Packers-Jaguars Matchups: Who Has Advantage?

The Green Bay Packers will visit Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Which units have the advantage?

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is all smiles during a victory over the Patriots in London on Sunday. / Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images

What a difference a week makes.

A week ago, we were looking at a measuring-stick type of game between the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans.

With new kicker Brandon McManus’ game-winning field goal, the Packers proved their mettle by winning a hard-fought battle.

The Texans are considered Super Bowl contenders. This week’s opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, are not.

The Jaguars are 2-5 after beating the New England Patriots in London last week.

If there is such a thing as a trap game, this would certainly fit the description. The Packers are favored on the road. They are coming off an emotional win against a contender and have the Detroit Lions on the schedule for next week.

There are no gimmes in the NFL, but if the Packers stay focused, they absolutely should win.

Here is a look at this week’s Packers-Jaguars matchups.

Pass Offense

Trevor Lawrence was in a race with Jordan Love this offseason for who was going to get his contract extension first.

Lawrence won, with his deal being completed before training camp. Love’s deal was not done until shortly after camp started.

That’s the last race Lawrence has won with Love, as his team has been one of the NFL’s big disappointments.

Lawrence was considered a generational quarterback prospect when Jacksonville picked him first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. His first season in Jacksonville was a disaster, which was largely pinned on the ill-advised hire of former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer.

Meyer was replaced with Doug Pederson, and Lawrence found himself in the playoffs during his second season.

The prevailing thought was the Jaguars were a team on the rise, and Lawrence was the next great quarterback.

That has not come to fruition.

Since a stunning come-from-behind victory over the Chargers preceded a divisional-round loss to the Chiefs in the 2022 playoffs, the Jaguars are 11-13.

While Love is second in the NFL with 15 touchdowns, Lawrence has taken care of the ball with nine touchdowns to just three interceptions. He is 16th in passer rating (92.3), just behind Love (14th, 94.1).

By percentage, no quarterback has been victimized by more drops than Lawrence.

His leading receiver is rookie sensation Brian Thoams Jr. Thomas has 30 catches, averages 17.1 yards per reception and has scored four touchdowns.

Christian Kirk is a dangerous slot receiver who could give the Packers problems if they’re too focused on Thomas. He has 25 receptions for 320 yards (12.8 average) and one touchdown.

Tight end Evan Engram, who caught 114 passes last season, returned from a four-game absence last week to catch five passes vs. the Patriots.

The Packers’ pass rush was one of the keys in beating C.J. Stroud and the Texans last week. By percentage of dropbacks, Lawrence has seen the fifth-lowest pressure rate. He wasn’t even touched by the Patriots. The Jaguars rank 11th in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency and 14th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate.

Advantage: Packers

Rush Offense

After a big performance against the Arizona Cardinals, the Packers were beaten up by the Texans’ Joe Mixon. Mixon ran for 115 yards and two touchdowns.

To Green Bay’s credit, it slowed down Mixon in the second half and stuffed him on first and second down during the final moments.

Jacksonville’s run game is dynamic, ranking fourth with 5.12 yards per carry.

Tank Bigsby is averaging 6.2 yards per carry – second-best among running backs – and has topped 100 yards two of the last three weeks.

Travis Etienne Jr is a former first-round pick who is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. He missed the New England game with a hamstring injury and his status for Sunday is unclear.

If Green Bay is not sound in the run game, it could get gashed. The Packers been better this year than they have in recent years. Although that is a low bar to clear, they’ll need to be better this week than they were against Mixon.

Advantage: Jaguars

Pass Defense

Jordan Love giveth, Jordan Love taketh away.

Love has made a killing on making big plays this season.

He’s also made some killer mistakes.

Through Week 7, Love is tied for second in the NFL with 15 touchdown passes but tied for first with eight interceptions. Both feats are remarkable considering he missed two games with a knee injury.

One thing Love made clear is he is not going to be timid.

“You’ve got to go out there and play it,” he said. “You can’t try and not be aggressive and just take checkdowns all day. You’ve got to be out there and be aggressive and go win those games. I’m going to always play the way I play and learn from the mistakes and grow from them.”

After facing a tough defense last week in Houston, the degree of difficulty should be significantly easier this week.

Jacksonville’s defense is at the bottom of the NFL.

They’re ranked 32nd in opponent passer rating and Defensive DVOA. They’ve allowed 16 touchdown passes with just one interception. Opposing passers are completing nearly 71 percent of their passes.

Love might not need a traditional get-right game, but this is one where he should be able to play similarly to the way he did against Arizona two weeks ago.

If there’s one thing this defense has the potential to do well, it’s get after the quarterback. Travon Walker has six sacks. Josh Hines-Allen, who had 17.5 sacks last season, has 2.5 this year. But the Jags are only 25th in sack percentage.

Green Bay did a relatively good job slowing down Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. Pressuring Love is almost the only way the Jaguars can stay with Green Bay’s offense.

Standout cornerback Tyson Campbell returned from injured reserve last week. Former Packers safety Darnell Savage starts and has two pass breakups.

Advantage: Packers

Rush Defense

Josh Jacobs may not get 20 touches per game, but he’s been effective with his opportunities.

Against the Texans, he carried 12 times for 76 yards, a 6.3 average. He was decisive and effective when he was able to run downhill.

The ancillary runners like Jayden Reed, Christian Watson and Bo Melton were ineffective on Sunday but have been a nice change of pace.

It will be a challenge this week. The Jaguars are sixth against the run (102.6 per game) and seventh per carry (4.15). They were gashed by the Bears for 152 rushing yards (5.2 average) two weeks ago but bounced back to hold the Patriots to just 38 on a 2.5-yard average last week.

Nose tackle DaVon Hamilton can be hard to move in the run game. Devin Lloyd and Chad Murna are the primary linebackers, with Lloyd leading the team with 47 tackles.

Advantage: Packers

Special Teams

Brandon McManus made his mark early in his Packers’ tenure by drilling a 45-yard field goal through the uprights to win Sunday’s game.

Daniel Whelan was excellent both as a punter and a holder. He became the first punter since 2022 with a gross average of 56-plus yards and a net average of 51-plus yards.

Both players received game balls from Matt LaFleur for their performance.

That’s about where the good news ends for Green Bay’s special teams from Sunday’s game.

Keisean Nixon and Jayden Reed made egregious mistakes in the punt return game. One resulted in a turnover by Nixon. The other cost the Packers at least 15 yards of field position. They also gave up a long kickoff return to Dameon Piece that helped set up one of Houston’s scoring drives.

It’s hard to have a poor performance when your kicker makes a game-winning field goal, but that’s exactly what the Packers did on Sunday.

Jacksonville’s special teams finished ninth in Rick Gosselin’s special team’s rankings for 2023 and they are No. 3 by PFF’s grading this year.

Former All-Pro returner Devin Duvernay is on injured reserve. Last week, however, receiver Parker Washington returned a punt 96 yards for a touchdown and had a 27-yard return on his only kickoff return.

Kicker Cam Little is 11-of-12 on field goals (long of 53) and 14-of-14 on extra points.

Punter Logan Cooke is second in the NFL with a net average of 44.9 yards with 12 inside-the-20s and zero touchbacks.

This is Jacksonville’s best phase.

Advantage: Jaguars

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