Packers-Jaguars Preview: Big Opportunity for Jordan Love

The Green Bay Packers will play at the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. On both sides of the ball, the run game will be the key.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) against the Houston Texans on Sunday. / William Glasheen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

 

With less than a week until Halloween, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love could be ready for a monster game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Packers enter Sunday’s game on a three-game winning streak, including 24-22 over the Houston Texans last week in a game featuring seven lead changes. Ultimately, they secured the win with a game-winning drive directed by Love and capped by new kicker Brandon McManus’ 45-yard field goal as time expired.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars finished their London trip 1-1, with a dominant 32-16 victory over the New England Patriots. Just like last week against C.J. Stroud, the Packers will be facing a team that played the Pats the week prior.

The Packers have some familiarity with the AFC South, as this will be their last matchup against the division this season. They’ve already beaten the Titans, Colts and Texans; a win over the Jaguars would complete the sweep.

The Packers and Jaguars have faced each other seven times, with Green Bay leading the series 5-2. The last time they met was in Green Bay in 2020, when Aaron Rodgers led a game-winning drive, throwing the go-ahead touchdown to Davante Adams with 6 minutes left for a 24-20 victory. 

The Jaguars’ last win over the Packers came in 2008, when Maurice Jones-Drew scored the game-winning touchdown with 2 minutes left for a 20-16 win.

Love and the Packers will look to exploit the Jaguars’ struggling defense, which ranks 30th in points allowed per game (27.7). On the flip side, Green Bay’s offense ranks seventh with 26.6 points per game. This should provide a favorable matchup for the Packers as they aim to build momentum for next week’s Lambeau Field showdown against the Detroit Lions.

Jacksonville ranks last in the NFL in opponent passer rating (113.7). Even in winning two of its last three games, it is last over that span with an opponent ranking of 120.9.

One key area in which Jacksonville has struggled is defending tight ends, giving up a 122.4 passer rating, which ranks 28th in the league.

Green Bay’s Tucker Kraft has taken full advantage of his opportunities this season, becoming a reliable target for Love. Kraft has hauled in 21 receptions for 264 yards and four touchdowns, including a touchdown against the Texans in which Love fired a bullet that went through the hands of a defender and Kraft made a tough grab in the end zone.

Jacksonville’s strength is in its run defense, which ranks seventh in the NFL with 4.14 yards allowed per carry. Green Bay’s offense has been equally impressive on the ground, where it ranks fifth in yards per game (155.0) and sixth in yards per carry (4.98).

Josh Jacobs has led the charge, ranking fourth in the NFL with 540 rushing yards.

The key for the Packers will be to protect Love against Jaguars defensive ends Travon Wilson (six sacks in 2024) and Josh Hines-Allen (17.5 sacks in 2023).

“I think the first thing I see is their d-line,” Love said. “I think they have a really solid pass rush. Obviously, their two edge guys, they’re both really good players. I think right away those guys stand out and do some good things.”

The Jaguars also have an excellent ground game, ranking fourth with 5.12 yards per carry. While Travis Etienne is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, it’s been Tank Bigsby who leads the charge with a third-ranked 6.19 yards per carry. In the Jaguars’ two recent wins, he topped 100 rushing yards with two rushing touchdowns in both.

Green Bay’s run defense, which comes in at ninth with 4.34 yards allowed per carry, will be tested. After getting trounced by Joe Mixon during the first half last week, it was much stouter during the second half.

They’ll have to be strong from the start against the Jaguars. If not, quarterback Trevor Lawrence could have a big day. Lawrence, with 100-plus passer ratings two of the past three weeks, has been much better off play-action than standard dropbacks. According to Pro Football Focus, his completion percent is 10.3 percent better and his yards per attempt is up 4.1 yards on play-action. Both are among the largest differences in the NFL.

Of course, the best way to neutralize Jacksonville’s rushing attack is to score a lot of points so the Jaguars stop running the ball.

From that perspective, Love likes the Packers’ level of explosiveness. Green Bay is tied for third with 59 explosive plays, which includes a second-ranked 26 explosive runs (12-plus yards) and a seventh-ranked 33 explosive passes (18-plus yards).

“I think we’re in a good place,” he said. “I think the biggest thing we’ve got to clean up as a whole is just consistency. When we get more consistent in hitting on every play we have an opportunity to, good things will happen.

“You see the explosive plays, the big-play kind of mentality we have is to go hunt those explosive plays. We’ve got a lot of playmakers who are making some big-time plays.”

Even with the offense in a good spot, Love has thrown an interception in each of his five games. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have intercepted only one pass.

“There are always so many different things,” Love said. “I think the first one is just read-based, staying true to my reads and understanding what the nickel is trying to do right there. The second one is just cleaning up, when I do feel that pressure, finding a way to get the ball down and not putting it up for grabs over the middle.”

Love will look to clean things up this week and finally put a zero in the interception column. While the Jaguars’ 2-5 record may make it seem easier on paper, three of their losses have been by five points or less.

“They could be 5-2, sitting the same as us right now,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “So, I think that speaks to who this football team is. They’ve got weapons in every phase of the game. They’ve got receivers that are explosive, the tight end is explosive. They’ve got two runners. They’ve got a franchise quarterback. And then I think you look at the defensive side of the ball, and just their ability to get after the quarterback is, it’s real. They’ve got two edge rushers that are two of the best in the game.

“We’ve got to play a consistent four quarters against this team. This is a very good team. This is the National Football League, so you better get ready to play your best each and every week.”

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