Packer Central

Packers-Lions Matchups: Who Has Advantage In Rematch?

A lot has changed since the Packers lost to the Lions on Nov. 3. Here’s a fresh look at the matchups for Thursday night’s game at Ford Field.

Jacob Westendorf

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs for a first down against Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph on Nov. 3.
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs for a first down against Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph on Nov. 3. / Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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There’s no rest for the weary. The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers will play on Thursday Night Football after both teams played on Thanksgiving.

Detroit jumped out to a 16-0 lead before holding on late to beat the Chicago Bears.

The Packers jumped out to a 27-3 lead at home before finishing off the Miami Dolphins.

These teams have met before, so let’s start with what happened then, and how things have changed.

On Nov. 3 at soggy Lambeau Field, the Lions asserted their dominance, taking a 24-3 lead early in the third quarter before the game mostly gave way to garbage time. The Packers didn’t score a touchdown until there were less than 4 minutes left in the fourth quarter.

The Lions were that dominant despite not having Brian Branch for the majority of the game. Branch was ejected for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Packers reserve receiver Bo Melton.

That was win No. 6 in Detroit’s 10-game winning streak. For Green Bay, that was its only loss in the last eight games.

The Lions are Super Bowl favorites. Are the Packers contenders?

This week’s game will go a long way toward answering that question.

The Lions added a familiar face to their pass rush since that first game with Za’Darius Smith. The Packers signed him in 2019, and he was a Pro Bowler in 2019 and a second-team All-Pro in 2020, but played in just one game in 2021 and released at the end of the season.

Smith, who was acquired by Detroit at the trade deadline, sacked Caleb Williams on the penultimate play of Detroit’s 23-20 win over the Bears on Thanksgiving.

For the Packers, who need to win to have any chance of winning the NFC North, little has changed from a personnel standpoint. Perhaps Jaire Alexander could be active this week? He was not for the first meeting between these teams.

Here are the rest of the matchups for Thursday’s NFC North Showdown.

Pass Offense

The last time these teams met, Goff was solid if unspectacular. He completed his first 11 passes and finished 18-of-22, despite the windy and rainy conditions at Lambeau Field.

There will be no such concern this time at Ford Field.

Goff threw for 145 yards, including a 3-yard touchdown on fourth-and-goal to Amon-Ra St. Brown against Keisean on Detroit’s opening possession.

That’s about all the Lions asked from Goff in that game: be efficient and convert on third downs.

He is capable of more than that, and is surrounded by weapons that help make his life much easier.

St. Brown, who wore a “GREENBAY SUCKS” sweatshirt before the last game, is probably the best slot receiver in football. He relishes any opportunity to play against the Packers.

Sam LaPorta was the top rookie tight end a season ago. He scored two touchdowns on Thursday.

Jameson Williams did not play in the first game between these teams but is one of the fastest players in football and capable of striking for a big play at any moment.

This Lions’ offense is deep, talented and capable of winning any style of fight.

Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley thinks Rashan Gary is starting to emerge, and maybe he is. He had sacks in wins over the Bears and 49ers coming out of the bye and has looked more like the player who earned a four-year $96 million extension last season.

Gary didn’t have a sack against the Dolphins, but five Packers had one sack apiece. They’ll need more of that against Goff and the Lions’ powerful offensive line.

The Packers have played musical chairs at defensive end since trading Preston Smith. Kingsley Enagbare and Colby Wooden have started games in the aftermath of the trade.

They’re looking for someone to be consistent across from Gary. Perhaps they are getting a spark from Lukas Van Ness, who has a sack in each of his last two games.

Nonetheless, the consistency in this phase favors the Lions.

Advantage: Lions

Rush Offense

It’s another meeting for Green Bay’s run defense against the Lions’ talented backfield known as Sonic and Knuckles.

That, of course, is Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

Gibbs moves at a different speed than seemingly everyone on the field. Montgomery is the powerful back that helps set Detroit’s identity.

Montgomery rushed 17 times for 73 yards (4.3 average) and Gibbs carried 11 times for 65 yards (5.9 average) in the first matchup. The game was over, for all intents and purposes, after Gibbs’ 15-yard touchdown run gave the Lions a 24-3 lead to open the third quarter.

With a combined 175 rushing yards on 30 carries against the Bears, Montgomery (88 rushing yards) and Gibbs (87) had nice days, with one exception: Gibbs lost the first fumble for the Lions since the Packers won at Detroit last Thanksgiving.

