not only does Williams hold the ball too long, his offensive line is beat up. They played the Patriots with two backup offensive tackles; it’s unclear if starters Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones will be back for Sunday’s game. In addition, left guard Teven Jenkins left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury.

Advantage: Packers

Rush Offense

D’Andre Swift was supposed to be one of the players to help lead the way in making things easier for Caleb Williams.

Swift’s talent certainly flashed while he was in Detroit, but he took off as the lead back for the Eagles in 2023, rushing for more than 1,000 yards for the first time in his career.

Swift has been average this season, totaling 4.0 yards per carry with four touchdowns. He rushed for 129 yards (7.2 average) against Washington but 110 yards (3.4 average) the last two games.

The Bears are 24th with 108.1 rushing yards per game and 28th with 3.99 yards per carry.

Green Bay’s run defense was beaten up by Detroit before the bye week but have improved drastically over past seasons. They are 10th with 113.0 rushing yards allowed per game and seven with 4.24 yards allowed per carry.

Green Bay’s defensive line and linebackers should be healthy. Chicago’s offensive line is not.

Advantage: Packers

Pass Defense

For all the jokes that can be made about Chicago’s offense, this defense has been no joke for most of the year.

Chicago is second only to Detroit in opponent passer rating. Defensive end Montez Sweat (4.0 sacks, 13 quarterback hits) and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter (3.5 sacks, seven hits) provide the heat.

When the ball goes in the air, cornerback Jaylon Johnson is ready to take it away, leading the team with two interceptions. Fellow cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, who was the goat on the Hail Mary at Washington, has one interception and a team-high eight passes defensed. They are flanked by safety Kevin Byard, who gives the team some experience on the back end. He and his sidekick, Jaquan Brisker, have one interception apiece.

Chicago’s defense always seems like it excels at taking the ball away, and this year is no different. They have eight interceptions and eight fumble recoveries to rank seventh with 16 takeaways.

For all the fanfare that Green Bay’s offense received this offseason, they’ve struggled to get out of their own way.

Pre-snap penalties and turnovers have plagued them through the year, and that starts with Jordan Love, who entered the bye with sole possession of the league lead with 10 interceptions.

Love admitted after uncorking his second pick-six of the season in a 24-14 loss to Detroit that he’d put the ball in harm’s way too many times. He said that’d be a focus during the bye, and the Packers need it to be.

In order to beat Chicago and, more importantly, get where they want to go, Love cannot turn the ball over at this rate.

Chicago’s defense thrives on takeaways, and having one at the wrong time could be the thing that kickstarts their struggling offense.

Advantage: Bears

Rush Defense

Chicago’s run defense, which was ranked 30th in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metrics going into Sunday’s game, took a big hit with the loss of defensive tackle Andrew Billings. He was placed on injured reserve before Sunday’s game against the Patriots, and his absence was noticeable.

The Patriots ran the ball 35 times for 144 yards and started to lean on Chicago’s front as the game went along.

Green Bay’s rush offense, led by Josh Jacobs, has been excellent. The Packers are third in the NFL in rushing behind only Baltimore and Philadelphia. Both of those teams have the benefit of a running quarterback adding to their totals, which the Packers do not have.

In order to get his quarterback into a rhythm against a ball-hawking defense, coach Matt LaFleur might be wise to rely on his dynamic ground game against a defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed per carry.

Advantage: Packers

Special Teams

Chicago’s special teams may not be as scary as they were in the days of Devin Hester controlling their kick return units, but they are pretty solid.

DeAndre Carter averages 32.0 yards per kickoff return, and another 10.2 per punt return. He has not scored but he is explosive, with a 67-yard kickoff return and 38-yard punt return.

Cairo Santos is 12-of-14 on field goals, including 6-of-7 from 50-plus yards, and missed only one extra point.

Iowa sensation Tory Taylor has averaged nearly 48 yards per punt. He has a big leg and can pin teams deep in their own territory (18 inside-the-20 punts). However, opponents have returned half his punts with a 10.2-yard average.

Overall, Chicago’s special teams are solid, if unspectacular, which is about where Green Bay is this season.

Advantage: Push. 

More Green Bay Packers News 

The #Packers have thrown a lot of interceptions, dropped a lot of passes and committed a lot of holding and pre-snap penalties.

Imagine how good this offense could be if it could get out of its own way. ⬇️https://t.co/HhQpGmun85

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 12, 2024

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