Packers in NFL Playoffs: Latest Probabilities, Strength of Schedule

The computers like the Green Bay Packers’ playoff chances but a challenging closing schedule will add to the challenge.

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers are sitting pretty in the NFC playoff race. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers will take an 8-3 record into their Thursday night showdown against the surging Miami Dolphins.

With six games remaining, they are in a good spot in the NFC playoff race. They are in sixth place, one game behind Minnesota for the No. 5 seed and two games ahead in the race for the No. 7 seed.

Here’s a look at the playoff picture with the latest probabilities.

Latest NFC Playoff Standings

Here are the updated NFC standings, with strength of schedule. The Packers rank No. 7 in remaining schedule difficulty, according to Tankathon.

1. Detroit Lions: 10-1 (first place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule: Sixth (.591)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-2 (first place, NFC East)

Strength of schedule: 22nd (.471)

3. Seattle Seahawks: 6-5 (first place, NFC West)

Strength of schedule: Ninth (.530)

4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-5 (first place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule: 24th (.448)

5. Minnesota Vikings: 9-2 (second place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule: Fourth (.606)

6. Green Bay Packers: 8-3 (third place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule: Seventh (.576)

7. Washington Commanders: 7-5 (second place, NFC East)                                        

Strength of schedule: 21st (.473)

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8. Arizona Cardinals: 6-5 (second place, NFC West)

Strength of schedule: 23rd (.463)

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-6 (second place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule: 30th (.348)

10. Los Angeles Rams: 5-6 (third place, NFC West)

Strength of schedule: 15th (.500)

11. San Francisco 49ers: 5-6 (fourth place, NFC West)

Strength of schedule: Fifth (.591)

12. New Orleans Saints: 4-7 (third place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule: 26th (.433)

13. Chicago Bears: 4-7 (fourth place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule: First (.727)

14. Dallas Cowboys: 4-7 (third place, NFC East)

Strength of schedule: 24th (.448)

15. Carolina Panthers: 3-8 (fourth place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule: Ninth (.530)

16. New York Giants: 2-9 (last place, NFC East)

Strength of schedule: 11th (.529)

Latest NFL Playoff Probabilities

According to The New York Times’ interactive playoff simulator, the Packers have a 95 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Based on almost 60,000 simulations, that would move to 98 percent with a victory over the Dolphins. Even with a loss, that would dip only a bit to 93 percent.

What if the Packers won out? They’d have a 24 percent chance of earning the No. 1 seed and a 25 percent chance of hosting a first-round playoff game.

According to NFL.com, the Packers have a 92 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs. If they beat the Dolphins, that would rise to 97 percent. If they lose on Thanksgiving, that would fall to 85 percent.

Interestingly, in the NFC West, the division-leading Seahawks have a 41 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, which is worse than the Cardinals, who have a 52 percent chance. The Packers could play at the NFC West champion in the wild-card round.

According to ESPN, the Packers have a 97 percent chance of reaching the playoffs but only a 5 percent chance of beating the Lions in the NFC North.

According to Playoff Status, the Packers have a 95 percent chance of reaching the playoffs.

Breaking it down, Green Bay is at 27 percent to win the No. 5 seed, 49 percent to earn the No. 6 and 16 percent to wind up No. 7. The most likely opponent is Atlanta at 28 percent.

Latest NFL Playoff Odds

The Packers are -1800 to reach the playoffs at FanDuel Sportsbook and -1600 at DraftKings. By implied probability based on the FanDuel odds, Green Bay has a 94.7 percent chance of reaching the playoffs.

They are -1000 to be a wild card at BetMGM, the shortest odds in the NFC.

Challenging Closing Schedule

The Packers can’t take their foot off the gas, though. Of their final six opponents, the first five are on winning streaks.

The Dolphins are hot, so long as they can withstand the cold.

“The short weeks are tough, but obviously trying to get as much film in as possible and understand who you’re going against and then the game plan,” quarterback Jordan Love said.

“We have a short week, we’re cramming two days into one today with third downs and red zone. So, everybody being locked in here, staying in the playbook when we get home and, obviously, getting our bodies back and having everybody healthy is kind of the key.

After that are challenging back-to-back road games. The Lions are the most dominant team in the league. And the Seahawks, who are battling for the NFC West and a playoff spot, have a premier homefield advantage.

Week 13: Miami Dolphins (5-6; won three in a row)

Week 14: at Detroit Lions (10-1; won nine in a row)

Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks (6-5; won two in a row after losing of five six before their bye)

Week 16: New Orleans Saints (4-7; won two in a row before this week’s bye)

Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings (9-2; won four in a row)

Week 18: Chicago Bears (4-7; lost five in a row)

Latest Green Bay Packers News 

A player from the #Packers practice squad was poached. ⬇️https://t.co/5j4EKRdPIf

And here's the Tuesday injury report. ⬇️https://t.co/CMdSrs21ly

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 26, 2024

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