With eight carries for 56 yards this season, Jameson Williams might be part of Detroit’s ground game.

The Lions, like the Packers, have a powerful rushing attack. It’s the identity of their football team.

Their offensive line may be the best in football. They could be looking to run the ball early and often against Green Bay’s defense.

Highlighted by a strong performance against the Dolphins, Green Bay’s defense is up to eighth in yards allowed per carry and yards allowed per game.

Advantage: Lions

Pass Defense

Jordan Love is coming off his best performance of the season.

His 129.2 passer rating was his highest of the season, and he did that despite missing one of his most reliable targets with Romeo Doubs in the concussion protocol.

The Packers hope Doubs will be back this week. They’ll need all hands on deck against Detroit’s ball-hawking secondary.

Safety Kerby Joseph is tied with Xavier McKinney for the NFL lead with seven interceptions. Fellow safety Brian Branch has four. Joseph made the biggest play of the first game, intercepting Love and returning the ball it for a touchdown to put the game out of reach for Green Bay’s helpless offense.

With Love no longer hobbled by knee and groin injuries, he is taking better care of the ball. He’s turned over the ball just once in three games since the bye.

The Lions are in a bit of a transition rushing the passer. Aidan Hutchinson was a leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year with 7.5 sacks when he suffered a broken leg on Oct. 13. He will miss at least the rest of the regular season.

His injury necessitated the trade for Za’Darius Smith, who has two sacks and six quarterback hits in his three games.

Detroit’s pass rush ran out of gas against Chicago, and its secondary does have holes that can be exploited, as evidenced by Caleb Williams’ big second half at Ford Field.

Injuries have really affected the Lions’ defense. Linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez and defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo suffered season-ending knee injuries against Chicago. Rodriguez is the fourth linebacker on IR. Defensive end Josh Paschal and defensive tackle Levi Onwuzurike, who is second on the team in quarterback hits, are not expected to play on Thursday.

Cornerback Carlton Davis is day-to-day, as well.

Due to the uncertainty with Detroit’s pass rush and Love’s better play, the nod goes to Green Bay.

Advantage: Packers

Rush Defense

Josh Jacobs is coming off a tough performance against Miami. He finished with 43 yards on 19 carries, matching his season-low output of 43 yards on 14 carries at Tennessee in Week 3.

Still, Green Bay’s ground game is lethal, and was productive against Detroit in their last meeting before the game got away from them. The Packers ran for 100 yards in the first half, which was their fourth game with more than 100 yards in the first half this season.

Detroit has flirted with the top of the NFL in rush defense all season.  

It shut down Chicago’s run game on Thanksgiving, and has held opponents to a fifth-ranked 93.5 yards per game.

Something that could be play a factor is the health of Detroit’s front. The potential for Detroit to be missing multiple contributors clearly swings this in Green Bay’s advantage.

If the Lions were healthy, this would have been strength vs. strength with perhaps a slight advantage for Green Bay. Due to injuries, however, this matchup goes in favor of Green Bay thanks to the brilliance of Jacobs and the diversity of LaFleur’s ground attack.

Advantage: Packers

Special Teams

Green Bay’s special teams have ridden the rollercoaster this season but are coming off a big performance against Miami.

Coming out of the bye, they played the role of hero against the Bears with Karl Brooks blocking a last-gasp field goal from Cairo Santos.

The following week, they were fortunate to not give up an 82-yard kickoff return to Deebo Samuel as it was nullified by a holding penalty.

They’re consistent in the kicking game with Brandon McManus providing stability at kicker. His only miss since joining the team came against the Lions at Lambeau.

Daniel Whelan has had a Pro Bowl type of season. His punting led to a fumble that was covered by Robert Rochell after the first possession vs. Miami.

Plus, Keisean Nixon had a big return to start Thursday’s game.

Something to always monitor when playing against Dan Campbell is his aggressive nature on special teams. Campbell tried a fake punt against Green Bay last year at Ford Field, but it failed after being snuffed out by Lukas Van Ness and Henry Pearson.

Campbell has been more reserved this year in calling fakes, but will not be shy if he sees an opportunity.

Overall, Detroit has been much better and more explosive on special teams. Punter Jack Fox is second in net average, kicker Jack Bates is first in field-goal percentage and 80 percent of Bates’ kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks.

While explosive punt returner Kalif Raymond is on injured reserve, the Lions have been more consistent.

Advantage: Lions

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Jacob Westendorf
JACOB WESTENDORF