Packer Central

Packers-Dolphins Matchups: Who Has Advantage?

The Green Bay Packers will welcome the Miami Dolphins to Lambeau Field for a Thanksgiving night showdown. Here is a look at the matchups.

Jacob Westendorf

Tua Tagovailoa will lead the Miami Dolphins into Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers.
Tua Tagovailoa will lead the Miami Dolphins into Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers. / Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images
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The Green Bay Packers were not in any mood to apologize for beating the San Francisco 49ers into submission on Sunday.

Sunday’s win puts the Packers at 8-3 and sitting pretty in the playoff picture with a two-game lead over the Washington Commanders for the final spot in the NFC playoffs.

On Thanksgiving night, the Packers will face the red-hot Miami Dolphins, winners of three straight and with an offense that is humming with the return of Tua Tagovailoa.

Here is a look at the matchups for Green Bay’s first home Thanksgiving game since 2015.

Pass Offense

Miami’s offense has been a tale of two seasons.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a scary concussion early this season, which sidelined him for four games. The Dolphins predictably struggled without him.

Now, Tagovailoa is back, and the Dolphins have won three consecutive games, including a drubbing of the New England Patriots on Sunday.

In his five games since returning to the lineup, the Dolphins have averaged 29.0 points per game. Tagovailoa ranks fifth in the NFL in passer rating, including second since his return. He’s helped raise Miami’s offense from the dead and thrust it back into the AFC playoff picture.

Tagovailoa is not alone.

The theme of Miami’s offense is speed. That starts with a man they call Cheetah.

Tyreek Hill, who rose to stardom with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, has thrived in Miami. He had 119 receptions in each of his first two seasons, with 1,710 yards in 2022 and an NFL-leading 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2023.

He’ll need a fantastic finish to this season to reach those marks. He has 49 receptions for 571 yards and three touchdowns, clearly with the caveat that his starting quarterback missed significant time.

Even while he hasn’t topped 80 yards since Week 1, Hill is as big of a threat as there is in the NFL.

He’s not alone, of course. The Dolphins added first-round pick Jaylen Waddle with the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Waddle, like Hill, is a big play waiting to happen. He led the NFL with 18.1 yards per catch in 2022, topped 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons, and is coming off a game of eight catches for 144 yards and one touchdown vs. New England.

Running back DeVon Achane and Hill lead the team with 49 receptions, tight end Jonnu Smith has 48 (with three touchdowns the last two weeks) and Waddle has 41.

Safe to say, Miami is not the team to be missing your secondary against.

However, cornerback Jaire Alexander did not play in Sunday’s game against San Francisco due to a knee injury and probably will be out on Thursday.

Through his frequent absences, Green Bay’s secondary has struggled to piece together the best combination of defensive backs.

Advantage: Dolphins

Rush Offense

The whole world knew the 49ers had to run the ball on Sunday to have any chance against Green Bay.

That hasn’t stopped them from running wild on the Packers before.

Sunday’s game, however, was a different story, with the Packers limiting Christian McCaffrey to 31 yards on 11 carries and Jordan Mason to 8 yards on three carries.

Ultimately, the Packers only gave up 54 yards on 16 carries. Some of that was due to the scoreboard, but the Packers were able to hold that dynamic backfield in check when they got their opportunities.

Miami’s backfield is built on speed, with De’Von Achane leading the way with 132 carries for 562 yards (4.3 average). He led the NFL with a staggering 7.7-yard average as a rookie last year.

Rookie Jaylen Wright (59 carries, 243 yards, 4.1 average) and former Packers nemesis Raheem Mostert (60 carries, 217 yards, 3.6 average) also have gotten opportunities.

The Dolphins are 16th with 116.8 rushing yards per game and 23rd with 4.07 yards per carry.

The Packers on defense rank 12th in rushing yards per game (112.7) and ninth in yards allowed per carry (4.28).

It’s a slight advantage for Green Bay, which is coming off one of its better performances of the season.

Advantage: Green Bay  

Pass Defense

One of Miami’s best players in the secondary is someone familiar to the Packers.

Cornerback Jalen Ramsey was a member of the Los Angeles Rams that faced the Packers in 2020 and 2021. His assignment those days was Davante Adams.

