Packers-Colts Matchups: Who Has the Advantage?

Here is a unit-by-unit look at Sunday’s home opener between the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts. Which units have the edge?

Jacob Westendorf | Sep 10, 2024

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) is tackled by Green Bay Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander (23) and strong safety Adrian Amos (31) in the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium in 2020. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

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Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers are licking their wounds after losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil on Friday but are thankful their entire season isn’t circling the drain.

While Jordan Love is injured and probably won’t play on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts at Lambeau Field, Love and the Packers avoided the worst-case scenario, which might have doomed their season.

Malik Willis is expected to start against the Indianapolis Colts. There will be no veteran quarterback brought in to attempt to save the day.

The Colts are licking their wounds, as well, after a 29-27 loss at home to the division rival Houston Texans. They were competitive against a team everyone thinks is a Super Bowl contender.

Here is a look at the Packers-Colts matchups.

Packers Rush Offense

This is probably the biggest matchup of the game. Even if Willis had been in Green Bay for three years, chances are the Packers would lean heavily into their run game.

By Sunday, Willis will have been with the team for almost three weeks.

It was tough sledding for Josh Jacobs during the first half. There were no holes in the early going for the Packers’ offseason acquisition at running back. However, he had gains of 32 and 22 yards during the second half.

Along with 46 yards on four carries by Emanuel Wilson – including three carries for 37 yards on a second-quarter drive that Jayden Reed capped with a 33-yard touchdown run – the Packers finished the night with 163 yards on 21 attempts. Jacobs and Wilson combined for 130 yards on 20 carries.

The Colts were clubbed over the head by Joe Mixon and the Texans. The Colts gave up a league-worst 213 rushing yards on Sunday. They are strong up the middle with defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart and linebacker Zaire Franklin, who had 167 tackles in 2022 and 179 in 2023.

The Packers’ run game will likely be a group effort. Jacobs should see a heavy workload, but Wilson will get carries and rookie MarShawn Lloyd could make his debut if fully recovered from a hamstring injury.

Reed will likely be a key player on the ground, and so will Willis.

Reality is, the Packers cannot run things conventionally with a backup quarterback. They’ll need contributions from everyone on the ground, including their quarterback, who has some ability as a runner.

If the Packers do not win this matchup, they do not have a chance.

Advantage: Packers

Packers Pass Offense

This is a matchup that is hard to predict, because who knows what to expect from Willis and Green Bay’s passing game.

Reed should be the focal point. At the risk of making Matt LaFleur want to throw up, he was Green Bay’s No. 1 receiver last week, which was a carryover from a season ago, when he led the team in receptions and yards.

Indianapolis did well at holding the Texans’ slot receiver, Tank Dell, in check, limiting him to 40 yards on just three catches. The Colts’ slot defender, Kenny Moore, is one of the best nickels in the league.

However, Nico Collins went for 117 yards on six receptions and Stefon Diggs scored two touchdowns.

Pass protection will be vital. The Colts had four sacks last week, including 1.5 by Buckner and 1.0 by former first-round pick Kwity Paye. This year’s first-round pick, Laiatu Latu, had a team-high five pressures in his debut, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Usually with a backup quarterback, checkdown players and those who play in the middle of the field have a better opportunity to make plays than those outside the numbers.

If Love were playing, the Packers would have the advantage with Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks facing JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones, both of whom were picked apart by Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Since he’s not, it’s hard to predict this matchup in favor of Green Bay.

Advantage: Colts

Colts Rush Offense

Death, taxes and the Packers being unable to stop the run.

Those are the three guarantees in life.

Nothing changed last week as the Packers were lit up by Saquon Barkley for more than 100 yards and three total touchdowns.

The Eagles’ best player on Friday night was Barkley. The Colts’ best player on offense is Jonathan Taylor.

When healthy, the former Wisconsin Badgers star is one of the best backs in the league. The 2021 NFL rushing champion and Offensive Player of the Year rushed for 741 yards (4.4 average) and seven touchdowns in 10 games last year. He’s tough to tackle – ranking 12th in yards after contact per carry last year, according to Pro Football Focus – and has home-run speed.

The Texans limited him to 48 yards on 16 carries. He averaged just 1.81 yards after contact and didn’t break any tackles. The key is to stop him before he can get going.

With 4.43 speed in the 40, quarterback Anthony Richardson is a gifted runner, as well. He ran for 56 yards on six carries vs. Houston and has averaged 6.2 yards per run in his brief career. The Packers faced a similar challenge last week with Jalen Hurts, but they were able to contain him to just 33 yards on 13 carries.

With Love on the sideline, Green Bay’s defense is going to be under an even bigger microscope. That starts with one of the most basic principles of football, stopping the run.

Advantage: Colts

Colts Pass Offense

The Colts’ passing offense was the ultimate boom-or-bust product against the Texans.

Richardson completed only nine passes but three of them were for more than 50 yards, including touchdowns of 60 yards to Alec Pierce and 54 yards to Ashton Dulin. His other six completions were for 41 yards.

Richardson’s physical talent is undeniable. The questions about whether he can be consistent on a play-to-play basis are pretty pronounced at this stage of his career.

The Packers had some bright moments and some low ones in their opener against Hurts. They intercepted two passes but were unable to generate much of a pass rush and Jaire Alexander gave up a 67-yard touchdown to A.J. Brown.

If the Packers are going to play more man coverage under Jeff Hafley than they did Joe Barry, they are at more of a risk to give up big plays.

The Colts don’t have a receiver in the same realm as Brown or DeVonta Smith, but Michael Pittman Jr. is coming off seasons of 88 receptions in 2021, 99 in 2022 and 109 in 2023. Pierce, who caught three passes for 125 yards vs. Houston, has a career average of 16.2 yards per catch.

The key to this matchup will be Green Bay’s pass rush forcing Richardson into some mistakes. That won’t be easy. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann and right tackle Braden Smith form an excellent tandem, and left guard Quenton Nelson is one of the best in the business. According to PFF, the Colts’ starting five didn’t give up a sack or quarterback hit last week.

Advantage: Packers

Special Teams

In last year’s special teams rankings by Rick Gosselin, the Colts finished 15th and the Packers were 29th.

The Packers did not have many chances in the return game against the Eagles. Keisean Nixon’s only kickoff return came in the final seconds and Reed didn’t return either of the two punts he fielded.

Green Bay’s kicking situation is a work in progress. Brayden Narveson made three field goals but hit the right upright from 43 yards. Daniel Whelan punted twice and didn’t give elite returner Britain Covey a return opportunity.

The Colts’ kicker is Matt Gay and their punter is Rigoberto Sanchez. Gay is 85.9 percent on field goals in five seasons. Sanchez averaged 50.7 yards per punt last week, with all three placing the Texans inside the 20.

Rookie Anthony Gould handles both sets of returns for the Colts; he averaged 27.3 yards per kickoff return vs. Houston.

It’s hard to draw conclusions from anything based on one game.

Advantage: Push

More Green Bay Packers News

In the aftermath of the #Packers' disappointing loss to the Eagles on Friday, here are:

Three reasons to worry: https://t.co/jTvK52OlHp

Three reasons for optimism: https://t.co/v8cqEZ1JFO
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 9, 2024

Published Sep 10, 2024

JACOB WESTENDORF