Ramsey won’t have Adams waiting for him this time. It’s hard to envision Ramsey will be asked to shadow any of Green Bay’s receivers. He has two interceptions and seven passes defensed and allowed a passer rating of just 78.2, according to Pro Football Focus.

One of Green Bay’s best receivers, Romeo Doubs, suffered a concussion against the 49ers. Can he clear the concussion protocol between now and Thursday night? That feels unlikely.

The next man up would be Dontayvion Wicks, who has struggled this season, though he did have a big moment on Sunday, when he caught an in-breaking route from Jordan Love that went for 25 yards in the fourth quarter.

Miami’s defense is ranked eighth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game and fifth in passing yards per attempt. It could be down a starter, too, with cornerback Kendall Fuller joining Doubs in the concussion protocol.

Green Bay’s passing offense has yet to find consistency.

Love has taken better care of the ball the last two weeks, and he’ll need to do so again with Ramsey lurking.

Miami’s pass rush is spearheaded by defensive tackles Calais Campbell and Zach Sieler with four sacks apiece. Rookie Chop Robinson and Emmanuel Ogbah have 3.5 sacks apiece. The Dolphins rank just 26th in sacks (21) and sack percentage.

The Packers have done a good job of protecting Love. Both of San Francisco’s sacks on Sunday were more so on Love for leaving the pocket than the offensive line missing a protection.

Advantage: Push

Rush Defense

This is an advantage the Packers are going to have on a weekly basis.

Despite all the glitz and glamor that came with Jordan Love’s contract extension in the offseason, it was general manager Brian Gutekunst’s swap in the backfield that has been the most important addition to Green Bay’s offense.

Josh Jacobs has set a physical tone each of the last two weeks.

He carried the ball five times for 37 yards on Sunday’s opening drive. He ran over, around and through a 49ers defense that looked nothing like the group that had dominated the Packers in the recent past.

The Packers ran for 169 yards on 41 carries against San Francisco. Jacobs had 106 of those yards and, per Next Gen Stats, broke 15 tackles.

Green Bay is up to third in rushing with 151.6 yards per game.

Miami’s defense is, however, a formidable opponent. It ranks ninth with 106.9 rushing yards allowed per game but 16th with 4.34 yards allowed per carry.

It’s anchored by the ageless Calais Campbell. The 38-year-old remains productive, ranking in the top five in PFF’s run-stops stat.

The rest of the defensive line is truly a collective effort, which was going to be required after the loss of Christian Wilkins in the offseason.

Linebacker Jordyn Brooks leads the team with 95 tackles. Safety Jordan Poyer is next with 60.

With the inconsistencies the Packers have had with their passing game, they’ve leaned on Jacobs and their ground game.

Green Bay has the advantage here, but if Miami can slow them down, this game could get interesting quickly for Green Bay’s offense.

Advantage: Packers

Special Teams

In a matchup of the stoppable force meeting the moveable object, Miami’s special teams ranked 31st in Rick Gosselin’s special teams rankings last season while Green Bay was 29th. 

Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders is 21-of-25 on field goals and perfect on extra points. He’s 7-of-9 from 50-plus yards with a long of 56.

Punter Jack Bailey ranks 28th with a net average of 40.0 yards per punt. He’s had one blocked.

The Packers know what it’s like to block a kick recently.

Karl Brooks was the hero of Green Bay’s 20-19 win over the Bears, blocking Cairo Santos’ 46-yard field goal as time expired to lift the Packers to victory.

With the weather reaching the end of November, perhaps the Packers will see more kickoff-return opportunities for Keisean Nixon.

Nixon has not had many chances this season but is able to strike at any moment. He had a 93-yard return at Miami in 2022.

Sanders, though, has a touchback rate of 75.9 percent and Miami ranks second in kickoff coverage.

Green Bay’s kicking game has found stability with punter Daniel Whelan and kicker Brandon McManus. Whelan is eighth with a net average of 43.4 yards while McManus has misfired just once since joining the Packers and made a 51-yard field goal on Sunday, which was the first attempt longer than 50 yards for the Packers this season.

Kick coverage was a bit of a concern on Sunday. They gave up an 82-yard kickoff return to Deebo Samuel, though it was nullified by a dubious holding penalty. Ricky Pearsall had two punt returns wiped out via penalty, as well. They’ll need to shore that up before Thursday’s game.

Advantage: Packers

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Jacob Westendorf
JACOB WESTENDORF